Speed profile estimation using license plate recognition data

Vehicle speed profile is a fundamental data support for calculating vehicular emission using the micro-emission model. However, achieving accuracy and breadth for the speed profile estimation is difficult. This study proposes a new vehicle speed profile estimation model using license plate recognition (LPR) data. This model allows speed profile estimation of every individual vehicle between two consecutive intersections. A systematic LPR data-mending method is developed to infer the information of unmatched vehicles. Using the complete arrival and departure information as boundary conditions, a customized car-following model combined with dummy-overtaking hypothesis and boundary constraints is then applied to estimate the speed profile of vehicles. The proposed model is validated using ground truth speed information from a field experiment conducted in Langfang City in China. Results show that the model can fully capture the pattern of ground truth speed profile. A complementary model validation using the Next Generation Simulation dataset and a model application for calculating emissions are also conducted. The numerical results indicate the effectiveness of the proposed model in estimating vehicle speed profile and emissions.     

Optimal vehicle speed trajectory on a signalized arterial with consideration of queue

Vehicle speed trajectory significantly impacts fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, especially for trips on signalized arterials. Although a large amount of research has been conducted aiming at providing optimal speed advisory to drivers, impacts from queues at intersections are not considered. Ignoring the constraints induced by queues could result in suboptimal or infeasible solutions. In this study, a multi-stage optimal control formulation is proposed to obtain the optimal vehicle trajectory on signalized arterials, where both vehicle queue and traffic light status are considered. To facilitate the real-time update of the optimal speed trajectory, a constrained optimization model is proposed as an approximation approach, which can be solved much quicker. Numerical examples demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed optimal control model and the solution efficiency of the proposed approach.     

An online speed profile generation approach for efficient airport ground movement

The precise guidance and control of taxiing aircraft based on four-dimensional trajectories (4DTs) has been recognised as a promising means to ensure safe and efficient airport ground movement in the context of ever growing air traffic demand. In this paper, a systematic approach for online speed profile generation is proposed. The aim is to generate fuel-efficient speed profiles respecting the timing constraints imposed by routing and scheduling, which ensures conflict-free movement of aircraft in the planning stage. The problem is first formulated as a nonlinear optimisation model, which uses a more flexible edge-based speed profile definition. A decomposed solution approach (following the framework of matheuristic) is then proposed to generate feasible speed profiles in real time. The decomposed solution approach reduces the nonlinear optimisation model into three tractable constituent problems. The control point arrival time allocation problem is solved using linear programming. The control point speed allocation problem is solved using particle swarm optimisation. And the complete speed profile between control points is determined using enumeration. Finally, improved speed profiles are generated through further optimisation upon the feasible speed profiles. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed approach are validated using datasets of real-world airports.     

Three-dimensional conflict count models for unstructured and layered airspace designs

This paper presents analytical models that describe the safety of unstructured and layered en route airspace designs. Here, ‘unstructured airspace’ refers to airspace designs that offer operators complete freedom in path planning, whereas ‘layered airspace’ refers to airspace concepts that utilize heading-altitude rules to vertically separate cruising aircraft based on their travel directions. With a focus on the intrinsic safety provided by an airspace design, the models compute instantaneous conflict counts as a function of traffic demand and airspace design parameters, such as traffic separation requirements and the permitted heading range per flight level. While previous studies have focused primarily on conflicts between cruising aircraft, the models presented here also take into account conflicts involving climbing and descending traffic. Fast-time simulation experiments used to validate the modeling approach indicate that the models estimate instantaneous conflict counts with high accuracy for both airspace designs. The simulation results also show that climbing and descending traffic caused the majority of conflicts for layered airspaces with a narrow heading range per flight level, highlighting the importance of including all aircraft flight phases for a comprehensive safety analysis. Because such trends could be accurately predicted by the three-dimensional models derived here, these analytical models can be used as tools for airspace design applications as they provide a detailed understanding of the relationships between the parameters that influence the safety of unstructured and layered airspace designs.     

Modeling the cost of bird strikes to US civil aircraft

The objective of our analysis is to develop a model of damage costs that arise from collisions between aircraft and birds, based on data drawn from the Federal Aviation Administration National Wildlife Strike Database (NWSD). We develop a two-part model, composed of two separate statistical models, that accounts for the effects of aircraft mass category, engine type, component of the aircraft struck, and the size and number of birds struck. Our results indicate the size of bird, number of birds, and engine ingestions are the largest determinants of strike-related costs. More generally, our result is a model that provides a better understanding of the determinants of damage costs and that can be used to interpolate the substantial amount of missing data on damage costs that currently exists within the NWSD. A more complete accounting of damage costs will allow a better understanding of how damage costs vary geographically and temporally and, thus, enable more efficient allocation of management resources across airports and seasons.     

Maximizing airborne delay at no extra fuel cost by means of linear holding

This paper introduces a linear holding strategy based on prior works on cruise speed reduction, aimed at performing airborne delay at no extra fuel cost, as a complementary strategy to current ground and airborne holding strategies. Firstly, the equivalent speed concept is extended to climb and descent phases through an analysis of fuel consumption and speed from aircraft performance data. This gives an insight of the feasibility to implement the concept, differentiating the case where the cruise flight level initially requested is kept and the case where it can be changed before departure in order to maximize the linear holding time. Illustrative examples are given, where typical flights are simulated using an optimal trajectory generation tool where linear holding is maximized while keeping constant the initially planned fuel. Finally, the effects of linear holding are thoroughly assessed in terms of the vertical trajectory profiles, range of feasible speed intervals and trade-offs between fuel and time. Results show that the airborne delay increases significantly with nearly 3-fold time for short-haul flights and 2-fold for mid-hauls to the cases in prior works.     

Adaptive traffic parameter prediction: Effect of number of states and transferability of models

Traffic parameters can show shifts due to factors such as weather, accidents, and driving characteristics. This study develops a model for predicting traffic speeds under these abrupt changes within regime switching framework. The proposed approach utilizes Hidden Markov, Expectation Maximization, Recursive Least Squares Filtering, and ARIMA methods for an adaptive forecasting method. The method is compared with naive and mean updating linear and nonlinear time series models. The model is fitted and tested extensively using 1993 I-880 loop data from California and January 2014 INRIX data from Virginia. Analysis for number of states, impact of number of states on forecasting, prediction scope, and transferability of the model to different locations are investigated. A 5-state model is found to be providing best results. Developed model is tested for 1-step to 45-step forecasts. The accuracy of predictions are improved until 15-step over nonadaptive and mean adaptive models. Except 1-step predictions, the model is found to be transferable to different locations. Even if the developed model is not retrained on different datasets, it is able to provide better or close results with nonadaptive and adaptive models that are retrained on the corresponding dataset.     

Time to burn: Flight delay,terminal efficiency,and fuel consumption in the National Airspace System

Improved Air Traffic Management (ATM) leading to reduced en route and gate delay, greater predictability in flight planning, and reduced terminal inefficiencies has a role to play in reducing aviation fuel consumption. Air navigation service providers are working to quantify this role to help prioritize and justify ATM modernization efforts. In the following study we analyze actual flight-level fuel consumption data reported by a major U.S. based airline to study the possible fuel savings from ATM improvements that allow flights to better adhere to their planned trajectories both en route and in the terminal area. To do so we isolate the contribution of airborne delay, departure delay, excess planned flight time, and terminal area inefficiencies on fuel consumption using econometric techniques. The model results indicate that, for two commonly operated aircraft types, the system-wide averages of flight fuel consumption attributed to ATM delay and terminal inefficiencies are 1.0–1.5% and 1.5–4.5%, respectively. We quantify the fuel impact of predicted delay to be 10–20% that of unanticipated delay, reinforcing the role of flight plan predictability in reducing fuel consumption. We rank terminal areas by quantifying a Terminal Inefficiency metric based on the variation in terminal area fuel consumed across flights. Our results help prioritize ATM modernization investments by quantifying the trade-offs in planned and unplanned delays and identifying terminal areas with high potential for improvement.     

Fuel economy of hybrid-electric versus conventional gasoline vehicles in real-world conditions: A case study of cold cities in Quebec,Canada

This paper investigates the fuel efficiency of commercial hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and compares their performance with respect to standard gasoline vehicles in the context of cold Canadian urban environments. The effect of different factors on fuel efficiency is studied including road driving conditions (link type, city size), temperature, speed, cold-starts and eco-driving training. For this study, fuel consumption data at the link level in real-world conditions was used from a sample of 74 instrumented vehicles. From the study fleet, 21 vehicles were HEVs. Among other results, the beneficial fuel efficiency merits of hybrid vehicles were demonstrated with respect to gasoline cars, in particular at low speeds and in urban (city) environments. After controlling for other factors, sedan HEVs were 28% more efficient than sedan gasoline vehicles. However, the low temperatures (below 0 °C) observed regularly during winter season in the study cities were identified as a detrimental factor to fuel economy. In winter, the fuel efficiency of HEVs decrease about 20% with respect to summer. Other factors such as eco-driving training, city size, cold start and vehicle type were also found to be statistically significant.