我国煤炭“铁海联运”现状分析

我国煤炭资源丰富,但分布极不平衡,主要集中在北方地区。华东、华南地区是我国经济活跃和发达地区,工业发展快,电力需求量大,而煤炭资源缺乏,对煤炭需求量大且稳定。介绍区域性的严重不平衡所形成的我国“北煤南运”、“西煤东运”、“铁海联运”的基本格局,分析“铁海联运”的发展趋势,可为我国煤炭运输通道建设提供参考。     

Optimal interpolation of sea surface temperature for the North Sea and Baltic Sea

Sea surface temperature fields of the North Sea and Baltic Sea have been constructed for the year 2001 using a multiplatform Optimal Interpolation scheme. The analyzed fields are constructed every 12 h on a 10 km spatial grid. The product is based upon observations from the three NOAA satellites 12, 14 and 16 together with a large amount of in situ observations. Space dependent covariance functions are estimated from the satellite observations and account for spatial and temporal lags. Several independent methods have been used to assess the error on the sea surface temperature product. Compared against independent in situ observations, the mean RMS difference for the year 2001 is 0.78 °C. The spatial distribution of the errors reveals that the Baltic Sea in general show higher errors than the North Sea. The error statistics throughout the year show a temporal variation of the errors with maximum during summer and winter. Tests with a varying number of satellite observations show that the accuracy of the satellite observations is the most important parameter in terms of reducing the errors on the interpolated sea surface temperature product.     

西北太平洋温带气旋中波浪的分布特征

利用日本发布的2006—2009年的亚洲地面分析图和西北太平洋波浪分析图,对冬春季发生在西北太平洋上的156个温带气旋的波浪分布特征进行了统计分析,得到了温带气旋中最大波高和4 m以上大浪的一般分布特征:最大波高中心主要分布在气旋中心S-SW方向上100~600 n mile范围内,其中200~300 n mile范围内出现率最高;4 m以上大浪范围不以气旋中心呈对称分布,气旋南侧大于北侧,其中西南侧最大;最大波高和4 m以上大浪范围与气旋强度有关,一般强度越强,最大波高和4 m以上大浪范围越大,反之,则越小。对于中心气压在980 hPa以下的强温带气旋,最大波高均在6 m以上,平均最大波高在8 m以上,4 m以上大浪的平均最大范围可达1 000 n mile以上,平均最小范围在300 n mile以上。     

Coastal Hazards and the Built Environment on Barrier Islands: A Retrospective View of Nags Head n the Late 1990s

This article provides a summary of past disasters, and hazard mitigation initiatives in the state of North Carolina, with a focus on the barrier island of Nags Head. The article also highlights the application of GIS technology to assess (i) the built environment and the extent of development and tax base in the "danger" zones (floods, oceanfront hazard zone, incipient inlets); (ii) the status of pre-Flood Insurance Rate Mapping (FlRM) structures on developed parcels; and (iii) vacant land in relation to current zoning. Findings show that 72% of Nags Head was developed, with close to one-third of the developed parcels within the oceanfront hazard zone. A relatively high percentage of structures built prior to Nags Head's regular participation in the Flood Insurance Rate Mapping (FIRM) program also lie within incipient inlets and VE flood zones. These findings were used as part of Nags Head's ongoing hazard mitigation initiatives.     

Campus parking supply impacts on transportation mode choice

Parking demand is a significant land-use problem in campus planning. The parking policies of universities and large corporations with facilities located in small urban areas shape the character of their campuses. These facilities will benefit from a simplified methodology to study the effects of parking availability on transportation mode mix and impacts on recruitment and staffing policies. This paper, based on a case study of North Dakota State University in the United States, introduces an analytical framework to provide planners with insights about how parking supply and demand affects campus transportation mode choice. The methodology relies only on aggregate mode choice data for the special generator zone and the average aggregate volume/capacity ratio projections for all external routes that access the zone. This reduced data requirement significantly lowers analysis cost and obviates the need for specialized modelling software and spatial network analysis tools. Results illustrate that the framework is effective for analysing mode choice changes under different scenarios of parking supply and population growth.     

Convection and the seeding of the North Atlantic bloom

Observations of vertical velocities in deep wintertime mixed layers using neutrally buoyant floats show that the convectively driven vertical velocities, roughly 1000 m per day, greatly exceed the sinking velocities of phytoplankton, 10 m or less per day. These velocities mix plankton effectively and uniformly across the convective layer and are therefore capable of returning those that have sunk to depth back into the euphotic zone. This mechanism cycles cells through the surface layer during the winter and provides a seed population for the spring bloom. A simple model of this mechanism applied to immortal phytoplankton in the subpolar Labrador Sea predicts that the seed population in early spring will be a few percent of the fall concentration if the plankton sink more slowly than the mean rate at which the surface well-mixed layer grows over the winter. Plankton that sink faster than this will mostly sink into the abyss with only a minute fraction remaining by spring. The shallower mixed layers of mid-latitudes are predicted to be much less effective at maintaining a seed population over the winter, limiting the ability of rapidly sinking cells to survive the winter.     

Validation of a hybrid optimal interpolation and Kalman filter scheme for sea surface temperature assimilation

A hybrid data assimilation scheme designed for operational assimilation of satellite sea surface temperatures (SST) into an ocean model has been developed and validated against in-situ observations. The scheme consists of an optimal interpolation (OI) part and a greatly simplified Kalman filter (KF) part.The OI is performed only in the longitudinal and latitudinal directions. A climatological field is used as a background field for the interpolation. It is constructed by fitting daily averages of satellite SST to the annual mean, annual, and semiannual harmonics in a 20 km by 20 km grid. The background error covariance is approximated by a spatially varying two-dimensional exponential covariance model. The parameters of the covariance model are fitted to the deviations of the satellite data from the background field using data from a full year.The simplified KF uses ocean model forecasts as a background field. It is based on the assumption that it is possible to neglect horizontal SST covariances in the filter and that the typical time scale for vertical mixing in the mixed layer is much shorter than the average time between observations. We therefore assume that the error variance in a column of water is evenly spread out throughout the mixed layer. The result of these simplifications is a computationally very efficient KF.A one year validation of the scheme is performed for year 2001 using an operational eddy resolving ocean model covering the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. It is found that assimilation of sea surface temperature data reduces the model root mean square error from 1.13 °C to 0.70 °C. The hybrid scheme is found to reduce the root mean square error slightly more than the simplified KF without OI to 0.66 °C. The inclusion of spatially varying satellite error variances does not improve the performance of the scheme significantly.     

论上海北外滩航运服务功能的拓展

上海国际航运中心的发展和黄浦江的开发为北外滩航运服务功能的拓展提供了契机。本文分析了北外滩航运服务功能历史发展概况和现状 ,阐述了北外滩航运服务功能开发的机遇和挑战、优势和劣势 ,最后提出了北外滩航运服务功能发展的要求和建议。     

河口整治工程中施工程序的重要性

以长江口南北港分汊口护滩限流工程为例,分析了在河口整治工程中科学安排施工程序的必要性;介绍了该工程施工程序的研究成果、具体做法和初步效果,表明科学、合理的施工程序对贯彻整治意图、确保河势稳定、实现整治效果和控制工程投资具有重要作用。     

Formation of Denmark Strait overflow water and its hydro-chemical composition

The dense overflow across the Denmark Strait is investigated with hydrographic and hydro-chemical data and the water mass composition of the Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW) is determined by multivariate analysis. Hydrographical properties, the transient tracers CFC-11 and CFC-12, oxygen and nutrients are utilized for the water mass definitions. Distribution and characteristics of water masses north of Denmark Strait are described, the important water masses at the sill and the variability on weekly time-scales are discussed, and the entrainment and mixing of water into the overflow plume in the northern Irminger Basin is calculated. The analysis indicates that water masses both from the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean are important for the formation of DSOW. It is found that water masses transported with the East Greenland Current make up about 75% of the overflow at the sill. The overflow at, and shortly south of, the sill is inhomogeneous with a low-salinity component dominated by Polar Intermediate Water. The high-salinity component of the overflow is mainly of Arctic origin. The water mass composition, and the short-term variability for 7 repeats of sections close to the sill are described, and these illustrate that the overflow is in fact a composite of a number of water masses with different formation and transport histories. This indicate that the overflow is a robust feature, but that it responds to variations in the circulation or atmospheric forcing that influences the formation of intermediate and deep water masses within the Arctic Mediterranean and the North Atlantic. At a section about 400 km south of the sill the overflow is well mixed and modified by entrainment of, mainly, Iceland–Scotland Overflow Water and Labrador Sea Water, together constituting 30% of the overflow plume. The entrainment of Middle Irminger Water dominates shortly downstream of the sill, before the overflow plume reaches too deep but the entrainment seems to be intermittent in time.