Short-term forecasting of high-speed rail demand: A hybrid approach combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition and gray support vector machine with real-world applications in China

Short-term forecasting of high-speed rail (HSR) passenger flow provides daily ridership estimates that account for day-to-day demand variations in the near future (e.g., next week, next month). It is one of the most critical tasks in high-speed passenger rail planning, operational decision-making and dynamic operation adjustment. An accurate short-term HSR demand prediction provides a basis for effective rail revenue management. In this paper, a hybrid short-term demand forecasting approach is developed by combining the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and grey support vector machine (GSVM) models. There are three steps in this hybrid forecasting approach: (i) decompose short-term passenger flow data with noises into a number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a trend term; (ii) predict each IMF using GSVM calibrated by the particle swarm optimization (PSO); (iii) reconstruct the refined IMF components to produce the final predicted daily HSR passenger flow, where the PSO is also applied to achieve the optimal refactoring combination. This innovative hybrid approach is demonstrated with three typical origin–destination pairs along the Wuhan-Guangzhou HSR in China. Mean absolute percentage errors of the EEMD-GSVM predictions using testing sets are 6.7%, 5.1% and 6.5%, respectively, which are much lower than those of two existing forecasting approaches (support vector machine and autoregressive integrated moving average). Application results indicate that the proposed hybrid forecasting approach performs well in terms of prediction accuracy and is especially suitable for short-term HSR passenger flow forecasting.     

Resolving the property right of transportation emissions through public–private partnerships

The application of public–private partnerships (P3’s) in the transportation sector has grown in popularity worldwide. Despite this important shift in the provision of transportation service, there are clear gaps in knowledge about the impacts of P3 projects, especially on emissions from transportation systems as a whole. Not only should policy makers evaluate the emissions impacts from P3 projects, but they should also think about innovative models that address or charge for emissions into P3 contracts. This addition to P3 contracts could provide a new solution to the long-existing property right paradox: who owns (is responsible for) emissions from transportation systems? This study attempts to fill the research gap by analyzing these innovative models. Using the road network of Fresno, California, as our case study, we offer a number of interesting insights for policy makers. First, average peak emissions costs range from 1.37 cents per mile (the do-nothing case) to 1.20 cents per mile (profit-maximizing cases) per vehicle. Although emissions costs from the P3 projects are lowest for the profit-maximizing cases, the system-wide emissions costs of these cases are highest because of spillover effects. Second, charging project owners for the emissions costs of P3 projects is not an effective way to reduce emissions or the total costs of travel, especially on a VMT basis. Instead, the public sector should implement emissions-included social cost-based price ceilings. When employing these limits, project owners could still be charged for the emissions costs. Finally, using total travel time as the only objective function for evaluating P3 projects can be misleading. Several P3 projects have shown better outcomes using total travel cost with the inclusion of emissions and fuel consumption costs, instead of using total travel time as the only objective function.     

稀浆封层路面成型机理与压实工艺

通过对稀浆封层施工工艺分析,简要阐述了稀浆封层路面的成型机理,提出了选用合理的压实工艺是一种提高稀浆封层施工质量与效率的重要方法。并且主要从碾压方式的选择、专用压实设备的选择与使用这2个方面,对稀浆封层路面的压实工艺进行了探讨。     

HZQ40/120型运架一体架桥机的技术使用

对运架一体架桥机的结构特点及主要作业过程的技术使用进行了阐述,提出了维护保养要点,对架桥机的合理技术使用具有参考价值。     

冷铣刨机金属探测技术研究

随着冷铣刨机在路面养护施工中的大量使用,铣刨机金属探测技术的应用显得越来越重要。介绍了金属探测技术方法的选择和金属探测器的应用情况,并通过实验确定了金属探测器安装在铣刨机上的最佳数量、位置和高度。     

模糊逻辑诊断方法在液压系统故障诊断中的应用

从模糊数学的基本理论出发,论述了铣刨机液压系统状态监测与故障诊断的原则和方法,为计算机辅助故障诊断,缩短诊断时间,提高准确性,提供了一条可行的途径。     

基于Takens理论和SVM的滑坡位移预测

针对滑坡变形时序非线性,数据量少的特点,引入Takens理论,采用支持向量机(SVM)建立其预测模型,建模过程中,比较了由不同核函数获得的SVM模型的性能,同时将SVM与RBF、El-man神经网络模型进行外推7步预测试验比较。结果表明:RBF核函数具有更好的工程实用价值;在有限样本情况下,SVM预测模型具有更好的准确性和泛化性,其7步预测平均误差率控制在5%以内,可见该方法在滑坡变形预测方面极具潜力。     

充分发挥道路运输业的比较优势努力做好"三个服务"——在全国道路运输工作会议上的讲话(节选)

文章充分肯定了近年来我国道路运输工作取得的成绩,阐述了交通运输业今后的工作重点,提出了道路运输业发展的总体目标和要求。     

水泥稳定碎石在二级公路基层施工中的质量控制

文章通过分析水泥稳定碎石的作用原理及形成过程,阐明了在二级公路建设中水泥稳定碎石的施工要点及控制方法。     

山区公路填方路基稳定性的综合处治

文章通过对广西西林-管肖公路路基沉陷病害化学灌浆加固的治理,以及加固效果的试验对比,说明化学灌浆加固技术对于公路不稳定路基处理的可行性,为类似工程提供参考。