Evaluating the effects of bus design on passenger flow: Is agent-based simulation a feasible approach?

In this paper, we propose an agent-based simulation approach that is capable of simulating the flow of passengers on board buses and at bus stops. The intention is that it will be applied during vehicle development to analyze how vehicle design affects passenger flow, and thus also how it affects system performance such as dwell time. In turn, this could aid the developers in making design decisions early in the development process. Besides introducing the simulation tool itself, the paper explores the realism of the data generated by the tool. A number of passenger flow experiments featuring a full-scale bus mockup and 50 participants were carried out. The setup of these experiments mirrored a number of ‘bus journeys’ (regarding vehicle design, number of passengers boarding/alighting at each stop and so on) that had previously been simulated using the simulation tool. When the data from the simulations were compared with the data from the passenger flow experiments, it could be concluded that the tool is indeed able to generate realistic passenger flows, although with some errors when a large number of passengers board/alight. The simulated dwell times were rationally affected by the tested bus layout aspects. It was concluded that the tool makes it possible to evaluate how variations in bus layouts affect passenger flow, providing data of sufficiently high quality to be useful in early phases of vehicle design.     

Driving to save time or saving time to drive? The enduring appeal of the private car

Use of the private car is often viewed as highly problematic. It is regularly associated with global physical, social and ecological harms such as climate change and the high incidence of lifestyle diseases, including heart disease. Attempts to address these problems generally include provision for day-to-day physical mobility based on alternatives to the private car. Labelled alternative transport, these modes include public transport, walking and cycling. Yet the private car continues as the preferred way to travel in many cities. A deeper understanding of this preference can reveal under explored sites of resistance to alternative transport modes.This paper contributes to these understandings by examining the role the car as a time saving device plays in sustaining automobility. Its central proposition is that individual decisions to drive are not necessarily motivated by the desire to save time. The paper draws on empirical evidence on the journey to work in Australia’s largest city, Sydney. Using a systematic process of trip substitution analysis, a group of people were identified who could use alternative transport to get to work in the same amount of time it currently takes them to drive. These people then participated in a series of in-depth interviews where deeper attachments and motivations for private car use were explored.This approach has enabled development of the multi-layered understanding that informs the central proposition that individual decisions to drive are not necessarily motivated by the desire to save time. Instead, automobility is sustained by appeals to flexibility and autonomy, as well as the interminable pull of the sensory experience provided by the cocoon of the car. This way of thinking about resistance to alternative transport exposes a series of inconsistencies between the expectations of those planning for, and those anticipated to one day use, alternative transport.     

Resolving the property right of transportation emissions through public–private partnerships

The application of public–private partnerships (P3’s) in the transportation sector has grown in popularity worldwide. Despite this important shift in the provision of transportation service, there are clear gaps in knowledge about the impacts of P3 projects, especially on emissions from transportation systems as a whole. Not only should policy makers evaluate the emissions impacts from P3 projects, but they should also think about innovative models that address or charge for emissions into P3 contracts. This addition to P3 contracts could provide a new solution to the long-existing property right paradox: who owns (is responsible for) emissions from transportation systems? This study attempts to fill the research gap by analyzing these innovative models. Using the road network of Fresno, California, as our case study, we offer a number of interesting insights for policy makers. First, average peak emissions costs range from 1.37 cents per mile (the do-nothing case) to 1.20 cents per mile (profit-maximizing cases) per vehicle. Although emissions costs from the P3 projects are lowest for the profit-maximizing cases, the system-wide emissions costs of these cases are highest because of spillover effects. Second, charging project owners for the emissions costs of P3 projects is not an effective way to reduce emissions or the total costs of travel, especially on a VMT basis. Instead, the public sector should implement emissions-included social cost-based price ceilings. When employing these limits, project owners could still be charged for the emissions costs. Finally, using total travel time as the only objective function for evaluating P3 projects can be misleading. Several P3 projects have shown better outcomes using total travel cost with the inclusion of emissions and fuel consumption costs, instead of using total travel time as the only objective function.     

基于非参数回归的快速路行程速度短期预测算法

基于北京市快速路上的检测器所采集的历史数据，经过数据筛选，剔除判别，小波滤噪平稳处理，聚类分析等过程，建立了交通状态演变系列的历史样本数据库。基于所构建的历史数据库，通过数值试验，确定了状态向量、距离匹配原则，K近邻值等参量，构建了一种基于K近邻的非参数回归短时交通预测模型，实现了对路段行程速度的短时预测。最后，利用随机选取的历史数据系列对预测模型的精度进行了检验。结果表明，预测算法的精度可以达到90％以上，可以很好地满足ITS应用系统对于交通预测数据的精度要求。     

城乡公交统筹发展策略研究

在阐述我国城乡公交统筹发展必要性的基础上,着重分析了目前城乡客运体系发展差距的症结所在,解析城乡公交统筹发展的内涵,以管理体制、政策法规、站场设施、市场建设4个方面的统筹为切入点,探讨了我国城乡公交统筹发展的具体策略。     

交通基础设施建设投资对国民经济拉动作用的定量分析

运用投入产出模型定量分析了公路交通基础设施建设投资对国民经济的拉动作用。拉动作用主要表现为公路建设投资所产生的直接、间接和诱导经济效益,其总和为公路建设投资的乘数效应,可分别用产出乘数、GDP乘数和就业乘数来测算。分析测算了我国近年来公路建设投资对国民经济的拉动作用。估算结果表明,(1)公路建筑业对其他部门的波及影响程度大于各部门的平均影响水平;(2)拉动作用在1998年最为显著,自1999年开始,公路投资拉动经济增长的百分比呈逐年上升的趋势。     

道路运输企业质量评价体系研究

文章分析了现有道路运输企业质量评价体系的不足,提出了新的道路评价方法,为将来的道路运输管理和规划提供了一个基础。     

英国的客运交通发展及启示

作者考察了英国客运交通的发展情况,文章结合我国及广西的实际情况,就如何吸收和借鉴英国有益的经验和做法,提出了加快道路运输发展的措施和建议。     

The best of times and the worst of times: A new best–worst measure of attitudes toward public transport experiences

Attitudes play an important role in determining individual transit behaviour and the measurement of attitudes is relied on by public transit authorities’ world over. Given their role in behaviour and policy making, the accurate measurement of attitudes is of critical importance. Traditional satisfaction scales are prone to bias and on their own they are only a partial measure of attitudes. Given that satisfaction scales have been used to assist with large scale transport infrastructure investment decisions, to aid policy makers examining reactions to alternative policy changes and reform, and to measure the success of new initiatives, deriving robust satisfaction scales should be of critical importance. This paper introduces a dual version of best–worst scaling as an alternative measure of satisfaction. Best–worst scaling is free of the biases inherent in traditional response scales and is ideal for handling the comparative evaluation of large amount of attributes, particularly those which are inherently qualitative. The paper makes a further innovative contribution by proposing a model structure for the joint estimation of satisfaction and importance. Our model shows a better delineation between the attributes used to measure attitudes towards bus use and a more detailed understanding of the relationship between importance and satisfaction; enabling transport operators to better understand what counts most and assess their performance.     

Competition and public service obligations in European aviation markets

This paper analyzes the effect of universal service policies on the airline markets of five European Union countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom) in the period 2002–2010. Results show that airfare discount schemes for island residents raise demand and positively affect competition and the number of flights at the route level. These effects are evident in France and Italy, but are particularly marked in Spain. By contrast, public service obligations (PSOs) reduce competition on the protected routes, while their effect on the number of flights differs depending on national regulations. In Spain, routes protected with PSOs have greater flight frequencies than those on unprotected routes of similar characteristics, but in France, Italy and the UK the opposite result is found. The empirical model also finds that on routes with low-cost airlines market concentration is smaller and there is a larger number of flights. This result is relevant for the design of universal service policy, since in recent years low-cost airlines have entered a number of thin routes and have increased access to air transportation.