Simulating pedestrian movements at signalized crosswalks in Hong Kong

This paper presents a new pedestrian simulation (PS) model for signalized crosswalks in Hong Kong. This PS model is capable of estimating the variations of walking speed particularly on the effects of bi-directional pedestrian flows so as to determine the minimum required duration of pedestrian crossing time. Video records taken from the observational surveys at the selected crosswalk in urban area were used to extract the required data for model calibration. It was found that the design walking speed for signalized crosswalks should be varied by the effects of the bi-directional pedestrian flows. It was also interesting to note that the negative impact of the bi-directional flow effects (ranging from uni-directional to bi-directional pedestrian flows) on the chance of pedestrian crossing the crosswalk is increasing from free-flow to at-capacity flow conditions. The new PS model is also validated using an independent data set so as to examine the reliability of the simulation results. The validation results show that the new PS model can provide an accurate evaluation on the changes of walking speed and its standard deviation under different scenarios with particular emphasis on the effects of the bi-directional pedestrian flows. The advancement of this PS model can be applied to assess the effects of each improvement measure and to evaluate the benefits of each scenario in practice.     

拖网渔船避碰行为的不确定性分析

通过对交叉相遇局面中单拖网渔船避碰行为的实际调查，应用信息熵理论，建立了避碰行为的不确定性模型。借助对交叉相遇局面中的让路船在不同距离、不同DCPA时采取避碰行动的不确定性分析，为相应局面中的船舶避碰决策提供参考。     

Amtrak,the attempt to renew U.S. rail service

The decline of railway passenger train patronage and the deterioration of service in the United States have led the U.S. Government to assume control over the operation of trains via a quasi‐federal corporation called “Amtrak,” but some basic causes of the decline remain and new problems will arise as a result of this action.

Two results of the neglect to assess external costs against the various transport modes is an unbalance in favor of those with the higher external costs and the continued, seemingly fundamental, unprofitability of railway passenger service, which exists even for equipment that operates at capacity!

Some way of collecting external costs will have to be found, and the problems created by the new intrusion of the U.S. Government into transport will have to be faced.     

车辆-行人法规实施的重要性研究

行人安全技术应用在汽车上可以降低汽车一行人碰撞中行人的伤害，因此，我国应该实施行人保护法规，促使汽车生产企业加速行人保护方面的研究。文章通过对道路交通事故中行人伤害所占的比例分析，说明了在我国开展行人保护研究的重要意义。阐述了在汽车与行人的碰撞过程中，汽车可能对行人造成伤害的主要部分，从而对改进汽车相关结构提出重要依据。力图从根本上提高汽车的被动安全性能，使我国的汽车工业向更加完善的方向发展，从而使我国的汽车技术和世界汽车技术接轨。     

基于行人腿部伤害指标的保险杠参数分析

分别建立了行人腿部和用于计算行人碰撞的车辆有限元模型。采用正交设计方法,研究了吸能泡沫Z向偏置、副保险杠X向位置、副保险杠厚度和副保险杠强度等参数对行人腿部伤害的影响。结果表明,4个参数对胫骨最大加速度与膝盖最大弯曲角影响的重要程度一致,但影响趋势相反。     

行人保护计算机模拟分析

汽车被动安全性分为对车内乘员的保护和对车外行人的保护两个方面。对车内乘员保护是汽车被动安全的最基础部分,但随着车外行人伤害的增加,行人保护日益受到各国政府的关注。行人保护计划在欧洲开始执行后,其影响力迅速向世界各地展开,并逐渐被所有汽车制造商重视,进而促使汽车制造商在车辆被动安全性、车辆总布置和造型上进行新的设计。本文着重阐述了奇瑞公司某车型在车辆开发初期利用计算机进行EuroNCAP行人保护模拟分析的运用,通过计算机模拟结果来指导设计,在大大降低了开发费用的同时增强了奇瑞公司的自主研发能力和科技创新实力。     

The effectiveness of differential pricing on route choice

The use of differential pricing as a means of traffic management has been advocated by specialists in the field of transport for quite some time. Because of technical and political reasons, a full-scale pricing scheme for the use of road space has yet to be introduced. Applying the principle to a highly automatic rail system, however, is technologically much more feasible. The Mass Transit Railway Corporation of Hong Kong has implemented a so-called revenue neutral peal pricing policy after the completion of a second cross-harbour route- the East Harbour Crossing — in May, 1990. Passengers travelling from Kowloon to the central business district (including Jordon and Tsim Sha Tsui on the Kowloon side and stations from Sheung Wan to Causeway Bay on the Island side) during the morning peak hour are confronted with the following choice: either (i) make use of the Nathan Road Corridor and pay 80 cents on top of normal face; or (ii) take the less congested but in general longer route via the East Harbour Crossing and get a 80 cents discount. The present paper attempts to analyse the effectiveness of this differential pricing policy in diverting passengers from the overcrowded section to the less heavily utilized route. A personal interview survey comprising a total of 1094 successful cases was conducted for this purpose. The logit regression model was employed to analyse the route choice. It is found that income, habit and journey time are the most important variables determining the route choice. The effect of cost or fare difference, although large in terms of magnitude, is only marginally significant in the statistical sense. It is suggested that efforts to change the passengers' habit and measures to shorten the train transfer time at the Quarry Bay Station for the East harbour Crossing users would be more effective in achieving this end. This is especially the case given the current political development in Hong King which renders further enlargement of the price difference a highly difficult proposition.     

铁道车辆通过水平曲线时车钩最大偏移角的分析

针对TB/T 1335—1996《铁道车辆强度设计及试验鉴定规范》中铁道车辆通过水平曲线的校核问题,推导出车辆由定圆曲线向与之相切的直线运行时车钩最大偏移角计算方法。分析出当校核车辆车钩偏移角最大时计算车辆在S形曲线上的确切位置。     

大型综合交通枢纽流线组织设计

大型综合交通枢纽在实现各种功能的同时,如何打造便捷舒适的交通流线组织,实现车流、人流的快捷疏散,是规划设计中需要高度重视的问题。结合深圳北站综合交通枢纽工程的总体规划设计,对人流和车流组织进行优化设计,提出人流组织的基本要点和措施,阐述“人车分流”、“无缝接驳”的设计理念,突显流线组织在综合枢纽设计中的核心地位,并最终实现乘客在5 min内无缝换乘各种交通工具的设计目标。     

Development of probabilistic pedestrian fatality model for characterizing pedestrian-vehicle collisions

Pedestrian-related accidents are considered to be the most serious of traffic accidents due to the associated high fatality rates. In Korea, pedestrian fatalities accounted for approximately 40% of all traffic-related fatalities in 2004. Significant efforts have been made to develop effective countermeasures for pedestrian-vehicle collisions. A basis for devising such countermeasures is to understand the characteristics of pedestrian-vehicle collisions. This study develops a pedestrian fatality model capable of predicting the probability of fatality in pedestrian-vehicle collisions. Binary logistic regression and a probabilistic neural network (PNN) are employed to estimate the probability of pedestrian fatality. Pedestrian age, vehicle type and collision speed are used as independent variables of the fatality model. The models developed herein are valuable tools that can be used to direct safety policies and technologies associated with pedestrian safety.