城市轨道交通进站客流量短时预测模型研究

利用数学方法可以改善城市轨道交通进站客流量的短时预测效果,促进轨道交通车站客流管理智能化水平。首先建立K近邻非参数回归模型,然后在传统卡尔曼滤波模型的观测方程中引入偏差修正系数以提高其预测精度;再采用贝叶斯方法将以上两模型进行组合;最后利用2013年11月北京市地铁13号线的进站客流数据,研究对比这三类模型在早高峰、平峰、晚高峰和全天的预测精度。结果表明:K近邻非参数回归的总体预测精度最高;贝叶斯组合预测模型次之,但平峰时段效果最好;基于偏差修正系数的卡尔曼滤波模型晚高峰时适用性较差。     

城市轨道交通票务收益精确清分模型的研究与应用

在现有的上海轨道交通票务收益清分模型的基础上提出并设计了“改进清分模型”,通过结合上海轨道交通首末班车时刻表,引入了可达路径判断规则,剔除实际不可达路径,增加了收益清分的精确度。并基于目前上海轨道交通线网的特点,以及运营开始和结束时间,检验了该改进清分模型的可靠性和使用性。     

Alterations in nutrient limitations — Scenarios of a changing Baltic Sea

Previous trend studies have shown increasing nitrogen and phosphorus as well as decreasing silica concentrations in the water mass of the Baltic Sea. This has had an impact on the amount of primary production, but also on the quality and succession of plankton species. Present study examines the spatial and temporal patterns of potential nutrient limitations in the Baltic Sea for the time period 1970–2000. Generally, low concentrations of DSi can limit the diatom blooms and such conditions are found in the Gulf of Riga and Gulf of Finland during spring and summer. Nutrient ratios, DSi:DIN, DSi:DIP and DIN:DIP, are often used to determine which nutrient may limit the primary production. Annual long-term temporal trends of silica to inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus respectively show consistent decreasing patterns. The largest slopes are detected during spring and summer for DSi:DIN and during spring for DSi:DIP ratios. For the DIN:DIP ratio significant slopes are only found in a few locations despite increasing levels for both nutrients, displaying a large variation in trends. In the open Baltic Proper the present trends are positive during winter and negative during spring and autumn. Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga are areas where both DSi:DIP and DSi:DIN ratios are found close to the Redfield ratios for diatoms. Together with the evaluated trends these suggest that the Gulfs may become silica limited in a relatively near future. These findings give some implications on the development and impact of changing nutrient concentrations.     

Experiences with Competitive Tendering of Bus Services in Germany

Abstract

After a long transition period with only a few isolated procedures for competitive tendering, the market for German public transport bus services has seen numerous such tenders in recent years. The results are complex. From the public transport authorities’ point of view, the main effects are a decrease in subsidy payments, with relatively low expenses relating to the tendering process (allocation, contract management). The overall level of competition is high, with five to seven bidders on average, although this has been declining in recent years. Entry barriers have been identified at significant levels for several parameters, especially with respect to the volume tendered and the revenue risk to be borne by the operator out of net‐cost contracts. Demonstrably small‐ and medium‐sized transport operators have been able to increase their market share in the starting phase of introducing tendering, with diminishing success rates in recent years. Due to the increased quality requirements in competitive tendering, the quality of public transport available has improved considerably, and environmental standards have been better implemented and sustained. As far as employees are concerned, a trend towards wages below the wage rate of private operators cannot be observed. However, their level is well below the level of public incumbent operators.     

强震作用下带屈曲约束支撑的K型网壳整体结构性能分析

以K6型网壳为研究对象,考虑网壳支承结构的弹性效应,并在支承结构中设置屈曲约束支撑（BRB）,考虑在9度区强震作用下,通过不同的屈曲约束支撑布置方式对结构进行动力弹塑性分析.结果表明,在考虑整体网壳支承结构共同工作时,结构主要节点位移和杆件内力响应都有所减小;网壳上部结构设置屈曲约束支撑能够有效降低节点位移和杆件内力响应;考虑上部和下部设置屈曲约束支撑共同工作对于K6型网壳减振耗能有很好的效果.     

大众帕萨特领驭1.8T轿车ABS故障排除浅析

轿车ABS(制动防抱死系统)作为车辆的主动安全装置之一,其工作性能的好坏会直接影响车辆的行车安全。本文主要针对一款大众帕萨特领驭1.8T轿车ABS系统出现的故障(故障警告灯K47不熄灭),进行分析诊断,最终得到故障排除方法。     

冷再生中粒式混合料目标级配范围研究

为了使冷再生混合料的性能得到提高,从影响冷再生混合料的关键因素一级配人手,基于国内外冷再生级配范围的研究和工程应用,通过N法、K法和I法等方法设计级配,经过贝雷法级配检验,得出冷再生中粒式混合料目标级配范围,并通过混合料性能试验,得出按所推荐的级配范围设计的冷再生混合料性能较优。     

基于K means聚类算法的盾构掘进参数设定方法研究

盾构掘进参数的合理设定是保障盾构隧道施工质量和安全的基础。为实现掘进参数的准确设定,基于典型工程类比设定理论,将K means聚类算法与经验公式设定法相结合,提出盾构掘进参数类比设定法（SAPAS）,实现典型工程工况掘进参数的自动提取和匹配。与传统的经验公式法相比,SAPAS改善了经验公式的实际使用效果,能够更准确地进行参数设定,有利于提高施工质量和安全。通过在上海轨道交通的部分工程中进行实践,取得了良好的施工效果。     

siRNA directed against TrkA sensitizes human pancreatic cancer cells to apoptosis induced by gemcitabine through an inactivation of PI3K/Akt-dependent pathway

Pancreatic cancer is a lethal disease.Despite sig-nificant advances in diagnosis,staging,and surgicalmanagement of the disease,less than10%of pa-tients survive for more than one year fromthe ti meof diagnosis[1-2].The largely refractory response tochemotherapy is a common feature of this disease,and eventhe principal therapeutic agent,the nucleo-side analogue gemcitabine(2′,2′-difluorodeoxycyt-idine),only marginally affects clinical outcomes[3].Therefore,further understanding of the chemores…     

三硝基苯磺酸/乙醇灌肠液诱导大鼠溃疡性结肠炎TLR4/NF-κB和PI3K/AKT/NF-κB信号通路的表达及电针的干预作用

目的探讨三硝基苯磺酸(TNBS)/乙醇灌肠液诱导大鼠溃疡性结肠炎TLR4/NF-κB和PI3K/AKT/NF-κB信号通路的表达及电针的干预作用。方法雄性Wistar大鼠240只,随机分为正常对照组、模型组、电针组、TLR4单克隆抗体(TLR4mAb)组、LY294002组和TLR4mAb-LY294002联合治疗(T&L)组。以TNBS/乙醇溶液灌肠诱导大鼠溃疡性结肠炎模型,电针组造模同时给予电针足三里穴治疗,TLR4mAb组给予TLR4mAb腹腔注射,LY294002组则予LY294002注射液腹腔注射,T&L组则同时给与上述TLR4mAb和LY294002腹腔注射,共4周,每日行疾病活动指数(DAI)评分。造模4周后处死大鼠取结肠组织标本,评价结肠黏膜损伤指数(CMDI)和组织学损伤指数(TDI);免疫印迹法测定结肠黏膜磷酸化AKT(P-AKT)和活化NF-κB含量;RT-PCR法检测结肠组织中TLR4mRNA、PI3K mRNA、AKT mRNA、NF-κB mRNA、TNF-αmRNA及IL-1βmRNA表达。结果与正常对照组比较,模型组结肠组织TLR4mRNA、PI3K mRNA、P-AKT、活化NF-κB、TNF-αmRNA、IL-1βmRNA表达和DAI、CMDI及TDI均显著升高(P<0.01);与模型组比较,TLR4mAb组TLR4mRNA表达显著下降(P<0.01),LY294002组PI3K mRNA、P-AKT表达显著下降(P<0.01),而在电针组和T&L组TLR4mRNA、PI3K mRNA及P-AKT表达均明显降低(P<0.01);与上述变化相对应,与模型组相比,各治疗组活化NF-κB、TNF-αmRNA、IL-1βmRNA表达和DAI、CMDI及TDI均明显降低(P<0.05或P<0.01),电针组和T&L组上述6指标优于TLR4mAb组和LY294002组,活化NF-κB与TNF-αmRNA及IL-1βmRNA表达呈正相关(r1=0.579,P<0.05;r2=0.561,P<0.05)。结论电针足三里穴能显著降低实验性溃疡性结肠炎大鼠的NF-κB活性及TNF-αmRNA、IL-1βmRNA表达,从而减轻结肠组织损害程度,这与其阻断TLR4/NF-κB和PI3K/AKT/NF-κB信号通路有密切关系。