冰雪条件下中国驾驶员跟驰行为及模型研究

分析驾驶员在冰雪条件下的驾驶行为特性,建立考虑驾驶员行为特性的跟驰模型,有助于丰富现有交通流理论.通过招募驾驶员开展实车跟驰试验,对比分析正常条件与冰雪条件下的驾驶行为差异.进而基于任务难度均衡理论构建包含人类因素参数的任务难度模块,引入改进后的智能驾驶员模型,并采用车辆轨迹数据对模型进行标定和有效性验证.研究表明：驾驶员在跟驰行驶过程中受外界刺激及自身驾驶能力影响时会对车辆行驶状态进行动态调整,试图保持期望间距,且速度与前车一致的状态;冰雪条件下驾驶员采取风险补偿行为,其车头时距波动幅度较正常条件收窄,模型引入人类因素参数可以较好地描述其差异性. 模型有效性验证表明,新模型在6个仿真场景中的表现都优于传统智能驾驶员模型,且表现出更好的鲁棒性.研究结果可为冰雪条件下的交通管理措施制定提供理论支持.     

双轴汽车模型下某车型的振动分析

将双轴汽车多自由度模型简化成四自由度的平面模型,忽略了车轮部分质量及刚度的影响。把质量m的车身等效的分解为前后轴以及质心C上的三个集中质量m2f、m2r及m2c,这三个质量由无质量的刚性杆进行连接。分析在该模型下振动输入对车身垂直和俯仰运动的影响,重点研究在有阻尼情况下双轴汽车模型的偏频和振型分析。     

高铁枢纽建设与城市功能空间协同发展效率评价

随着我国高铁迅速发展,高铁建设如何与城市功能空间协同发展的问题引起广泛关注。为了评价高铁与城市协同发展的效率,本文从城市协同性、高铁枢纽建设、站城距离等角度,构建高铁枢纽建设与城市功能空间协同发展效率评价指标体系。并引入DEA模型进行分析计算其效率匹配度,为城市既有高铁站与城市协同发展程度提供依据。最后以京沪高铁为案例分析了24个车站与所在城市的协同关系效率值,结果表明,北京南站、上海虹桥站等高铁枢纽发展较好,常州北站、苏州北站、天津南站等较差,尤其是天津南站的通过能力、客流量等产出指标还需要进一步加强。     

基于客户满意度的货运动车组开行方案研究

高铁货运逐渐兴起,本文对货运动车组开行方案优化进行了研究。针对高铁运输安全、快捷、运输成本较低等特性,提出以货运动车组及客货混编动车组为主,客运动车组捎带运输为补充的开行模式,结合运输需求、线路通过能力等限条件,以运输成本最小和货主满意度最大为目标,建立多目标综合优化模型,运用线性加权组合法,以lingo软件为依托进行求解。通过算例给出具体开行方案,并对同一运输区间各种运输方式的单位成本及用时进行对比分析。结果表明,相对于传统运输方式,高铁货运综合运输成本较低,用时更短,能够兼顾运输企业与货主的双重要求;所建模型优化效果明显,可为未来货运动车组的开行提供参考。     

干船坞气控卧倒门的仿真模型

深入了解干船坞气控卧倒门系统的动态特性,以便缩短坞门的设计周期,节约试验费用;运用机械系统动力学自动分析软件ADAMS,建立了干船坞气控卧倒门系统的动力学仿真模型。通过对仿真模型的运行表明:用所述的仿真模型研究干船坞气控卧倒坞门系统的动态特性是完全可行的。     

基于AR-EMD方法的扩展非平稳船舶运动极短期预报AR模型

准确的极短期预报技术能够提高对船舶摇荡运动敏感的海洋特种作业安全性和效率。自回归（auto-regressive,AR）预报模型由于其自适应性强、计算效率高而被广泛应用于船舶运动的极短期预报研究。但该模型基于平稳随机假设,因而在非平稳船舶运动的极短期预报中存在困难。针对非平稳船舶运动极短期预报,文章提出一种基于AR-EMD方法的扩展AR模型,称为EMD-AR预报模型。其中,AR-EMD方法是指在经验模态分解（empirical mode decomposition,EMD）的过程中,采用AR预报的方法处理端点效应问题。 EMD-AR预报模型将非平稳信号分解成若干平稳的固有模态函数分量及余项,然后对各个分量分别用AR模型预报,得到最终的预报结果,以此克服非平稳性对AR预报模型的影响。研究基于船舶试验数据将EMD-AR模型与线性AR模型、非线性支持向量机回归（support vector regression,SVR）预报模型进行对比分析,结果表明,AR-EMD方法能够有效处理船舶运动非平稳性对AR预报模型的影响,提高该模型的预报精度,且EMD-AR模型预报性能较线性AR模型和非线性SVR模型更优。     

Interpreting employee telecommuting adoption: An economics perspective

Travel demand is derived from activities at the trip destination; therefore, media that have the potential to provide services previously only supported by transportation will have a chance to be chosen by passengers. The idea of telecommuting is considered the most promising substitute of work trips and thus a good strategy of transportation demand management. From a microeconomics perspective, demand for goods or services can be interpreted as a function of prices and generalized income. Therefore, telecommuting adoption is viewed as a trade-off among the prices of telecommuting itself, substitutes, and complements, as well as generalized income and situational constrains incurred by the employee. The underlying rationale is interpreted by elasticity analysis of aggregate telecommuting demand, based on an adoption model, with respect to various decision variable. The results indicate that the elasticity with respect to the price that the employee may incur in order to telecommute is the largest one, and the elasticity with respect to the living space at home is the second one. Additionally, all of the elasticities found in the group of employees currently commuting by private transportation are greater than the corresponding ones found in the group of transit riders. These findings are expected to have significant implications of transportation policies. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Evolution of latent modal captivity and mode choice patterns for commuting trips: A longitudinal analysis using repeated cross-sectional datasets

This paper presents an investigation of the temporal evolution of commuting mode choice preference structures. It contributes to two specific modelling issues: latent modal captivity and working with multiple repeated crossectional datasets. In this paper latent modal captivity refers to captive reliance on a specific mode rather than all feasible modes. Three household travel survey datasets collected in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) over a ten-year time period are used for empirical modelling. Datasets collected in different years are pooled and separate year-specific scale parameters and coefficients of key variables are estimated for different years. The empirical model clearly explains that there have been significant changes in latent modal captivity and the mode choice preference structures for commuting in the GTHA. Changes have occurred in the unexplained component of latent captivities, in transportation cost perceptions, and in the scales of commuting mode choice preferences. The empirical model also demonstrates that pooling multiple repeated cross-sectional datasets is an efficient way of capturing behavioural changes over time. Application of the proposed mode choice model for practical policy analysis and forecasting will ensure accurate forecasting and an enhanced understanding of policy impacts.     

地面注汽管线表面散热损失影响因素分析

文中采用Fluent模拟与理论计算结合比较的方法,研究了不同因素对蒸汽管道散热损失的影响规律,并分析了理论计算模型的相对误差.发现增加注汽管线距地面高度,对其散热损失影响较弱;空气温度升高,注汽管道表面散热损失降低;风速和表面发射率对注汽管线表面热损失影响较大;数值模拟结果与理论计算数据相对误差较大.     

优化GM（1,1）模型在连续刚构桥施工监控中的应用

文章结合优化GM（1,1）模型用于罗天乐大桥施工监控的工程实例,介绍了优化GM（1,1）模型的原理、计算方法及计算过程,并根据实际监控经验提出了建议。罗天乐大桥的具体施工监控实践表明,优化GM（1,1）模有着较高的预测精度,能较好地应用于大跨度连续刚构桥的施工监控。