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31.
城市道路建设过程中,存在各种不确定因素。当道路沿线构筑物较多、周边环境较为复杂时,需进行多方案的比选,在兼顾经济指标与技术指标的前提下确定切实可行的路线方案。结合兰州市南环路(西客站段)联通工程方案,总结了城市建设中路线方案比选的几点思考,供道路专业人员参考。 相似文献
32.
定义路径行程时间可靠性为在交通事故期间内平均路径行驶时间小于事故前路径出行时间乘以可接受拥堵水平的概率,由此导出路网行程时间可靠性.假定事故持续时间服从正态分布并将研究时域划分成相同的时段,在先进出行信息下,利用元胞传输模型进行路段流量加载,给出了每一个时段内路径行程时间的递推式,并在每一个时段内更新1次路径出行时间,出行者根据更新的出行时间运用Logit模型进行路径决策,最后基于Monte-Carlo法模拟求解路网行程时间可靠性.算例结果表明,行程时间可靠性随事故持续时间和方差及需求的增加而减小;可靠性随可接受拥堵水平的增加而增加;在拥堵网络中,包含事故路段的OD间需求越高,可靠性越低. 相似文献
33.
随着城市轨道交通网络的不断完善,可供乘客选择的轨道交通出行路径日益 增加,乘客出行路径决策愈加复杂.本文在分析轨道交通服务水平变量对不同属性乘客出 行路径选择行为影响的基础上,提出轨道交通乘客个性化出行路径规划算法.首先,基于 非集计理论构建针对不同类别乘客的路径选择模型,该模型综合考虑乘车时间、换乘时 间、换乘次数、车内拥挤度及个人属性等因素对乘客路径选择行为的影响.其次,基于不同 类别乘客的路径选择行为差异,构建考虑车内拥挤度变化的乘客个性化出行路径动态规 划算法,为不同属性乘客规划广义出行时间最小的路径.最后,基于广州地铁数据对算法 进行验证.结果表明,该算法针对乘客个人属性规划的最优出行路径,更加贴合乘客的出 行心理. 相似文献
34.
Concerned by the nuisances of motorized travel on urban life, policy makers are faced with the challenge of making cycling a more attractive alternative for everyday transportation. Route choice models can help achieve this objective by gaining insights into the trade-offs cyclists make when choosing their routes and by allowing the effect of infrastructure improvements to be analyzed. We estimate a link-based bike route choice model from a sample of GPS observations in the city of Eugene on a network comprising over 40,000 links. The so-called recursive logit (RL) model (Fosgerau et al., 2013) does not require to sample any choice set of paths. We show the advantages of this approach in the context of prediction by focusing on two applications of the model: link flows and accessibility measures. Compared to the path-based approach which requires to generate choice sets, the RL model proves to make significant gains in computational time and to avoid paradoxical accessibility measure results discussed in previous works, e.g. Nassir et al. (2014). 相似文献
35.
武汉市过长江交通是武汉市最主要的交通流向之一。根据流量观测数据分析长江交通流量特征,表明武汉市区过长江交通饱和,交通需求总量大,出行目的种类多。过长江交通没有明显、固定的高峰日和高峰小时,除通勤交通外。还有公务等大量非通勤交通。其中武昌与汉口之间交通是主流向,需要适当新增通道缓解过江难问题。 相似文献
36.
Po-Hsing Tseng 《Maritime Policy and Management》2018,45(4):422-438
As Arctic sea ice shrinks due to global warming, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP) offer a substantial reduction in shipping distance between Asia and the European and North American continents, respectively, when compared to conventional routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. However, Arctic shipping routes have many problems associated with their use. The main objective of this paper is to identify the key criteria that influence the decisions of shipping operators with respect to using Arctic shipping routes. A multi-criteria decision-making methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank four potential categories of criteria (‘economic’, ‘technical’, ‘political’ and ‘safety’ factors) and their sub-criteria.
The results of the analysis suggest that, on aggregate, ‘economic’ is the most important category of influential factors, followed by ‘safety’, ‘technical’ and ‘political’ factors. The paper concludes, however, that the most influential specific sub-criteria relate to risks that lie mainly within the ‘safety’ and ‘political’ domains and that, especially in combination, these overwhelm the importance which is attached to ‘economic’ factors such as reduced fuel use. Finally, the implications of these findings for the future development of Arctic shipping are addressed at a strategic level. 相似文献
37.
Helene Bareksten Solvang Nikolaos Valantasis-Kanellos Dong-Wook Song 《Maritime Policy and Management》2018,45(4):495-513
This qualitative inductive research explores the potential benefits for the Scandinavian economy and ports through the implementation of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative for container shipping to the established Southern route through the Suez Canal. To extract expert’s opinions and address these objectives, we utilised in-depth face-to-face semi-structured interviews through purposive sampling in a single case study setting. The analysis of the data demonstrates that the commercialisation of NSR can yield benefits for the Scandinavian economy (e.g. GDP increase, jobs creation) and reveals the benefits of Scandinavian ports (e.g. ECA’s, flexibility, hinterland, etc.) compared to other ports in North West Europe, which potentially grasp the NSR as an opportunity. However, it is highlighted that this can only be achieved if Scandinavian countries are proactive and secure their involvement. 相似文献
38.
39.
This paper looks at the first and second best jointly optimal toll and road capacity investment problems from both policy
and technical oriented perspectives. On the technical side, the paper investigates the applicability of the constraint cutting
algorithm for solving the second best problem under elastic demand which is formulated as a bilevel programming problem. The
approach is shown to perform well despite several problems encountered by our previous work in Shepherd and Sumalee (Netw.
Spat. Econ., 4(2): 161–179, 2004). The paper then applies the algorithm to a small sized network to investigate the policy implications of the first and second
best cases. This policy analysis demonstrates that the joint first best structure is to invest in the most direct routes while
reducing capacities elsewhere. Whilst unrealistic this acts as a useful benchmark. The results also show that certain second
best policies can achieve a high proportion of the first best benefits while in general generating a revenue surplus. We also
show that unless costs of capacity are known to be low then second best tolls will be affected and so should be analysed in
conjunction with investments in the network.
Andrew Koh Prior to joining the Institute for Transport Studies in December 2005, Andrew was employed for number of years as a consultant in highway assignment modelling. He is an economist with wide ranging research interests in transport economics as well as evolutionary computation heuristics such as genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimisation and differential evolution. Simon Shepherd At the Institute for Transport Studies since 1989, he gained his doctorate in 1994 applying state-space methods to the problem of traffic responsive signal control in over-saturated conditions. His expertise lies in modelling and policy optimisation ranging from detailed simulation models through assignment to strategic land use transport models. Recently he has focussed on optimisation of road user charging schemes and is currently working on optimal cordon design and system dynamics approaches to strategic modelling. Agachai Sumalee Agachai is currently an Assistant Professor at Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University (). He obtained a Ph.D degree with the thesis entitled “Optimal Road Pricing Scheme Design” at Leeds University in 2004. His research areas cover transport network modeling and optimization, stochastic network modeling, network reliability analysis, and road pricing. Agachai is currently an associate editor of Networks and Spatial Economics. 相似文献
Agachai SumaleeEmail: |
Andrew Koh Prior to joining the Institute for Transport Studies in December 2005, Andrew was employed for number of years as a consultant in highway assignment modelling. He is an economist with wide ranging research interests in transport economics as well as evolutionary computation heuristics such as genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimisation and differential evolution. Simon Shepherd At the Institute for Transport Studies since 1989, he gained his doctorate in 1994 applying state-space methods to the problem of traffic responsive signal control in over-saturated conditions. His expertise lies in modelling and policy optimisation ranging from detailed simulation models through assignment to strategic land use transport models. Recently he has focussed on optimisation of road user charging schemes and is currently working on optimal cordon design and system dynamics approaches to strategic modelling. Agachai Sumalee Agachai is currently an Assistant Professor at Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University (). He obtained a Ph.D degree with the thesis entitled “Optimal Road Pricing Scheme Design” at Leeds University in 2004. His research areas cover transport network modeling and optimization, stochastic network modeling, network reliability analysis, and road pricing. Agachai is currently an associate editor of Networks and Spatial Economics. 相似文献
40.