In search of surrogate safety indicators for vulnerable road users: a review of surrogate safety indicators

Surrogate indicators are meant to be alternatives or complements of safety analyses based on accident records. These indicators are used to study critical traffic events that occur more frequently, making such incidents easier to analyse. This article provides an overview of existing surrogate indicators and specifically focuses on their merit for the analyses of vulnerable road users and the extent to which they have been validated by previous research. Each indicator is evaluated based on its ability to consider the collision risk, which can be further divided into the initial conditions of an event, the magnitude of any evasive action and the injury risk in any traffic event. The results show that various indicators and their combinations can reflect different aspects of any traffic event. However, no existing indicator seems to capture all aspects. Various studies have also focused on the validity of different indicators. However, due to the use of diverse approaches to validation, the large difference in how many locations were investigated and variations in the duration of observation at each location, it is difficult to compare and discuss the validity of the different surrogate safety indicators. Since no current indicator can properly reflect all the important aspects underlined in this article, the authors suggest that the choice of a suitable indicator in future surrogate safety studies should be made with considerations of the context-dependent suitability of the respective indicator.     

Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

基于HMM-SVR的船舶动力设备故障模式识别与状态预测研究

船舶动力设备因故障监测信号样本少、变化缓慢且数据特征呈非线性,使得设备故障模式的准确识别和状态预测比较难。鉴于此,文章研究了基于隐马尔科夫模型的故障模式识别方法,利用该模型将微弱变化的信号特征转换为变化较大的对数似然概率对故障模式实现有效识别。在此基础上进一步提出基于HMM-SVR的设备状态预测模型,将遗传算法用于支持向量回归模型参数寻优,并结合隐马尔科夫模型,实现对设备状态的预测。对船用柴油机进行仿真,结果表明上述模型具有较高的识别率,能准确预测船舶动力设备的当前状态。     

Predicting queue variability to enable analysis of overload risk

ABSTRACT

Predicting the risk of traffic demands and delays exceeding critical limits at road junctions, airports, hospitals, etc., requires knowing how both mean and variance of queue size vary over time. Microscopic simulation can explore variability but is computationally demanding and gives only sample results. A computationally efficient approximation to the mean is used in many modelling tools, but only empirical extensions for variance in particular situations have been available. The paper derives theoretical formulae for time-dependent and equilibrium variance, believed to be novel and to apply generally to queues covered by the Pollaczek–Khinchin mean formula, and offering possible structural insights. These are applied in an extended approximation giving mutually consistent mean and variance estimates with improved accuracy. Tests on oversaturated peak demand cases are compared with Markov probabilistic simulation, demonstrating accuracy (R^2?>?0.99) for typical random, priority-like (M/M/1) and traffic-signal-like (M/D/1) queues. Implications for risk analysis, planning and policy are considered.     

Genetics of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning

This paper presents a review and classification of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning purposes by using concepts analogous to genetics in biology. Traffic assignment models share the same theoretical framework (DNA), but differ in capability (genes). We argue that all traffic assignment models can be described by three genes. The first gene determines the spatial capability (unrestricted, capacity restrained, capacity constrained, and capacity and storage constrained) described by four spatial assumptions (shape of the fundamental diagram, capacity constraints, storage constraints, and turn flow restrictions). The second gene determines the temporal capability (static, semi-dynamic, and dynamic) described by three temporal assumptions (wave speeds, vehicle propagation speeds, and residual traffic transfer). The third gene determines the behavioural capability (all-or-nothing, one shot, and equilibrium) described by two behavioural assumptions (decision-making and travel time consideration). This classification provides a deeper understanding of the often implicit assumptions made in traffic assignment models described in the literature. It further allows for comparing different models in terms of functionality, and paves the way for developing novel traffic assignment models.     

Direct formulation and algorithms for the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium traffic assignment problem

This paper proposes simple and direct formulation and algorithms for the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium traffic assignment problem. It is only necessary to account for random variables independent of link flows by performing a simple transformation of the perceived link travel time with a normal distribution. At every iteration of a Monte-Carlo simulation procedure, the values of the random variables are sampled based on their probability distributions, and then a regular deterministic user equilibrium assignment is carried out to produce link flows. The link flows produced at each iteration of the Monte-Carlo simulation are averaged to yield the final flow pattern. Two test networks demonstrate that the proposed algorithms and the traditional algorithm (the Method of Successive Averages) produce similar results and that the proposed algorithms can be extended to the computation of the case in which the random error term depends on measured travel time.     

深海拖曳系统自稳定二级拖体姿态控制研究

二级深拖系统具有可控性强、母船扰动弱等优点,是重要的海洋探测平台。在实际工作中,二级拖体姿态稳定是保证探测数据准确的基本前提。本文以具有自主调节功能的二级拖体为例,对其姿态控制进行研究。首先建立了二级拖缆的“弹簧——阻尼”模型,并在此基础上建立了二级深拖系统的数学模型。其次根据该系统具有非线性、时变性等特点,设计了具有参数自修正功能的模糊自适应PID控制器,以实现在不同工况下对二级拖体的姿态进行控制。仿真结果表明,未加载控制器时,海况变化对拖体姿态有显著影响,其俯仰角和横滚角均会发生大范围波动。加载模糊自适应PID控制器后,拖体通过自主调节,能够使姿态波动控制在较小范围,从而满足工作要求,验证了拖缆数学模型的正确性和所采用的控制方法的可行性。     

安装状态对扭矩扳子检定结果的影响

针对日常使用及检测扭矩扳子的过程中发现的不同安装状态对被检扭矩扳子的示值误差影响很大这一问题,通过大量的试验数据和经验数据相结合的方法,客观评估安装状态对扭矩扳子测量结果的影响。其中,扳手的水平安装状态及安装同轴度对检定结果影响较大。文章旨在帮助检定测试人员得到相对准确的数据。     

基于扩张观测器的船舶动力定位系统反演滑模变结构控制

针对海洋平台船舶动力定位控制系统,结合反演滑模控制与扩张观测器的优势,提出一种基于扩张观测器的船舶动力定位反演滑模控制方法.考虑到系统存在未知外部干扰以及船舶模型参数不确定性的问题,将系统分为内环观测器和外环控制器分别设计,首先利用扩张观测器估计系统的未知状态及不确定项,然后在外环的反演滑模控制器中进行补偿,最后用Lyapunov方法证明系统的稳定性.通过船舶定点控制仿真实验表明,基于扩张状态观测器的反演滑模控制器使得船舶纵荡和横荡的位置及首摇角度逐渐保持在期望值,具有较强的鲁棒性和控制性,能够有效抑制传统滑模控制的抖振问题,有益于船舶工程应用.     

深埋双线铁路隧道衬砌高水压分界值研究

为研究深埋双线铁路隧道衬砌高水压分界值以及高水压作用下的衬砌受力状态,基于双线铁路隧道设计标准,利用有限元软件计算和分析双线铁路隧道衬砌在不同水压作用下隧道衬砌安全系数的变化规律,确定双线铁路隧道衬砌的高水压分界值。研究结果表明:Ⅱ、Ⅲ级围岩条件下水压力在0~0.05 MPa(约等于隧道净高一半)和Ⅳ、Ⅴ级围岩条件下水压力在0~0.1 MPa(约等于隧道净高)范围内变化时,隧道断面安全系数基本不变。在Ⅱ、Ⅲ级围岩条件下,双线隧道的高水压第一分界值为0.08~0.20 MPa;高水压第二分界值可取为0.40MPa。在Ⅳ、Ⅴ级围岩条件下,双线隧道的高水压第一分界值为0.12~0.35 MPa;高水压第二分界值为0.50 MPa。双线铁路隧道采用标准设计图进行设计时,能够承受的最大静水头为50 m,超过50 m的静水头,则需要优化断面。