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船舶横摇非线性运动最大值预报 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
横摇运动振幅渐近分布属于指数型分布,根据应用Markov过程理论得到的极值分布推导了最大值分布公式,同时提出了最大值预报方法。计算表明用此方法预报的最大值与实际统计的最大值非常接近,它比用线性理论预报的最大值误差要小,证明本文提出的最大值预报方法是可行的。 相似文献
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此文在系统工程的基础上,采用Reason模型,从船员—船舶—环境—管理四个环节来分析海上交通运输安全问题,并提出相关对策和建议,以提高安全管理水平,降低船舶事故的发生率,促进海上交通运输的安全发展、和谐发展。 相似文献
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Barbara Schmucki 《Research in Transportation Economics》2012,34(1):74-85
Using photographs, this paper explores the gendered link between transport and the urban environment. It becomes apparent that moving around in urban spaces is an experience which is or can be fundamentally different for women and men. From pictures I conclude that a historical analysis of gender and urban transport ought to be a straightforward task to undertake: women are clearly visible in the visual record of the transport environment. However, a look at the historiography shows that research on gendering the city mostly deals with workplaces, women’s employment, class and race segregation in urban areas, welfare programmes specially designed to helped women, urban housing and marginalisation of women, housewives, healthcare, homeless women and politics. Gender and transport is hardly to be found: how women move and moved through urban space has not received sustained attention. Further, the main body of scholarly texts lacks in historical concern, stemming from such diverse disciplines as sociology, geography, economic and political sciences, women’s studies and planning. 相似文献
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The speed-density or flow-density relationship has been considered as the foundation of traffic flow theory. Existing single-regime models calibrated by the least square method (LSM) could not fit the empirical data consistently well both in light-traffic/free-flow conditions and congested/jam conditions. In this paper, first, we point out that the inaccuracy of single-regime models is not caused solely by their functional forms, but also by the sample selection bias. Second, we apply a weighted least square method (WLSM) that addresses the sample selection bias problem. The calibration results for six well-known single-regime models using the WLSM fit the empirical data reasonably well both in light-traffic/free-flow conditions and congested/jam conditions. Third, we conduct a theoretical investigation that reveals the deficiency associated with the LSM is because the expected value of speed (or a function of it) is nonlinear with regard to the density (or a function of it). 相似文献
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Given a road network, a fundamental object of interest is the matrix of origin destination (OD) flows. Estimation of this matrix involves at least three sub-problems: (i) determining a suitable set of traffic analysis zones, (ii) the formulation of an optimisation problem to determine the OD matrix, and (iii) a means of evaluating a candidate estimate of the OD matrix. This paper describes a means of addressing each of these concerns. We propose to automatically uncover a suitable set of traffic analysis zones based on observed link flows. We then employ regularisation to encourage the estimation of a sparse OD matrix. We finally propose to evaluate a candidate OD matrix based on its predictive power on held out link flows. Analysis of our approach on a real-world transport network reveals that it discovers automated zones that accurately capture regions of interest in the network, and a corresponding OD matrix that accurately predicts observed link flows. 相似文献