基于SAPSO-BP网络模型的港口潮汐实时预报

为了提高港口码头潮汐预报的精度,提出一种自适应变异的粒子群优化算法SAPSO,将SAPSO优化算法与BP神经网络结合,用以潮汐水位的实时预报。SAPSO-BP网络模型运用自适应变异的PSO算法优化BP神经网络的网络参数,克服了传统BP神经网络所具有的对初始权值阈值敏感、容易陷入局部极小值的缺点,最后选用Isabel港口的实测潮汐值数据进行潮汐水位的实时预报仿真试验,用以验证SAPSO-BP预测模型的实用性和可靠性。     

生态型港口规划理念研究

基于国内外生态港口发展历史和实践,提出生态型港口规划的愿景、原则,结合传统港口规划理念,分析生态型港口规划技术路线,丰富了港口规划体系。并以大连港太平湾港区规划为例,提出生态型港口规划概念性方案,明确了港口开发建设与生态要素协同发展的规划理念,为我国探索生态型港口规划提供了新思路。     

长江口12.5 m深水航道运行5年沪苏两地的效益响应

选择上海市及江苏省2个地区作为长江口深水航道受益对象,从宏观经济效益和社会效益2个层面分析评价长江口12.5 m深水航道运行5年沪苏两地的效益响应。结果表明,沪苏两地沿江港口的疏浚吞吐比整体有所下降,近5年降幅分别近15%和25%,2015年已分别减小至949 m~3/万t和327 m~3/万t。2011—2015年,沪苏两地因12.5 m航道产生的疏浚单方GDP增长量分别为目前国内疏浚成本单价的15~20倍和40~60倍,疏浚净效益相当可观。随着12.5 m深水航道江苏段的投入运行和沿江港口码头的改造升级,长江口深水航道的疏浚效益还将进一步增加。     

Assessment of port economic impacts on regional economy with a case study on the Port of Lisbon

This article presents a method of assessing the economic impacts of ports at both regional level and national level, through application of input–output analysis. To this end, a methodology for data collection is proposed, which combines a top-down with a bottom-up approach which should help in surpassing some of the difficulties commonly faced in port economic impact studies. The presented methodology allows port planners and policymakers to assess the economic significance and geographic reach of port investments. This study considers the economic impacts of the port cluster and the socio-economic significance of port user industries. The several layers of the analysis are kept separate to allow a better grasp of direct and indirect impacts. The proposed methodology is demonstrated in a study of the Port of Lisbon, which confirms the significance of this port to the Portuguese economy, and also demonstrates that the influence of the Port of Lisbon is mostly limited to an area in close proximity to the port. Therefore, results suggest that investments for the development of logistic infrastructures associated with the port should concentrate in the immediate hinterland of the port.     

Research trends and agenda on the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative with a focus on maritime transport

The ‘Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road’ (collectively known as Belt and Road, B&R) has been initiated by the Chinese government in 2013. The B&R is increasingly becoming a focal point for socio-economic–political interests because of its likely impact on land and sea transport and maritime logistics. The aims of this study were threefold: first, to provide an overview on the B&R, focusing on its key structural elements, such as transport corridors, city clusters, dry ports, infrastructure, zoning, and area development; second, to identify the expected impacts of the B&R on trade and implications on structural changes in transportation systems, port networks, and international logistics. Finally, to discuss major research trends and setting up of research agenda which will contribute to enriching the existing literature and shaping the global trade operations and drive economic growth in the context of the B&R.     

Locating dry ports on a network: a case study on Tianjin Port

A mathematical model for optimizing the location of dry ports is developed. The objective is to minimize the sum of the transportation costs and the fixed facility opening/closing costs. Unlike previous research on this subject, the possibility of closing existing dry ports is investigated. The dry port location problem is formulated as an integer programming and it is shown that the CFLP is a special case of our problem. The proposed model is then applied to the port of Tianjin in China and the sensitivity analysis is performed to demonstrate the robustness of the model. Our model suggests that while Tianjin Port should open some new dry ports, it might be better off closing those existing dry ports without enough throughputs. Although all parameters estimated should be uncertain in reality, sensitivity analysis shows that the results returned by the model are quite stable.     

武汉新港花山作业区规划重点问题分析

基于武汉新港花山作业区的功能定位和发展要求,结合港口开发现状、区位和地形条件,针对港区平面布置、高程设计和交通组织等问题进行重点分析。充分利用陆域资源特点和条件,考虑不同港口功能区对陆域的要求,提出合理的平面布置方案;综合分析防洪、港区排水、交通及土石方平衡等要求,对港口高程系统、重要节点高程控制和港内交通组织进行设计,为复杂地形条件下的内河集装箱港区规划设计提供参考。     

考虑相邻工程的某港区总体建设方案

以某港区实际工程为例,在对建设条件梳理分析的基础上进行方案研究。针对复杂的掩护条件,根据周边工程实施进度分阶段确定掩护标准,选择合理的设计波要素。总体建设方案选择投资稍高但建设工期较短的离岸式高桩结构,先施工码头结构后再进行港池疏浚,有效缩短了建设工期。采用Plaxis岩土有限元软件分析港池疏浚对桩基的作用,结果表明考虑港池疏浚产生的土体变形后,桩基弯矩显著增大。本工程提出的分阶段确定掩护标准、码头离岸式布置、吹填形成陆域、先施工码头结构后疏浚港池的总体建设方案,取得了良好的效益。     

北亚得里亚海集装箱港口群市场前景分析

欧洲发达市场是全球集装箱海运重要板块,对其市场发展潜力分析是中资企业参与欧洲集装箱港口投资的必要前提。集装箱港口市场发展潜力受多种因素影响,以腹地生产法进行市场预测是当前的主流方法,但该方法主要以外贸需求作为变量,存在片面性。针对当前海外港口集装箱市场分析中存在的问题,提出最优路径模型下港口集装箱市场规模预测,并以亚得里亚海北部港口群作为典型案例予以说明。分析表明,最优路径模型在大范围集装箱港口市场规模分析中具有较好的适应性,能够为投资决策提供参考。     

Port choice in container market: a literature review

As a result of the intense changes occurring in port environment over the last decades, new models of competitiveness have been developed, where port authorities try to increase their attractiveness. In this context, one of the most debated issues in this area of research is still the role played by port authorities in defining port competitiveness. The aim of this paper is to provide a review of port choice literature enabling to identify the main port choice’s criteria in order to define the role played by Port Authorities and to point out future lines of research that should be undertaken to fully incorporate current ports’ environment and performance. The results show that although some studies point out the importance of geographical factors in port choice, a larger number of studies defend the increasing role played by port authorities in determining the competitiveness through investing in port infrastructure, improving port efficiency or hinterland accessibility. Despite the existing models contributing on this topic, there are still some gaps in terms of measuring the port performance, including port strategies and studying the port choice for specific industries.