Simple analytical models for estimating the queue lengths from probe vehicles at traffic signals

As mobile traffic sensor technology gets more attention, mathematical models are being developed that utilize this new data type in various intelligent transportation systems applications. This study introduces simple analytical estimation models for queue lengths from tracked or probe vehicles at traffic signals using stochastic modeling approach. Developed models estimate cycle-to-cycle queue lengths by using primary parameters such as arrival rate, probe vehicle proportions, and signal phase durations. Valuable probability distributions and moment generating functions for probe information types are formulated. Fully analytical closed-form expressions are given for the case ignoring the overflow queue and approximation models are presented for the overflow case. Derived models are compared with the results from VISSIM-microscopic simulation. Analytical steady-state and cycle-to-cycle estimation errors are also derived. Numerical examples are shown for the errors of these estimators that change with probe vehicle market penetration levels, arrival rates, and volume-to-capacity ratios.     

Suitability of Decision-Theoretic Models to Public Policy Issues Concerning the Provision of Shoreline Stabilization and Hazard Management

This article examines the suitability and potential advances of decision-theoretic models from finance regarding investment decisions in shoreline stabilization projects. A set of scenarios represents the dynamics of the decision-state facing the planner and identifies factors that should be incorporated into the decision-making process. It is shown that decision models from finance can account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in shoreline stabilization projects, potentially suggest improvements and refinements to presently used cost-benefit analysis procedures, and offer new tools that can aid in decisions concerning provision of shoreline stabilization. The outcomes of these scenarios justify better planning and control of existing and future building, and that of poststorm policies. Lastly, these models allow us to explore the range of our understanding of coastal processes and interactions with shoreline stabilization projects and can identify new and useful data needed in coastal management and hazard management decisions.     

Data Fusion-Based Traffic Density Estimation and Prediction

Traffic congestion has become a major challenge in recent years in many countries of the world. One way to alleviate congestion is to manage the traffic efficiently by applying intelligent transportation systems (ITS). One set of ITS technologies helps in diverting vehicles from congested parts of the network to alternate routes having less congestion. Congestion is often measured by traffic density, which is the number of vehicles per unit stretch of the roadway. Density, being a spatial characteristic, is difficult to measure in the field. Also, the general approach of estimating density from location-based measures may not capture the spatial variation in density. To capture the spatial variation better, density can be estimated using both location-based and spatial data sources using a data fusion approach. The present study uses a Kalman filter to fuse spatial and location-based data for the estimation of traffic density. Subsequently, the estimated data are utilized for predicting density to future time intervals using a time-series regression model. The models were estimated and validated using both field and simulated data. Both estimation and prediction models performed well, despite the challenges arising from heterogeneous traffic flow conditions prevalent in India.     

铁路线路技术标准与运量水平之间的耦合关系研究

为了确定铁路线路技术标准与运量水平之间的耦合关系,分析运量水平主导线路主要技术标准类项目特性和线路技术标准主导运量水平类项目特性,从供需平衡角度出发,得出运量构成机制和线路标准条件从能力供给到运量诱发的质变条件。     

美国交通运输机构及职能简介

从4个层次分别介绍美国联邦政府运输机构、美国联邦独立运输管理机构、美国地方交通运输机构及美国道路交通管理机构的职能分工，侧重于其在道路交通管理方面的职能。     

老旧散货船营运缺陷与管理探讨

针对老旧散货船在营运中安全问题,阐述了加强老旧散货船的营运管理,做好安全防范,采取正确的管理措施是确保船舶营运安全的前提。重点探讨了老旧散货船的营运缺陷,分析了缺陷可能产生的后果,提出了营运中应采取的管理措施及建议。     

公路隧道交通量的预测及分析

公路隧道交通量的预测对隧道通风系统的节能以及降低隧道运营成本有很重要的意义。分别利用多元统计分析法和BP神经网络两种方法对公路隧道交通量进行了预测,并对两类预测数据进行分析比较,得出了多元统计分析法适用于车流量少而且稳定的公路隧道的预测,而BP神经网络法则适用于车流量大而且不稳定的公路隧道的预测的结论。     

朔黄铁路调度优化系统研究

为提高轴重300 k N以上重载铁路运输效率,建立基于车-地连续通信的调度优化系统,通过对历史运行数据进行充分的分析计算,得出优化的列车运行计划,并实时监督列车的运行状况,优化行车密度,实时调整运行计划,从而优化列车运行策略,提高效益。     

Application of traffic microsimulation for evaluating safety performance of urban signalized intersections

The primary objective of this paper is to provide a statistical relationship between traffic conflicts estimated from microsimulation and observed crashes in order to evaluate safety performance, in particular the effect of countermeasures. A secondary objective is to assess the effect of conflict risk tolerance and number of simulation runs on the estimates of countermeasure effects so obtained. Conflicts were simulated for a sample of signalized intersections from Toronto, Canada, using VISSIM microscopic traffic simulation and several crash–conflict relationships were obtained. A separate sample of treated intersections from Toronto was used to compare countermeasure effects from the integrated crash–conflict expression to a conventional, but rigorous crash-based Empirical Bayes before-and-after analysis that was already done, with the results published, for the same sites and treatment. The countermeasure considered for this investigation involved changing the left turn signal operation for the treated intersection sample from permissive to protected-permissive. The results support the view that countermeasure effects can be estimated reliably from conflicts derived from microsimulation, and more so when a suitable number of simulation runs and conflict tolerance thresholds are used in the crash–conflict relationship.