Towards a microeconomic framework for modelling the joint choice of activity–travel behaviour and ICT use

The rapid development of information and communication technologies (ICT) has been argued to affect time use patterns in a variety of ways, with consequent impacts on travel behaviour. While there exists a significant body of empirical studies documenting these effects, theoretical developments have lagged this empirical work and in particular, microeconomic time allocation models have not to date been fully extended to accommodate the implications of an increasingly digitised society. To address this gap, we present a modelling framework, grounded in time allocation theories and the goods–leisure framework, for joint modelling of the choice of mode of activity (physical versus tele-activity), travel mode and route, and ICT bundle. By providing the expression for a conditional indirect utility function, we use hypothetical scenarios to demonstrate how our framework can conceptualise various activity–travel decision situations. In our scenarios we assume a variety of situations such as the implications of severe weather, the introduction of autonomous vehicles, and the interaction between multiple decision makers. Moreover, our approach lays the microeconomic foundations for deriving subjective values of ICT qualities such as broadband speed or connection reliability. Finally, we also demonstrate the means by which our framework could be linked to various data collection protocols (stated preference exercises, diaries of social interactions, laboratory experiments) and modelling approaches (discrete choice modelling, hazard-based duration models).     

Making time count: Traveler activity engagement on urban transit

In practice, travel time is assigned a cost and treated as a disutility to be minimized. There is a growing body of research supporting the hypothesis that travel time has some value of its own, and the proliferation of information and communication technology (ICT) may be contributing to that value. Travelers’ attitudes are confounded with their mode choice, and as telecommunications mediate travel behavior, analysts must recognize the interaction between time use and customer satisfaction for appropriate travel demand management. To that end, this paper presents results from jointly estimated models of travelers’ latent satisfaction and on-board activity engagement using Chicago transit rider data gathered in April 2010. The simple questionnaire and small sample corroborate the findings of past research indicating travel attitudes and activity engagement have potential to influence travelers’ value of time, and many transit riders consider transit a better use of time and/or money than driving. The findings affirm the need for a more holistic understanding of value of time for travel demand management and infrastructure valuation. As time use has an influence on users’ valuation of the transit mode, offering opportunities to conduct certain leisure activities could improve the perceived value of travel time.     

基于广西旅游业的道路客运发展探析

文章针对广西道路旅客运输的现状及广西道路客运企业发展旅游业的优越条件,以＂运游结合＂为切入点,介绍以快捷优质的客运服务带动＂慢旅游＂道路客运企业发展旅游业的新模式,对采取＂运游结合＂经营模式,提高服务质量,发展＂慢旅游＂提出了相关的建议。     

Gauging interventions for sustainable travel: A comparative study of travel attitudes in Berlin and London

So-called ‘soft’ policy instruments that respond to the psychological aspects of travel are regularly acknowledged as necessary complements to ‘hard’ infrastructure investments to effectively promote sustainable travel in cities. While studies investigating subjective orientations among travellers have proliferated, open questions remain including the role of recent technological advances, the expansion of alternative mobility services, locally specific mobility cultures and residential selection. This paper presents the methods, results and policy implications of a comparative study aiming to understand mobility attitudes and behaviours in the wider metropolitan regions of Berlin and London. We specifically considered information and communication technology (ICT), new types of mobility services such as car sharing, electric cars and residential preferences. In each region, we identified six comparable segments with distinct attitudinal profiles, socio-demographic properties and behavioural patterns. Geocoding of the home address of respondents further revealed varying contextual opportunities and constraints that are likely to influence travel attitudes. We find that there is significant potential for uptake of sustainable travel practices in both metropolitan regions, if policy interventions are designed and targeted in accordance with group-specific needs and preferences and respond to local conditions of mobility culture. We identify such interventions for each segment and region and conclude that comparative assessment of attitudinal, alongside geographical, characteristics of metropolitan travellers can provide better strategic input for realistic scenario-building and ex-ante assessment of sustainable transport policy.     

The role of alternative fuel vehicles: Using behavioral and sensor data to model hierarchies in travel

Greater adoption and use of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) can be environmentally beneficial and reduce dependence on gasoline. The use of AFVs vis-à-vis conventional gasoline vehicles is not well understood, especially when it comes to travel choices and short-term driving decisions. Using data that contains a sufficiently large number of early AFV adopters (who have overcome obstacles to adoption), this study explores differences in use of AFVs and conventional gasoline vehicles (and hybrid vehicles). The study analyzes large-scale behavioral data integrated with sensor data from global positioning system devices, representing advances in large-scale data analytics. Specifically, it makes sense of data containing 54,043,889 s of speed observations, and 65,652 trips made by 2908 drivers in 5 regions of California. The study answers important research questions about AFV use patterns (e.g., trip frequency and daily vehicle miles traveled) and driving practices. Driving volatility, as one measure of driving practice, is used as a key metric in this study to capture acceleration, and vehicular jerk decisions that exceed certain thresholds during a trip. The results show that AFVs cannot be viewed as monolithic; there are important differences within AFV use, i.e., between plug-in hybrids, battery electric, or compressed natural gas vehicles. Multi-level models are particularly appropriate for analysis, given that the data are nested, i.e., multiple trips are made by different drivers who reside in various regions. Using such models, the study also found that driving volatility varies significantly between trips, driver groups, and regions in California. Some alternative fuel vehicles are associated with calmer driving compared with conventional vehicles. The implications of the results for safety, informed consumer choices and large-scale data analytics are discussed.     

Should we all just stay home? Travel,out-of-home activities,and life satisfaction

How and why travel contributes to our life satisfaction is of considerable import for transportation policy and planning. This paper empirically examines this relationship using data from the American Time Use Survey. It finds that, controlling for relevant demographic, geographic, and temporal covariates, travel time per day is significantly and positively associated with life satisfaction. This relationship is attenuated, but still significant, when the amount of time spent participating in out-of-home activities is controlled for. Time spent bicycling is strongly associated with higher life satisfaction, though it attains significance only in some models; time spent walking is also quite positive, though it is not significant. However, both walking and bicycling are positively and significantly associated with life satisfaction when time spent on purely recreational walking and bicycling is included. Life satisfaction is positively and significantly associated with time spent traveling for the purposes of eating and drinking, religious activities, volunteering, and playing and watching sports. Travel time exhibits a strong positive relationship with life satisfaction in smaller towns and cities, but in large cities the association weakens, and for very large cities travel time may actually not be associated with life satisfaction at all. This may be due to the costs of traffic congestion, which disproportionately exists in large cities. In all, while the associations between travel and life satisfaction are clear, the causal story is complex, with the positive relationships potentially being explained by (1) travel allowing us to access destinations that make us happy, (2) the act of travel itself being fulfilling, and/or (3) intrinsically happier people being more likely to travel. In all likelihood, all three factors are at play.     

A real time forecasting tool for dynamic travel time from clustered time series

This paper addresses the problem of dynamic travel time (DTT) forecasting within highway traffic networks using speed measurements. Definitions, computational details and properties in the construction of DTT are provided. DTT is dynamically clustered using a K-means algorithm and then information on the level and the trend of the centroid of the clusters is used to devise a predictor computationally simple to be implemented. To take into account the lack of information in the cluster assignment for the new predicted values, a weighted average fusion based on a similarity measurement is proposed to combine the predictions of each model. The algorithm is deployed in a real time application and the performance is evaluated using real traffic data from the South Ring of the Grenoble city in France.     

Environmental impacts of transformative land use and transport developments in the Greater Beijing Region: Insights from a new dynamic spatial equilibrium model

This paper reports the insights into environmental impacts of the ongoing transformative land use and transport developments in Greater Beijing, from a new suite of dynamic land use, spatial equilibrium and strategic transport models that is calibrated for medium to long term land use and transport predictions. The model tests are focused on urban passenger travel demand and associated emissions within the municipality of Beijing, accounting for Beijing’s land use and transport interactions with Tianjin, Hebei and beyond. The findings suggests that background trends of urbanization, economic growth and income rises will continue to be very powerful drivers for urban passenger travel demand across all main modes of transport beyond 2030. In order to achieve the dual policy aims for a moderately affluent and equitable nation and reducing the absolute levels of urban transport emissions by 2030, road charging and careful micro-level coordination between land use, built form and public transport provision may need to be considered together for policy implementation in the near future.     

Travel mode estimation for multi-modal journey planner

For route planning and tracking, it is sometimes necessary to know if the user is walking or using some other mode of transport. In most cases, the GPS data can be acquired from the user device. It is possible to estimate user’s transportation mode based on a GPS trace at a sampling rate of once per minute. There has been little prior work on the selection of a set of features from a large number of proposed features, especially for sparse GPS data. This article considers characteristics of distribution, auto- and cross-correlations, and spectral features of speed and acceleration as possible features, and presents an approach to selecting the most significant, non-correlating features from among those. Both speed and acceleration are inferred from changes in location and time between data points. Using GPS traces of buses in the city of Tampere, and of walking, biking and driving from the OpenStreetMap and Microsoft GeoLife projects, spectral bins were found to be among the most significant non-correlating features for differentiating between walking, bicycle, bus and driving, and were used to train classifiers with a fair accuracy. Auto- and cross-correlations, kurtoses and skewnesses were found to be of no use in the classification task. Useful features were found to have a fairly large (>0.4) correlation with each other.     

Experienced travel time prediction for congested freeways

Travel time is an important performance measure for transportation systems, and dissemination of travel time information can help travelers make reliable travel decisions such as route choice or departure time. Since the traffic data collected in real time reflects the past or current conditions on the roadway, a predictive travel time methodology should be used to obtain the information to be disseminated. However, an important part of the literature either uses instantaneous travel time assumption, and sums the travel time of roadway segments at the starting time of the trip, or uses statistical forecasting algorithms to predict the future travel time. This study benefits from the available traffic flow fundamentals (e.g. shockwave analysis and bottleneck identification), and makes use of both historical and real time traffic information to provide travel time prediction. The methodological framework of this approach sequentially includes a bottleneck identification algorithm, clustering of traffic data in traffic regimes with similar characteristics, development of stochastic congestion maps for clustered data and an online congestion search algorithm, which combines historical data analysis and real-time data to predict experienced travel times at the starting time of the trip. The experimental results based on the loop detector data on Californian freeways indicate that the proposed method provides promising travel time predictions under varying traffic conditions.