Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

Effect of Seismic Parameters on the Safety Factor for an Underground Cavern北大核心CSCD

In order to quantitatively evaluate the safety of the surrounding rock of an underground cavern under seis-mic load, a comprehensive evaluation method for the stability of surrounding rock is proposed based on the general safety factor and point safety factor. A calculation method for the general safety factor of a cavern based on the prin-ciple of shear strength reduction of a rock mass is given, the run-through of the plastic zone between the main power-house and main transformer room is presented as a critical criterion for the overall instability of the cavern, and the general safety factor is obtained by searching for the reduction coefficient. A point safety factor calculation method based on the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion is given. The influence of different seismic input parameters on the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions are studied based on an underground power-house cavern of a hydropower station in Southwest China. The results show that the quantitative evaluation method for the stability of the surrounding rock based on the safety factor is feasible and can reflect the general safety de-gree and local safety degree of different positions of the cavern for different working conditions. It is found that the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions decrease with an increase of the ampli-tude and duration of a seismic wave while they increase with an increase of the incident angle; additionally, the low frequency of a seismic wave has a great influence on the cavern while the high frequency has little effect. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

轴对称解对隧道衬砌水压力计算的适用性研究

文章根据渗流理论推导了隧道衬砌水压力的轴对称解,并利用数值分析方法研究了轴对称解对不同形状隧道断面与浅埋隧道的适用性.研究结果表明:轴对称解适用于非圆形隧道断面衬砌水压力的估算;隧道断面形状对衬砌水压力折减系数的影响较小,可以忽略不计,其影响大小主要由衬砌与围岩的渗透系数比值决定.对于浅埋低水头隧道,用轴对称解计算的毛洞流量Qm与数值解比较,其误差较大,最大误差为36.5％;但用来计算衬砌水压力p1以及衬砌后水流量Q1时,误差相对较小,最大误差为6.3％,特别是利用轴对称解得出的衬砌水压力值与利用数值解得出的衬砌水压力特征值最大误差仅为3.4％.     

隆林新洲养护站边坡稳定性分析

文章利用SLOPE／W模块,基于确定值方法和可靠度理论的极限平衡法．对隆林新洲养护站边坡在不采取支挡措施和采用锚索抗滑桩支挡措施情况下,如何保持边坡稳定性进行了对比分析。     

发射型钹式换能器的研究

为分析低频钹式换能器的发射电压响应、辐射声功率、发射效率等性能参数,通过ANSYS有限元软件建立了发射换能器的轴对称模型,设计了不同结构参数的共振频率为2kHz左右发射型钹式换能器,从结构阻尼入手,通过仿真分析计算,得到换能器的带宽、品质因数等,比较了不同结构参数的换能器的各项性能,绘制了不同结构参数的发射电压响应曲线,为分析设计钹式换能器提供了理论依据。     

船舶绿色电源PEMFC及其性能影响因素分析

能源与环境制约了各国经济的持续发展,绿色船舶成为当前船舶行业的发展趋势,燃料电池作为绿色电源在船舶行业具有广阔的应用前景。燃料电池是一种多输入的电化学反应装置,影响因素较多。该文在验证了质子交换膜燃料电池(Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells,PEMFC)稳态建模正确性的基础上,通过稳态建模,利用MATLAB对影响PEMFC性能的各因素进行了分析讨论,并给出了各影响因素的影响大小。最后,在PEMFC的控制和设计上提出了一些指导性的建议。     

桩基建模方法对自升式钻井平台动力响应的影响

随着海洋油气开采作业水深的不断增加,海洋平台固有频率随之降低,易与相同频率成分的波浪产生共振,因此对平台动力响应特性研究是非常有必要的,而桩基模型在平台动力响应分析中发挥着关键作用。以某400英尺自升式钻井平台研究对象,基于等效建模的思想,分别建立了固支桩基、铰接桩基、线性弹簧桩基及非线性弹簧桩基四种有限元模型,并对其进行静力分析、模态分析及瞬态动力学分析,通过对比得到的振动频率、动力放大因子及波流惯性力,得出弹簧桩基模型在平台动力响应分析中的有效性及合理性结论。     

深海耐压舱室寿命估算

耐压舱室在深海中下潜一定深度和收回过程中,受到的水压可以简化为底周期循环应力。在该循环应力作用下,根据断裂力学理论和结构损伤-安全设计原理,以临界裂纹尺寸的设计方法结合具体工程应用案例计算设备寿命,得出在一定初始裂纹深度和长度下设备的理论使用次数。采用计算机程序实现迭代计算。此应用案例在疲劳的可靠性计算中具有一定的工程指导意义。     

频繁爆破下隧道内振动传播的数值研究

为揭示频繁爆破下隧道内振动传播衰减规律,文章以蒙华铁路段家坪隧道为工程背景,利用LS-DY NA建立了三维隧道模型,模拟分析了多次爆破下隧道内近区和中远区的振动传播规律。结果表明,质点垂向峰值振速随距离和爆破次数的增大而减小,少数振速有增大的现象;近区振动衰减较快,中远区振动衰减比近区缓慢;中远区a值比近区至少小12.5%,但整体上二者的a值随爆破作用次数的增加呈缓慢上升趋势;系数K随爆破作用次数的增加而降低,近区K值降低速率普遍大于中远区,且近区K值比中远区至少大29.1%;频繁爆破下,中远区比近区较符合萨道夫斯基经验公式。     

Fitness-for-purpose assessment of cracked offshore wind turbine monopile

In this paper, the procedure for flaw acceptability assessment is examined through a case study of a semi-elliptical surface crack in an offshore monopile as it grows till it forms a through thickness crack. Using the procedure prescribed in an industrial standard (BS 7910), the fracture ratio, K_r is shown to increase monotonically with increasing crack depth. The load ratio, L_r, is initially insensitive to the crack depth. However, there is a rapid increase in L_r when the crack depth to thickness ratio exceeds 80%. L_r values obtained from detailed 3D FE limit analysis using elastic-perfectly-plastic material behaviour do not exhibit the asymptotic behaviour predicted by BS 7910 as the flaw transitions from deep crack to through-thickness crack. Furthermore, K_r predicted by BS 7910 is shown to be an over-estimation for the typical dimensions of offshore monopiles. The findings suggest that a structure with a deep flaw may be identified as unacceptable based on BS 7910 when it may still possess a non-trivial amount of structural residual life. This is a concern for monopiles where crack growth as a large flaw forms a significant part of the total life.