考虑出行者行为的多重网络拥堵风险传播模型

城市道路交通拥堵风险传播过程受拥堵预警信息、出行者行为特性及居民出行流量分布等诸多因素影响.本文提出包括道路子网、信息子网和出行子网的多重网络模型,应用改进的UAU-SIR(Unaware-Aware-Unaware-Susceptible-Infective-Recovered)模型,探讨多重网络预警信息下的城市道路...     

InSAR技术在采空区铁路选线中的应用

采空区沉降变形会直接影响铁路工程的建设及运营安全,需要对其变形进行勘察分析并评估影响.通过工程实例,应用InSAR(合成孔径雷达干涉测量)技术结合物探及钻探等手段,对某采空区影响进行综合评价.在收集既有地质资料及矿区资料的基础上,首先采用2007～2011年日本ALOS-PALSAR及2016～2018年欧空局Sent...     

浅析城市道路设计中路线方案的比选——以兰州市南环路(西客站段)联通工程方案为例

城市道路建设过程中,存在各种不确定因素。当道路沿线构筑物较多、周边环境较为复杂时,需进行多方案的比选,在兼顾经济指标与技术指标的前提下确定切实可行的路线方案。结合兰州市南环路(西客站段)联通工程方案,总结了城市建设中路线方案比选的几点思考,供道路专业人员参考。     

先进出行信息下事故对行程时间可靠性的影响

定义路径行程时间可靠性为在交通事故期间内平均路径行驶时间小于事故前路径出行时间乘以可接受拥堵水平的概率,由此导出路网行程时间可靠性.假定事故持续时间服从正态分布并将研究时域划分成相同的时段,在先进出行信息下,利用元胞传输模型进行路段流量加载,给出了每一个时段内路径行程时间的递推式,并在每一个时段内更新1次路径出行时间,出行者根据更新的出行时间运用Logit模型进行路径决策,最后基于Monte-Carlo法模拟求解路网行程时间可靠性.算例结果表明,行程时间可靠性随事故持续时间和方差及需求的增加而减小;可靠性随可接受拥堵水平的增加而增加;在拥堵网络中,包含事故路段的OD间需求越高,可靠性越低.     

基于模糊相似度的群决策方案排序

为解决排序方案多属性特征、决策者对事物认识的局限性以及决策群体中各个体间的矛盾性导致的决策方案排序困难的问题,引入模糊相似度概念,以测度决策专家的偏好差异,用有序加权平均算子集结群体意见,通过与虚拟正、负理想方案比较,实现决策方案排序,并介绍了决策实施步骤.     

柴油公交车燃用不同替代燃料的排放特性

采用OBS-2200车载排放检测系统,分析了柴油公交车实际道路工况的气态排放特性.使用的燃料分别为纯柴油、天然气制油(GTL)与生物柴油,道路工况主要包括市区主干道、次干道和快速路.分析结果表明:公交车燃用各类燃料的CO、HC、NOx和CO2的道路瞬时质量排放率均与瞬态车速变化有良好的跟随特性.公交车燃用各种替代燃料的气态污染物质量排放率随车速增加总体呈上升趋势,其中HC和CO2的质量排放率随车速增大,基本呈线性增加趋势,CO和NOx的质量排放率在中低车速区域随车速上升呈现增加趋势,而在高车速区域有所降低.与主干道、次干道相比,公交车在快速路上燃用各种燃料的气态污染物的排放因子都是最低的.与纯柴油相比,不论是质量排放率还是排放因子,生物柴油和GTL柴油的CO和HC排放都有所下降,且生物柴油的降幅更大一些.从全路况范围来看,纯生物柴油的CO和HC排放最低,纯生物柴油的NOx排放要高于柴油.全路况下,纯天然气制油、体积比为20％天然气制油、体积比为20％生物柴油的CO2排放要低于纯柴油,但纯生物柴油的CO2排放要高一些.     

轨道交通乘客个性化出行路径规划算法

随着城市轨道交通网络的不断完善,可供乘客选择的轨道交通出行路径日益 增加,乘客出行路径决策愈加复杂.本文在分析轨道交通服务水平变量对不同属性乘客出 行路径选择行为影响的基础上,提出轨道交通乘客个性化出行路径规划算法.首先,基于 非集计理论构建针对不同类别乘客的路径选择模型,该模型综合考虑乘车时间、换乘时 间、换乘次数、车内拥挤度及个人属性等因素对乘客路径选择行为的影响.其次,基于不同 类别乘客的路径选择行为差异,构建考虑车内拥挤度变化的乘客个性化出行路径动态规 划算法,为不同属性乘客规划广义出行时间最小的路径.最后,基于广州地铁数据对算法 进行验证.结果表明,该算法针对乘客个人属性规划的最优出行路径,更加贴合乘客的出 行心理.     

Bike route choice modeling using GPS data without choice sets of paths

Concerned by the nuisances of motorized travel on urban life, policy makers are faced with the challenge of making cycling a more attractive alternative for everyday transportation. Route choice models can help achieve this objective by gaining insights into the trade-offs cyclists make when choosing their routes and by allowing the effect of infrastructure improvements to be analyzed. We estimate a link-based bike route choice model from a sample of GPS observations in the city of Eugene on a network comprising over 40,000 links. The so-called recursive logit (RL) model (Fosgerau et al., 2013) does not require to sample any choice set of paths. We show the advantages of this approach in the context of prediction by focusing on two applications of the model: link flows and accessibility measures. Compared to the path-based approach which requires to generate choice sets, the RL model proves to make significant gains in computational time and to avoid paradoxical accessibility measure results discussed in previous works, e.g. Nassir et al. (2014).     

武汉市过长江交通流量特征分析

武汉市过长江交通是武汉市最主要的交通流向之一。根据流量观测数据分析长江交通流量特征,表明武汉市区过长江交通饱和,交通需求总量大,出行目的种类多。过长江交通没有明显、固定的高峰日和高峰小时,除通勤交通外。还有公务等大量非通勤交通。其中武昌与汉口之间交通是主流向,需要适当新增通道缓解过江难问题。     

Key criteria influencing the choice of Arctic shipping: a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model

As Arctic sea ice shrinks due to global warming, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP) offer a substantial reduction in shipping distance between Asia and the European and North American continents, respectively, when compared to conventional routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. However, Arctic shipping routes have many problems associated with their use. The main objective of this paper is to identify the key criteria that influence the decisions of shipping operators with respect to using Arctic shipping routes. A multi-criteria decision-making methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank four potential categories of criteria (‘economic’, ‘technical’, ‘political’ and ‘safety’ factors) and their sub-criteria.

The results of the analysis suggest that, on aggregate, ‘economic’ is the most important category of influential factors, followed by ‘safety’, ‘technical’ and ‘political’ factors. The paper concludes, however, that the most influential specific sub-criteria relate to risks that lie mainly within the ‘safety’ and ‘political’ domains and that, especially in combination, these overwhelm the importance which is attached to ‘economic’ factors such as reduced fuel use. Finally, the implications of these findings for the future development of Arctic shipping are addressed at a strategic level.