Aircraft trajectory forecasting using local functional regression in Sobolev space

This paper considers the problem of short to mid-term aircraft trajectory prediction, that is, the estimation of where an aircraft will be located over a 10–30 min time horizon. Such a problem is central in decision support tools, especially in conflict detection and resolution algorithms. It also appears when an air traffic controller observes traffic on the radar screen and tries to identify convergent aircraft, which may be in conflict in the near future. An innovative approach for aircraft trajectory prediction is presented in this paper. This approach is based on local linear functional regression that considers data preprocessing, localizing and solving linear regression using wavelet decomposition. This algorithm takes into account only past radar tracks, and does not use any physical or aeronautical parameters. This approach has been successfully applied to aircraft trajectories between several airports on the data set that is one year air traffic over France. The method is intrinsic and independent from airspace structure.     

海上智能交通系统体系的构建与实现

海上智能交通系统构建的关键是实现船舶航行自动化和对海上交通能够实行有效的管理,从宏观角度可归结为船舶的避碰。但以往的避碰研究都对信息的交流考虑不够。基于系统的思想,我们认为把协商决策引入船舶避碰才能发挥系统整体的最佳效能,提出了建立海上智能交通系统的框架与结构体系,并探讨了其具体实现及关键技术和问题。最后对其未来发展进行展望,给出了相关建议。     

轨道交通站点购票客流预测及优化技术研究

将地铁中高峰时段购票客流看成排队论系统,结合排队论知识进行数据优化,利用MATLAB编制BP神经网络模型的程序,建立仿真并预测站点购票客流及自动售票机的需求量,从而达到应急售票服务的优化,提升乘客服务满意度.并以某市大客流站点的客流数据进行论证.     

交通控制设施的可视性与交通安全

重视交通控制设施建设是构建现代立体化交通网络与保障道路交通安全的重要措施,也对人民群众生命安全、各行业经济发展及和谐社会建设等产生了促进作用。文章简单分析交通控制设施的可视性,为实现交通安全的目标提出一些具体可操作的新建议。     

基于车灯追踪的夜间交通信息采集方法

本文提出了一种专门用于采集夜间交通信息的新方法。车灯是在夜间路网中行驶的车辆最突出的视觉特征,通过对视频图像中的车灯灯光区域进行识别、追踪,可以确定车辆的位置和粗略的轨迹,基于此,可以进行流量、速度等交通参数的计算和统计。本文给出了详细的技术路线描述,并针对流量统计进行了软件程序实现,通过试验,证明了方法的可行性。     

交通宁静化及对路网的影响

交通宁静化的基本思想是通过采取一系列有效措施来抑制机动车需求,从而实现居民区交通的宁静化,为行人和自行车提供安全、舒适的环境。分析几种常见的交通宁静化措施及其适用性,阐述了进行交通宁静化措施影响分析的要点,探讨交通宁静化措施对路网的影响分析方法,并建立了路网影响分析模型。     

Feebates, footprints and highway safety

This paper presents an analysis of a market-based policy aimed at encouraging manufacturers to develop more fuel efficient vehicles without affecting the car buyer’s choice of vehicle size. A vehicle’s size is measured by its “footprint”, the product of track width and wheelbase. Traditional market-based policies to promote higher fuel economy, such as higher gasoline taxes or gas guzzler taxes, also induce motorists to purchase smaller vehicles. Whether or not such policies affect overall road safety remains controversial, however. Feebates, a continuous schedule of new vehicle taxes and rebates as a function of vehicle fuel consumption, can also be made a function of vehicle size, thus removing the incentive to buy a smaller vehicle. A feebate system based on a vehicle’s footprint creates the same incentive to adopt technology to improve fuel economy as simple feebate systems while removing any incentive for manufacturers or consumers to downsize vehicles.     

基于模糊集理论的公路建设项目综合评价

建立了一种基于模糊集理论的公路建设项目综合评价方法,分别通过评价语言变量和权重语言变量将评价指标体系的定性指标和定量指标及权重全部转化为三角形模糊数,克服了定性与定量评价指标不具可比性的缺点;基于最优度概念,将权重模糊评价矩阵转化成模糊单一评价矩阵,避免传统模糊数之间比较的复杂性和不精确性;考虑到评价者在模糊评价环境下对风险的态度,将乐观系数引入评价过程;采用TOPSIS方法计算出评价方案的综合评价分数并进行排序。实例研究结果与主成分分析法的结果一致,表明了方法的合理性和有效性。     

试论武汉市绿色交通现状及应对措施

绿色交通就是发展一套多元化的都市交通工具,以建立减低交通拥挤、降低污染、节省费用的交通运输系统。绿色交通的主旨是减少个人交通工具的使用,提倡大众运输,改良与开发替代燃料与车辆系统,鼓励非机动车辆的出行方式。武汉要率先在中部崛起,实现绿色交通势在必然。其应对措施就是高度重视交通规划和建设,在推进道路交通向"通"与"畅"发展的同时,进一步发展以轨道交通为先导、以电车为基础及常规公交快线为主体的快速客运交通系统,加强交通管理,提升交通运输系统的综合功能。