A fuzzy stochastic approach to the multicriteria selection of an aircraft for regional chartering

This article deals with the problem of decision support for the selection of an aircraft. This is a problem faced by an airline company that is investing in regional charter flights in Brazil. The company belongs to an economic group whose core business is logistics. The problem has eight alternatives to be evaluated under 11 different criteria, whose measurements can be exact, stochastic, or fuzzy. The technique chosen for analyzing and then finding a solution to the problem is the multicriteria decision aiding method named NAIADE (Novel Approach to Imprecise Assessment and Decision Environments). The method used allows tackling the problems by working with quantitative as well as qualitative criteria under uncertainty and imprecision. Another considerable advantage of NAIADE over other multicriteria methods relies in its characteristics of not requiring a prior definition of the weights by the decision maker. As a conclusion, it can be said that the use of NAIADE provided for consistent results to that aircraft selection problem. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The speed control effect of highway tunnel sidewall markings based on color and temporal frequency

The low‐luminance monotonous environment in the middle section of highway tunnels offers few reference points and is prone to cause severe visual illusion. Thus, drivers tend to underestimate their driving speed, which can induce speeding behaviors that result in rear‐end collisions. Therefore, discovering low‐cost methods of traffic engineering that reduce this visual illusion and ensure a steady driving speed is an important challenge for current highway tunnel operations. This study analyzes the effects of sidewall markings in typical highway tunnels, specifically observing how their colors and temporal frequencies affect the driver's speed perception in a low‐luminance condition. A three‐dimensional model of the middle section of highway tunnels was built in a driving simulator. Psychophysical tests of speed perception were carried out by the method of limits. The precision of the simulation model was then checked by comparing the results to field test data. The simulation tests studied the stimulus of subjectively equal speed and reaction time in relation to sidewall markings in different colors (red–white combined, yellow–white combined, and blue–white combined). Furthermore, based on the optimal color, the effects of sidewall marking with different temporal frequencies (0.4, 0.8, 1.2, 2, 4, 8, 12, 16, and 32 Hz) on the speed perception of drivers were also analyzed. The test results reveal that the color and temporal frequency of sidewall marking have a significant impact on the driver's stimulus of subjectively equal speed and reaction time. The subjects have the highest speed overestimation and an easy speed judgment with the red–white combined sidewall marking. Within the temporal frequency range of 4.45–7.01 Hz, the subjects have a certain degree of speed overestimation (less than 20%), and the speed perception is sensitive to the temporal frequency changes. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modification of the Highway Capacity Manual two‐lane highway analysis procedure for Spanish conditions

The US Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) methodology is used in Spain to evaluate traffic operation and quality of service. The effect of passing manoeuvre on two‐lane highway operational performance is considered through adjustment factors to average travel speeds and percent time spent following. The procedure is largely based on simulations in TWOPAS and passing behaviours observed during US calibrations in the 1970s. It is not clear whether US driving behaviour and vehicles' performance are comparable with Spanish conditions. The objective of this research is to adapt the HCM 2010 methodology to Spanish driver behaviour, for base conditions (i.e. no passing restrictions). To do so, TWOPAS was calibrated and validated based on current Spanish passing field data. The calibration used a genetic algorithm. The case study included an ideal two‐lane highway with varying directional traffic flow rate, directional split and percentage of trucks. The updated methodology for base conditions is simpler than the current HCM 2010 and does not rely on interpolation from tables. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hybrid model for prediction of bus arrival times at next station

Effective prediction of bus arrival times is important to advanced traveler information systems (ATIS). Here a hybrid model, based on support vector machine (SVM) and Kalman filtering technique, is presented to predict bus arrival times. In the model, the SVM model predicts the baseline travel times on the basic of historical trips occurring data at given time‐of‐day, weather conditions, route segment, the travel times on the current segment, and the latest travel times on the predicted segment; the Kalman filtering‐based dynamic algorithm uses the latest bus arrival information, together with estimated baseline travel times, to predict arrival times at the next point. The predicted bus arrival times are examined by data of bus no. 7 in a satellite town of Dalian in China. Results show that the hybrid model proposed in this paper is feasible and applicable in bus arrival time forecasting area, and generally provides better performance than artificial neural network (ANN)–based methods. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

快速公交系统站台停靠时间模型研究

快速公交系统停靠站台停车延误是影响快速公交运行车速的关键因素之一,因此构建快速公交系统站台停靠时间模型是提升快速公交服务水平的基础理论研究。本文选取盐城BRT-1号线的起始站、中途站、客流离散站等三类站点为研究对象,综合运用数理统计法与数据挖掘法,构建快速公交系统站台停靠时间模型,并对该模型的合理性进行了检验。研究表明:盐城市BRT-1号线三类站台的快速公交车辆停靠时间与上下车乘客人数呈线性关系,即快速公交车辆停靠时间与上下车乘客人数的检验参数R2均大于0.8。     

埋地输油管道在线大修安全开挖距离分析

对于埋地管道,大修时保证安全开挖是非常重要的。综合考虑管道挖开修复段的长度、沿管线分布的土壤特性、输送油品的物性、管道压力以及重埋后受力情况等相关因素,建立了管道挖开情况下的力学模型。根据模型的特点,计算出开挖时管道的最大综合应力,从而确定管道开挖的安全长度。     

An exploratory analysis of joint-activity participation characteristics using the American time use survey

This paper presents a detailed exploratory analysis of joint activity participation characteristics using the American Time Use Survey (ATUS). As a very large nationwide survey that explicitly elicited information on both household and non-household companions for each activity episode, the ATUS is ideally suited for this analysis. Several intuitive and interesting results are obtained. Joint episodes are found to be of longer durations, significantly likely to take place at the residence of other people, and often confined to certain time periods of the weekday. In addition, important differences in these characteristics are also observed based on activity purpose, companion type, and the day of the week. These findings are intended to provide the basis for the justification of detailed collection of joint activity–travel participation information in household activity–travel surveys, and also as a stimulant for further empirical analysis and modeling of joint activity participation behavior.

Urban form,travel time,and cost relationships with tour complexity and mode choice

The primary purpose of this study was to investigate how relative associations between travel time, costs, and land use patterns where people live and work impact modal choice and trip chaining patterns in the Central Puget Sound (Seattle) region. By using a tour-based modeling framework and highly detailed land use and travel data, this study attempts to add detail on the specific land use changes necessary to address different types of travel, and to develop a comparative framework by which the relative impact of travel time and urban form changes can be assessed. A discrete choice modeling framework adjusted for demographic factors and assessed the relative effect of travel time, costs, and urban form on mode choice and trip chaining characteristics for the three tour types. The tour based modeling approach increased the ability to understand the relative contribution of urban form, time, and costs in explaining mode choice and tour complexity for home and work related travel. Urban form at residential and employment locations, and travel time and cost were significant predictors of travel choice. Travel time was the strongest predictor of mode choice while urban form the strongest predictor of the number of stops within a tour. Results show that reductions in highway travel time are associated with less transit use and walking. Land use patterns where respondents work predicted mode choice for mid day and journey to work travel.

隧道开挖中的应力旋转和裂隙塑性变形问题研究

通过对隧道开挖过程进行三维数值模拟,分析了隧道开挖过程中主应力方向的旋转变化,研究了主应力旋转与隧道裂隙塑性变形的关系,验证了"考虑应力主轴旋转的广义塑性原理"的正确性,并将数值模拟结果和相关试验成果进行了对比,得出了一致性的结论。研究结果表明,应力旋转基本在隧道开挖前后10 m左右的距离内完成,隧道开挖过程中的应力旋转可以引起裂隙塑性变形的突变,且对竖向和斜向裂隙的影响较大;可以根据应力旋转的变化规律合理地选择支护时机,依据应力旋转对裂隙的影响对隧道的重点部位进行超前加固。     

Real time queue length estimation for signalized intersections using travel times from mobile sensors

We study how to estimate real time queue lengths at signalized intersections using intersection travel times collected from mobile traffic sensors. The estimation is based on the observation that critical pattern changes of intersection travel times or delays, such as the discontinuities (i.e., sudden and dramatic increases in travel times) and non-smoothness (i.e., changes of slopes of travel times), indicate signal timing or queue length changes. By detecting these critical points in intersection travel times or delays, the real time queue length can be re-constructed. We first introduce the concept of Queue Rear No-delay Arrival Time which is related to the non-smoothness of queuing delay patterns and queue length changes. We then show how measured intersection travel times from mobile sensors can be processed to generate sample vehicle queuing delays. Under the uniform arrival assumption, the queuing delays reduce linearly within a cycle. The delay pattern can be estimated by a linear fitting method using sample queuing delays. Queue Rear No-delay Arrival Time can then be obtained from the delay pattern, and be used to estimate the maximum and minimum queue lengths of a cycle, based on which the real-time queue length curve can also be constructed. The model and algorithm are tested in a field experiment and in simulation.