Urban travel time reliability at different traffic conditions

The decision making of travelers for route choice and departure time choice depends on the expected travel time and its reliability. A common understanding of reliability is that it is related to several statistical properties of the travel time distribution, especially to the standard deviation of the travel time and also to the skewness. For an important corridor in Changsha (P.R. China) the travel time reliability has been evaluated and a linear model is proposed for the relationship between travel time, standard deviation, skewness, and some other traffic characteristics. Statistical analysis is done for both simulation data from a delay distribution model and for real life data from automated number plate recognition (ANPR) cameras. ANPR data give unbiased travel time data, which is more representative than probe vehicles. The relationship between the mean travel time and its standard deviation is verified with an analytical model for travel time distributions as well as with the ANPR travel times. Average travel time and the standard deviation are linearly correlated for single links as well as corridors. Other influence factors are related to skewness and travel time standard deviations, such as vehicle density and degree of saturation. Skewness appears to be less well to explain from traffic characteristics than the standard deviation is.     

A stochastic analysis of highway capacity: Empirical evidence and implications

This paper presents a stochastic characterization of highway capacity and explores its implications on ramp metering control at the corridor level. The stochastic variation of highway capacity is captured through a Space–Time Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (STARIMA) model. It is identified following a Seasonal STARIMA model (0, 0, 2₃) × (0, 1, 0)₂, which indicates that the capacities of adjacent locations are spatially–temporally correlated. Hourly capacity patterns further verify the stochastic nature of highway capacity. The goal of this paper is to study (1) how to take advantage of the extra information, such as capacity variation, and (2) what benefits can be gained from stochastic capacity modeling. The implication of stochastic capacity is investigated through a ramp metering case study. A mean–standard deviation formulation of capacity is proposed to achieve the trade-off between traffic operation efficiency and robustness. Following that, a modified stochastic capacity-constraint ZONE ramp metering scheme embedded cell transmission model algorithm is introduced. The numerical experiment suggests that considering capacity variation information would alleviate the spillback effect and improve throughput. Monte Carlo simulation further supports this argument. This study helps verify and characterize the stochastic nature of capacity, validates the benefits of using capacity variation information, and thus enhances the necessity of implementing stochastic capacity in traffic operation.     

Signal coordination model for local arterial with heavy bus flows

Conventional Transit Signal Priority (TSP) controls often reach the limitation for arterials accommodating heavy bus flows since the priority function can significantly increase delay at minor streets. Under such conditions, a proper signal progression plan that accounts for the benefits of buses may offer the potential to improve the reliability of bus operations and increase the bus ridership. This study proposes a bus-based progression model to reduce the delay of buses on local arterials. Given the cycle length and green splits at each intersection, the bus-based progression model, grounded on the same notion as conventional signal progression methods, considers the operational characteristics of transit vehicles, such as the impact of bus dwell time and the capacity constraints at bus stops. Also, to deal with the stochastic nature of dwell time, this study introduces additional constraints to maximize the percentage of buses which can stay within the green band after leaving bus stops. Taking an arterial with five intersections and three two-way bus stops as an example, this study applies VISSIM as an unbiased tool for model evaluation. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model can significantly reduce bus passenger delays and the average person delays for the entire arterial, compared with the conventional progression models.     

铁路高墩大跨度连续刚构桥抗震设计分析

为保证在罕遇地震下桥梁结构满足规范要求,以主跨120m的高墩大跨连续刚构桥——云南万拉木特大桥为例,运用MIDAS Civil建立连续刚构桥空间有限元模型,对其进行动力特性及罕遇地震作用下的非线性时程分析,并优化延性抗震设计。分析结果表明:桥梁振型以梁墩的横向振动为主,第1阶横向侧弯的自振周期为1.697s,全桥最大振幅出现在桥墩墩顶位置。在罕遇地震(50年超越概率为2%)作用下,中跨墩顶、底受力较大,均已进入屈服,但其弯矩均小于钢筋极限弯矩,桥梁满足"大震不倒"抗震性能目标。对塑性铰区进行优化,将墩底以上3m空心与实体分界位置处截面外层部分主筋弯折,形成最不利塑性铰区域;加强墩顶、底塑性铰区域横向约束钢筋布置,提高墩柱延性。     

一种基于县域城乡客运公交化改造的公交时刻表编制方法

为进一步协调县域城乡客运公交化改造与公交高效化运营之间的关系,合理确定城乡客运公交化改造后的公交时刻表至关重要。以县域城乡客运公交化改造为研究对象,提出了一种适合城乡客运公交化改造的公交时刻表编制方法。通过人工调查法获取客流信息,建立客流处理模型,获得最大断面客流量等信息。在此基础上,运用客流需求法建立数学模型,求得发车时间间隔并优化。最后,通过比较验证获得最终的公交时刻表。以池河至石泉客运班线公交化改造为例,改造后的公交时刻表极大地方便了沿线居民的出行,从而证明该时刻表具有较好的可行性。     

基于有效绿灯时间利用率的自适应控制策略研究

为了优化单点交叉口信号控制方案,使其适应各个进口道方向交通流动态变化,提高交叉口通行效率,根据交叉口进口道排队车辆数建立有效绿灯利用率模型,提出了一种交叉口自适应控制策略.有效绿灯时间利用率模型以交叉口通行能力最大为控制参数,实时优化确定出最佳相位放行方案以及最优相位切换方案,根据进口道排队车辆最大流向的排队车辆数和车辆到达预测确定相位放行绿灯时间.利用VISSIM交通仿真软件对该自适应控制策略仿真运行,与定时控制以及感应控制对比,评价分析不同车辆到达情况下交叉口通行情况.结果表明:该自适应控制策略能有效降低车均延误,提高交叉口服务水平.     

基于 M/G/1模型的停车场出口排队延误

通过对大型停车场高峰时段出口车辆行驶特性的调查研究,选取了车辆排队的出口车头时距以及出口服务时间两个指标。基于两个指标实测特性和 M/G/1排队模型的分析,计算了停车场出口理论平均排队时间。通过实测车辆平均排队时间,对理论模型计算的平均排队时间进行了修正。实例分析表明：排队时间修正模型能够准确地估计排队时间。提出了基于驾驶员容忍度的排队延误分级标准。     

快速公交发车间隔优化研究

合理的发车间隔对于快速公交车辆发挥其高效、经济和环保的优势具有重要的意义.首先以乘客出行成本和快速公交运营成本最小化为目标,考虑发车时间约束、车辆台数约束,建立了快速公交发车间隔优化模型.然后采用二进制编码,运用单点交叉和基本位变异的遗传算法求解该优化模型.最后以兰州市首条快速公交线路为例进行了实证研究,得到了不同时段下快速公交的发车间隔.实例研究结果表明,该发车间隔优化模型及遗传算法可行,对实现快速公交科学调度具有一定的参考意义.     

交叉迭代算法求解车辆-轨道非线性耦合方程的收敛性讨论

运用有限元法建立车辆-轨道非线性耦合系统动力分析模型,该模型将车辆-轨道系统以轮轨接触为界限分成车辆,轨道两个子系统并通过轮轨接触力的平衡和位移协调条件耦合在一起。通过交叉迭代算法分别求解车辆,轨道系统的运动方程,此时每一步都需要判断使之满足轮轨几何相容条件和相互作用力平衡条件,这样对时间步长的选取要求较高,但是如果时间步长超过某一限值,易于导致迭代失败。引入了修正因子对轮轨接触力进行修正,这不仅可以放宽对时间步长的选取,还能加速收敛,提高计算效率。为验证算法的正确性,不仅进行了算例验证,还给出了引入修正因子的交叉迭代算法求解车辆-轨道非线性耦合系统动力学方程的算例,算例中考虑了不同的时间步长和不同的修正因子对交叉迭代算法收敛速度的影响。计算结果表明引入修正因子的交叉迭代算法具有程序编制简单、收敛速度快、用时少、精度高的优点。     

大跨斜拉桥施工与成桥状态风致抖振响应分析

为研究大跨斜拉桥成桥与施工状态的风致抖振响应,分别采用时域和频域方法对一座典型大跨斜拉桥的成桥状态、施工最大双悬臂与最大单悬臂状态进行了数值计算.采用改进的谐波合成法模拟桥梁结构的随机脉动风场,基于有限元编程,实现了考虑自激力的斜拉桥抖振时域分析,使用多模态耦合分析方法进行斜拉桥的频域抖振分析.分析结果表明:在主梁设计基准风速下,成桥状态和施工状态的横桥向和扭转角抖振位移均较小,施工最大双悬臂中跨悬臂端点竖桥向抖振位移较大,在施工中应妥善处理;成桥与施工状态下的主塔塔顶抖振位移均较小,施工过程中可以不考虑主塔顶部的位移控制;基于合理模拟风场的时域计算方法,能够考虑各种非线性因素,能够较好地反映斜拉桥的抖振响应;不考虑气动导纳的频域计算会夸大斜拉桥的抖振响应,考虑Sears函数作为气动导纳的频域计算方法会低估斜拉桥的抖振响应.