The impacts of changing flight demands and throughput performance on airport delays through the Great Recession

Several significant events between 2007 and 2009 impacted flight demands and the abilities of the three major New York area airports to handle demand. This paper assesses the results of applying a probabilistic simulation method – which isolates the individual contributions of changes in flight demand and changes in airport throughput performance to changes in flight delays – to diagnose how these different events may have caused operational changes at these airports, and in turn, how the results may be used to inform policies for appropriate countermeasures. The analysis revealed two key observations. Firstly, certain patterns in throughput performance shifts caused the most significant delays, and were more likely to have been caused by controller staffing issues rather than caps. Secondly, relatively constant average delays from one year to the next may result from significant demand drops accompanied by large throughput performance degradations at an airport. This suggests that not only operational limitations on capacity encourage airlines to reduce schedules, but that changed demands can also impact throughput performance. Overall, the analysis indicates that caps may not have provided their fully intended delay benefits. Although they successfully reduced overall flight demands at LGA and JFK, they also directly limited throughput performance at critical times, in turn limiting delay benefits. In addition, demands at the busiest times of the day appear to be relatively inelastic to these operational limitations, insofar as demand profiles at EWR and JFK remained “peaky” in 2008 and 2009. Also, the recession was largely responsible for reducing demands at the airports in 2009, but the delay benefits of this were dampened by a corresponding throughput performance degradation. Based on the above observations, a more direct demand management policy combined with policies that focus on maintaining high staffing capabilities at critical times of the day may be considered, to reduce the likelihood of major queue formation on days that do experience sustained demands. The results also suggest that a more flexible caps system, particularly during times of heavy queues, could be explored. Although airport practitioners have keen understandings of how their airports operate, without the support of quantitative analysis tools, it can be more difficult to argue the need for appropriate countermeasures. An analysis such as the one presented here can provide the detailed quantitative substantiation required to build cases for these targeted policy directives and infrastructure investments.     

Real-time traffic state estimation in urban corridors from heterogeneous data

In recent years, rapid advances in information technology have led to various data collection systems which are enriching the sources of empirical data for use in transport systems. Currently, traffic data are collected through various sensors including loop detectors, probe vehicles, cell-phones, Bluetooth, video cameras, remote sensing and public transport smart cards. It has been argued that combining the complementary information from multiple sources will generally result in better accuracy, increased robustness and reduced ambiguity. Despite the fact that there have been substantial advances in data assimilation techniques to reconstruct and predict the traffic state from multiple data sources, such methods are generally data-driven and do not fully utilize the power of traffic models. Furthermore, the existing methods are still limited to freeway networks and are not yet applicable in the urban context due to the enhanced complexity of the flow behavior. The main traffic phenomena on urban links are generally caused by the boundary conditions at intersections, un-signalized or signalized, at which the switching of the traffic lights and the turning maneuvers of the road users lead to shock-wave phenomena that propagate upstream of the intersections. This paper develops a new model-based methodology to build up a real-time traffic prediction model for arterial corridors using data from multiple sources, particularly from loop detectors and partial observations from Bluetooth and GPS devices.     

城市轨道交通客流密集度指数研究

基于轨道交通物联网监测数据，从点、线、面三个层级，构建不同时间粒度车站、线路、网络的客流密集度指数计算模型和算法。车站客流密集度指数模型综合考虑影响车站密集度指数的关键区域（出入口、站台、楼扶梯、换乘通道）的拥挤程度和拥挤范围因素；线路的客流密集度指数模型综合考虑车站和区间的影响；网络的客流密集度指数模型由各线路的客流密集度指数加权得到。测试结果表明，提出的模型计算结果与实际地铁客流出行规律一致，可较好地反映地铁拥挤程度，为地铁客流运营拥挤状态评价和辅助决策提供技术支持。     

基于熵权-物元模型的轨道交通建设时序研究

结合轨道交通建设特点,基于物元可拓数学方法、熵权理论和关联度函数,建立轨道交通建设时序决策的熵权物元可拓模型。该方法首先结合熵权理论,根据指标差异度对评价指标进行客观赋权;其次通过客观标准对评价指标的经典域进行区间界定,利用综合关联度将多指标的评价模型转化为单目标决策;然后依据定量测算的加权综合关联度值综合判定建设时序,最后以成都市轨道交通线网进行实例分析。结果表明:该决策算法所确定的结果与实际建设时序一致,且该算法可以极大拓展研究范围,表征更多分异信息,有效支撑城市轨道交通线网建设时序的综合决策。     

Prediction of wheel wear in urban railway transport: comparison of existing models

One of the most important maintenance costs in tramway transport comes from wear of wheel profiles. In the highly competitive railway market, the prediction of wear is then a major concern of the constructors. In this article, we present and compare four models well adapted to tramway conditions, involving contacts on the rolling tread and on the flange with very different sliding and pressure conditions. Moreover, all models can be implemented from the natural outputs of the railway simulation packages classically used in industry for the dynamics design of the vehicles. The first one, proposed by Jendel, is based on the well-known Archard's wear model. Enblom continues Jendel's approach by taking into account the contribution of wheel deformation on the sliding velocity. The last two models, developed by Zobory, and Pearce and Sherratt, determine the wear from the energy dissipation in the contact area. The models are first compared on a theoretical basis and, for that purpose, are rewritten in a common form. Two cases are distinguished: mild wear as arising on the rolling tread and severe wear as arising on the flange. The models are also compared in the practical case of an urban transport vehicle running on circular tracks with different curve radii. Although the models show equivalent trends according to the theoretical study, important discrepancies appear between estimated wear depths. All models are actually dependent on experimental coefficients and it is likely that they were estimated in different conditions. On the other hand, a reasonable agreement can be found in some particular conditions. As an example, Zobory's, Enblom's and Jendel's models are very close to each other in severe wear conditions. This work shows that a general and reliable model could probably be developed from all positive aspects of the existing ones.     

六潜高速公路水损害分析

从六潜高速公路所处独特地理位置和水文条件出发,分析了水损害的成因,提出了减少水损害的预防措施,从而将水损害初期危害降到最低,使其更好地发挥在大别山区的交通枢纽作用。     

21世纪世界新秩序——几种基本理论模式述评

在人类进入21世纪之后，世界需要建立什么样的新秩序才能更好地服务于人类社会?这个问题激发了政治家和思想家们的极大兴趣，他们提出了各种各样的“理论”和“模式”。其中，较具代表性的有：“地球村”模式，世界政府模式，“和平区”与“动乱区”模式，“三大经济区”模式，“明冲突”模式，“单极霸权”或“单极主导下的多极合作”模式，两极或多极均势模式，等等。这些模式各以其独特的视角，试图勾勒出后冷战时代世界新秩序的“地图”。     

我国城市现阶段经济、社会功能定位新探

在我国当前的经济建设中，城市面临着模式转型的过程，同时也面对着不断产生的一系列新矛盾和新要求。文章着重对此加以探讨，并就我国新时期城市功能的新定位提出了建设性意见。     

新能源汽车电池管理方法综述

电池管理系统作为电动汽车的重要组成部分,其中准确估测荷电状态(SOC)和电池均衡管理是电池管理系统的核心功能,也是优化系统能量管理,提高动力电池的使用效率,延长电池使用寿命的关键,对电池的储能至关重要。详细介绍主要SOC的估测方法和电池均衡管理方法,并对其优劣性进行分析与阐述,通过文献综述与对比分析为电池组在使用时提出理论依据与维护措施,为未来的研究提供便捷研究方法。     

工程造价人员做好工程经济工作的新思路

工程造价控制是一项涉及立项、设计、施工、结算等内容的系统工程，采取的预防措施和控制手段应贯穿于工程项目建设的全过程。此文针对工程建设领域多年来存在的工程技术与经济分离的现象，从工程造价人员整体素质不高，在项目建设过程中参与的深度和广度不够，创新服务能力弱，急需改进和提高等方面进行分析与探讨，并提出工程造价人员要不断学习和掌握一定的工程技术，与设计人员密切配合，在提高编制概预算水平的基础上，向工程经济与技术相结合的模式发展，开创新理念的工作思路，这一思路可促使工程投资效益最大化。