Measuring the equity effects of a carbon charge on car commuters: A case study of Manchester Airport

This papers attempts to quantify the equity effect of a hypothesized economic instrument, a carbon charge on car commuters, for reducing carbon dioxide emissions produced by commuters on airport surface access. Manchester Airport is taken as a case study using staff Survey data from 2008 and 2010. Consumer welfare change is analysed for measuring the equity effects of carbon charge by user group, which considers the changes of travel mode choice, the carbon dioxide emissions reduction, the revenue from a carbon charge and how it is distributed. First, the individual carbon footprint in terms of gram passenger kilometre, and the damage cost of carbon by commuters on airport surface access are estimated. Next, the impact of carbon charge on travel behaviour is investigated by the nested logit model. Finally, the net effect of carbon charges is assessed by travel mode user, gender, job type, and age group. The results show some impacts of the carbon charge on car users and carbon reduction, and the positive effects on lower income group and less carbon commuters. The quantified results provide the evidences for the mitigation policies to combine monetary incentives with disincentives for travel behaviour change, and demonstrate the different equity effects among commuter groups.     

基于NL-累计前景理论的出行方式 选择预测模型研究

为改进效用理论在个体风险偏好、非完全理性决策、方式整体效用等方面的表述局限，联立出行方式与出发时段构建双因素出行方案，并建立基于巢式 Logit(NL)-累计前景理论的出行方式选择预测优化模型.通过累计前景理论将 NL模型所获方案客观效用及选择概率主观化，构建累计权重函数、价值函数并以前景值的形式描述出行方式对出行者的实际感知价值，最后通过调查数据进行建模与验证.结果表明，与仅基于 NL模型进行的方式预测相比，所建模型综合命中率从74.8%上升至85.2%，各方式预测命中率更为均衡.     

多层logit模型在TransCAD上的实现

概括地介绍了NL模型,并探讨了NL模型的关键问题--关于确定上下层结点的效用关联,重点分析了它在TransCAD上的实现过程及注意要点,并结合一实例阐述了NL模型在TransCAD中参数估计和应用的步骤.     

先进的旅行者信息系统对出行者选择行为的影响研究

目前研究先进的旅行者信息系统对出行者选择行为的影响主要集中在对路径选择行为的影响上,而忽略了对出行者出行终点和交通方式选择的影响。假定路网中的出行者一部分装有信息装置,另一部分没有装信息装置,利用离散选择理论中的层次选择结构模型和交通规划理论中的随机均衡方法,研究了先进的旅行者信息系统对出行者终点选择,方式分担和路径选择行为的综合影响,建立了一个与网络均衡条件等价的数学规划模型,设计了模型的求解算法,并用一算例分析了市场渗透率和信息质量对出行者选择行为的影响。     

Modeling travel mode choice of young people with differentiated E-hailing ride services in Nanjing China

E-hailing ride service (ERS) has become increasingly popular globally and is changing the urban mobility landscape. There is insufficient research effort in understanding the impact of ERS on travel behavior, in particular among young people. This paper aims to start filling that research gap by first collecting mode choice preference data through a stated preference survey in City of Nanjing, China and then applying nested logit (NL) models and a series of post-estimation analysis to address a number of key research questions of mode choice behavior without and with ERS. Three ERS modes are considered in the Chinese context: DiDi Taxi (D-Taxi), DiDi Express (D-Express), and DiDi Premier (D-Premier), all provided by DiDi Chuxing, the dominant ERS service provider in China. The study finds that age makes little difference in mode choice preference when ERS is introduced between the two age groups considered (18–30 and 31–45). The study results also suggest that young travelers are naturally drawn to ERS for what it represents (a technology innovation) and its business (pricing) model. ERS appears to be a competitive alternative to the conventional modes especially when they are under performed. The study also finds that ERS will likely increase vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) considerably, which will lead to increase in on-road vehicular emissions, unless some mechanism to switch users to ridesharing is in place.     

基于出行链方式的私人小汽车出行属性分析方法研究

在经济飞速增长,私人小汽车保有量迅速增加的背景下,本文以私人小汽车使用者为研究对象,旨在探索有效的出行行为分析方法,挖掘私人小汽车出行属性规律,为制定有效的私人小汽车管理措施,缓解城市交通拥挤提供重要的参考依据.本文首先从潜在内部属性和行为属性的角度对私人小汽车的出行属性进行分析;其次,引入基于家出行链分析方法,将基于...     

�Ǽ���·�͹�·��;���˵Ķ��۲���

城际铁路的规划建设,加剧了经济发达地区城际客运交通市场的竞争,而竞争的成败很大程度上取决于运营者是否能够采用吸引乘客的策略.本研究基于离散选择理论,使用Nested Logit模型分析出行者的城际交通方式选择行为,确定不同交通方式客运量与运输价格的关系,建立各交通方式的运营利润模型.并以运营票价为竞争策略变量,建立城际铁路和公路长途巴士运输的完全信息静态博弈模型,给出了纯策略和混合策略Nash均衡解的存在性和计算方法.案例计算表明,传统的Logit模型与本研究的Nested Logit模型给出不同的均衡价格,且Logit模型会过高估计公共运输企业的利润.本研究对于合理配置城际综合交通方式具有参考价值.     

都市圈通勤出行行为特性分析与建模

为研究都市圈范围内通勤出行的交通方式选择行为,分析出行特性,揭示个体属性、家庭属性及出行属性对方式选择的影响,本文建立都市圈通勤出行Nested Logit 模型,对北京都市圈内廊坊市“北三县”的4 385 个进京通勤者的出行方式选择机理进行研究. 结果表明,出行方式的费用、出行时间及换乘次数均对通勤者出行方式选择产生显著影响. 为验证模型的有效性,提出两种政策改善方案,分析各方案下出行方式划分率变化情况,数据显示综合改善效果下小汽车的出行方式比例下降2.46%,公交与地铁的出行比例分别提高1.73%和 0.75%,表明方案对交通方式分担率改善效果明显.     

都市圈通勤出行行为特性分析与建模

为研究都市圈范围内通勤出行的交通方式选择行为,分析出行特性,揭示个体属性、家庭属性及出行属性对方式选择的影响,本文建立都市圈通勤出行Nested Logit 模型,对北京都市圈内廊坊市“北三县”的4 385 个进京通勤者的出行方式选择机理进行研究. 结果表明,出行方式的费用、出行时间及换乘次数均对通勤者出行方式选择产生显著影响. 为验证模型的有效性,提出两种政策改善方案,分析各方案下出行方式划分率变化情况,数据显示综合改善效果下小汽车的出行方式比例下降2.46%,公交与地铁的出行比例分别提高1.73%和 0.75%,表明方案对交通方式分担率改善效果明显.