基于非参数回归的快速路行程速度短期预测算法

基于北京市快速路上的检测器所采集的历史数据，经过数据筛选，剔除判别，小波滤噪平稳处理，聚类分析等过程，建立了交通状态演变系列的历史样本数据库。基于所构建的历史数据库，通过数值试验，确定了状态向量、距离匹配原则，K近邻值等参量，构建了一种基于K近邻的非参数回归短时交通预测模型，实现了对路段行程速度的短时预测。最后，利用随机选取的历史数据系列对预测模型的精度进行了检验。结果表明，预测算法的精度可以达到90％以上，可以很好地满足ITS应用系统对于交通预测数据的精度要求。     

城乡公交统筹发展策略研究

在阐述我国城乡公交统筹发展必要性的基础上,着重分析了目前城乡客运体系发展差距的症结所在,解析城乡公交统筹发展的内涵,以管理体制、政策法规、站场设施、市场建设4个方面的统筹为切入点,探讨了我国城乡公交统筹发展的具体策略。     

交通基础设施建设投资对国民经济拉动作用的定量分析

运用投入产出模型定量分析了公路交通基础设施建设投资对国民经济的拉动作用。拉动作用主要表现为公路建设投资所产生的直接、间接和诱导经济效益,其总和为公路建设投资的乘数效应,可分别用产出乘数、GDP乘数和就业乘数来测算。分析测算了我国近年来公路建设投资对国民经济的拉动作用。估算结果表明,(1)公路建筑业对其他部门的波及影响程度大于各部门的平均影响水平;(2)拉动作用在1998年最为显著,自1999年开始,公路投资拉动经济增长的百分比呈逐年上升的趋势。     

道路运输企业质量评价体系研究

文章分析了现有道路运输企业质量评价体系的不足,提出了新的道路评价方法,为将来的道路运输管理和规划提供了一个基础。     

英国的客运交通发展及启示

作者考察了英国客运交通的发展情况,文章结合我国及广西的实际情况,就如何吸收和借鉴英国有益的经验和做法,提出了加快道路运输发展的措施和建议。     

宜万铁路别岩槽隧道F3 断层突发性涌水治理

宜万铁路别岩槽隧道F3断层在初期支护完成后,由于受地表强降雨影响,突发大规模涌水,使初期支护严重变形。文章主要介绍了F3断层的涌水事故、应急预案,以及通过采取“径向注浆加固-初期支护加强-及时施作二次衬砌”等综合技术措施,有效地治理了F3断层涌水-变形段。     

The best of times and the worst of times: A new best–worst measure of attitudes toward public transport experiences

Attitudes play an important role in determining individual transit behaviour and the measurement of attitudes is relied on by public transit authorities’ world over. Given their role in behaviour and policy making, the accurate measurement of attitudes is of critical importance. Traditional satisfaction scales are prone to bias and on their own they are only a partial measure of attitudes. Given that satisfaction scales have been used to assist with large scale transport infrastructure investment decisions, to aid policy makers examining reactions to alternative policy changes and reform, and to measure the success of new initiatives, deriving robust satisfaction scales should be of critical importance. This paper introduces a dual version of best–worst scaling as an alternative measure of satisfaction. Best–worst scaling is free of the biases inherent in traditional response scales and is ideal for handling the comparative evaluation of large amount of attributes, particularly those which are inherently qualitative. The paper makes a further innovative contribution by proposing a model structure for the joint estimation of satisfaction and importance. Our model shows a better delineation between the attributes used to measure attitudes towards bus use and a more detailed understanding of the relationship between importance and satisfaction; enabling transport operators to better understand what counts most and assess their performance.     

Competition and public service obligations in European aviation markets

This paper analyzes the effect of universal service policies on the airline markets of five European Union countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom) in the period 2002–2010. Results show that airfare discount schemes for island residents raise demand and positively affect competition and the number of flights at the route level. These effects are evident in France and Italy, but are particularly marked in Spain. By contrast, public service obligations (PSOs) reduce competition on the protected routes, while their effect on the number of flights differs depending on national regulations. In Spain, routes protected with PSOs have greater flight frequencies than those on unprotected routes of similar characteristics, but in France, Italy and the UK the opposite result is found. The empirical model also finds that on routes with low-cost airlines market concentration is smaller and there is a larger number of flights. This result is relevant for the design of universal service policy, since in recent years low-cost airlines have entered a number of thin routes and have increased access to air transportation.     

Implementation of interactive transit information kiosks at New York City transit facilities: Analysis of user utilization and lessons learned

Transit Traveler Information Systems (TTIS) comprise a wide range of technologies that transit agencies use to provide reliable and timely transit-related information to customers. The touch-screen interactive information kiosk is an example of these emerging TTIS technologies. This paper examines the implementation of interactive touch-screen information kiosks, known as “On the Go!” Touch-Screen Travel Stations, at Metropolitan Transportation Authority-New York City Transit (MTA-NYCT) facilities in 2011. It analyzes data from passenger intercept surveys, from the kiosks’ built-in application usage logs and from field observations to understand actual passenger utilization of the kiosks and to assess the implications for transit agencies. The field observations also made it possible to obtain a profile of kiosk users, which sheds light on the concept of the “digital divide.” The findings, presented as lessons learned, can help agencies elsewhere develop guidelines and effective strategies for implementing similar interactive transit information systems.     

The effects of information bias and riding frequency on noise annoyance to a new railway extension in Hong Kong

We investigate how two non-acoustic factors, information bias and riding frequency, can affect the annoyance response of an urban population to noise created by a new railway line. The study shows that information bias is asymmetrical. Respondents receiving only information on positive measures taken by the authority to reduce noise emission are more tolerant of the noise impact, but those receiving only critical views tend to be more annoyed because they feel that not all measures to reduce noise have been employed. Additionally people who use the line frequently are more tolerant to the noise impact than those who do not. Information bias seems to have a temporary masking effect over riding frequency lasting for a few weeks after railway opening. This suggest that whilst free flow of information provided by the authority can help alleviate annoyance response, encouraging the people affected to make use of the new infrastructure may be useful to reduce public resistance and noise annoyance.