基于关键客流密度选择支路公交运营模式的方法

公交支线采用灵活式运营模式,可以通过接驳点将所服务区与交通网连接起来,为乘客提供更有效快捷的运行方式.但在实际的设计和运营过程中,往往很难选择运用何种模式更合适.鉴于此,提出公交运营模式选择模型以协助决策者做出更合理的选择.采用连续近似方法估算关键需求密度,通过分析单车辆和双车辆情况下的运营参数,比较模拟生成的值,验证分析建模方法的有效性.     

简便实用的最小二乘预测算式

本文推导了在等间隔观测条件下的最小二乘预测的简例实用的预测算式，它可以利用前四点历史数据直接计算出下一观测点的预测值，因此能更加方便地在实时控制及其它领域中直接应用，对各种数据的动态趋势进行预测分析。     

波流作用下圆柱体入水特性的三维数值模拟研究

结构在实际海况中入水受到多种载荷的共同作用,同时还伴随波浪作用的影响,因此该过程是一个强非线性的过程。针对结构在波、流中入水过程的特点,将入射波(波、流)引入非线性双渐进法,研究三维刚体圆柱体在波、流及波流联合作用下入水过程运动响应及姿态的变化,计算结果与试验结果符合得较好,非线性双渐进法适用于分析三维刚体波、流中入水问题。结果表明在近波面附近,结构受波浪作用明显,入水相位、浪级、流速及波流速度矢量差异对结构入水运动速度及轨迹影响明显。     

粉质粘土及粉土地基承载力分布概型的最佳平方逼近

利用搜集到的石家庄市区粉质粘土及粉土互层土层上91个点载荷试验数据,运用最佳平方逼近法建立了地基承载力概率分布模型,给出石家庄市区粉质粘土及粉土互层地基极限承载力的多项式分布公式,并与经典正态和对数正态分布模型进行比较,说明其更接近实际分布,精度较高。对以后具体工程设计参数的优选具有重要意义。     

基于实测数据的路段可靠性近似算法研究

利用北京市快速路与主干路的流量与车速实测数据,分析交通流量的变化规律,拟合流量-速度关系;分别采用车速和流量计算可靠度与饱和度,得到欠饱和与超饱和状态下可靠度与饱和度之间的一一对应关系,从而建立可靠度与饱和度之间的关系模型;最后利用实测数据对该模型进行了验证,结果表明快速路最大误差为0．0885,主干路最大误差为0．0923．     

Using kinematic driving data to detect sleep apnea treatment adherence

People spend a significant amount of time behind the wheel of a car. Recent advances in data collection facilitate continuously monitoring this behavior. Previous work demonstrates the importance of this data in driving safety but does not extended beyond the driving domain. One potential extension of this data is to identify driver states related to health conditions such as obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). We collected driving data and medication adherence from a sample of 75 OSA patients over 3.5 months. We converted speed and acceleration behaviors to symbols using symbolic aggregate approximation and converted these symbols to pattern frequencies using a sliding window. The resulting frequency data was matched with treatment adherence information. A random forest model was trained on the data and evaluated using a held-aside test dataset. The random forest model detects lapses in treatment adherence. An assessment of variable importance suggests that the important patterns of driving in classification correspond to route decisions and patterns that may be associated with drowsy driving. The success of this approach suggests driving data may be valuable for evaluating new treatments, analyzing side effects of medications, and that the approach may benefit other drowsiness detection algorithms.     

Numerical investigation of the collapse pressure of concentric tubes with frictionless and tied interface

The understanding and study of the mechanical behavior of submarine pipes have significant relevance in ocean exploration, allowing the application of these structures in adverse conditions. In this sense, protecting the tube's internal surface is vital for the transportation of corrosive materials, threatening structural integrity. Usually, the external surface is at constant hydrostatic pressure, leading to possible structural failure if the project does not consider all failure modes. Within the framework of Metallurgically Cladded Pipes (MCP) and Mechanically Lined Pipes (MLP), Corrosion-Resistant Alloys (CRAs) are inserted in the internal surface of pipelines. However, they are not typically deemed in the structural analysis as an integrant part of the mechanical resistance for the external load. This work presents an initial analytical proposal to calculate the collapse pressure of concentric tubes incorporating the rigidity provided by the CRA. Tied or frictionless numerical models are assumed to describe the interaction between the two bodies at the interface region. These two scenarios establish the upper and lower boundaries for cases where friction is part of the problem. The methodology applies a least-square minimization function based on nonlinear finite element simulations to extract analytical expressions that estimate the collapse pressure. An effort is made to reduce the number of sensitive parameters involved in the analytical proposals and minimize the complexity of the formulation. This process allows the analyst to visualize which parameters are more relevant in various scenarios. Nevertheless, the main goal is to evaluate how the variables are coupled and develop a methodology that can be adapted to reproduce the analyst's necessities.