Cognitive cost in route choice with real-time information: An exploratory analysis

Real-time traffic information is increasingly available to support route choice decisions by reducing the travel time uncertainty. However it is likely that a traveler cannot assess all available information on all alternative routes due to time constraints and limited cognitive capacity. This paper presents a model that is consistent with a general network topology and can potentially be estimated based on revealed preference data. It explicitly takes into account the information acquisition and the subsequent path choice. The decision to acquire information is assumed to be based on the cognitive cost involved in the search and the expected benefit defined as the expected increase in utility after the search. A latent class model is proposed, where the decision to search or not to search and the depth of the search are latent and only the final path choices are observed. A synthetic data set is used for the purpose of validation and ease of illustration. The data are generated from the postulated cognitive-cost model, and estimation results show that the true values of the parameters can be recovered with enough variability in the data. Two other models with simplifying assumptions of no information and full information are also estimated with the same set of data with significantly biased path choice utility parameters. Prediction results show that a smaller cognitive cost encourages information search on risky and fast routes and thus higher shares on those routes. As a result, the expected average travel time decreases and the variability increases. The no-information and full-information models are extreme cases of the more general cognitive-cost model in some cases, but not generally so, and thus the increasing ease of information acquisition does not necessarily warrant a full-information model.     

基于随机粒子仿真的海上搜寻区域确定

为提高海上搜救的成功率,最大限度地减少生命和财产损失,需要快速确定包含搜寻目标漂移后的最小搜寻区域.在海洋环境数值预报模式下,考虑了不同的遇险推测场景条件,采用随机粒子仿真法确定了目标初始概率分布,恰当地描述了海洋环境数据以及风压系数中的不确定性因素对目标漂移的影响,建立了搜寻目标整体漂移模型.采用该整体漂移模型对落水人员漂移区域进行了数值预测仿真.仿真结果表明:随机粒子仿真法能准确预测搜寻区域,较好地利用现有的环境数据库信息,实时计算搜寻区域的包含率,生成指定时刻的概率分布图,相比于采用传统解析方法预测搜寻区域约缩小1/2.     

A tabu search algorithm to solve the integrated planning of container on an inter-terminal network connected with a hinterland rail network

Transport demand for containers has been increasing for decades, which places pressure on road transport. As a result, rail transport is stimulated to provide better intermodal freight transport services. This paper investigates mathematical models for the planning of container movements in a port area, integrating the inter-terminal transport of containers (ITT, within the port area) with the rail freight formation and transport process (towards the hinterland). An integer linear programming model is used to formulate the container transport across operations at container terminals, the network interconnecting them, railway yards and the railway networks towards the hinterland. A tabu search algorithm is proposed to solve the problem. The practical applicability of the algorithm is tested in a realistic infrastructure case and different demand scenarios. Our results show the degree by which internal (ITT) and external (hinterland) transport processes interact, and the potential for improvement of overall operations when the integrated optimization proposed is used. Instead, if the planning of containers in the ITT system is optimized as a stand-alone problem, the railway terminals may suffer from longer delay times or additional train cancellations. When planning the transport of 4060 TEU containers within one day, the benefits of the ITT planning without considering railway operations account for 17% ITT cost reduction but 93% railway operational cost growth, while the benefits of integrating ITT and railway account for a reduction of 20% in ITT cost and 44% in railway operational costs.     

考虑车辆随机到站时间的动态需求响应型接驳公交线路优化

车辆到站时间的不准时性严重影响着需求响应型公交的服务水平和乘客选择公共交通的出行意愿，因此，本文对考虑车辆随机到站时间的动态需求响应型接驳公交线路优化问题进行研究。以运营商成本、乘客乘车时间成本、乘客等待时间成本组成的系统总成本最小为目标建立数学模型，通过优化车辆路径寻求系统总成本最优的需求响应型接驳公交服务方案，其创新之处在于，在服务过程中允许乘客提交实时出行需求；定义车辆到站时间服从已知分布以描述其随机性。提出一种遗传算法和邻域搜索相结合的启发式算法对模型进行求解，该算法融合了遗传算法的全局搜索优势和邻域搜索的局部搜索能力，通过算例测试分析对本文算法的有效性及先进性进行验证。最后，基于西安市延平门地铁站设计数值实验，结果表明，考虑车辆随机到站时间可以在一定程度上减少乘客时间成本和系统总成本。     

The fleet size and mix dial-a-ride problem with reconfigurable vehicle capacity

This paper introduces a fleet size and mix dial-a-ride problem with multiple passenger types and a heterogeneous fleet of reconfigurable vehicles. In this new variant of the dial-a-ride problem, en-route modifications of the vehicle’s inner configuration are allowed. The main consequence is that the vehicle capacity is defined by a set of configurations and the choice of vehicle configuration is associated with binary decision variables.The problem is modeled as a mixed-integer program derived from the model of the heterogeneous dial-a-ride problem. Vehicle reconfiguration is a lever to efficiently reduce transportation costs, but the number of passengers and vehicle fleet setting make this problem intractable for exact solution methods. A large neighborhood search metaheuristic combined with a set covering component with a reactive mechanism to automatically adjust its parameters is therefore proposed. The resulting framework is evaluated against benchmarks from the literature, used for similar routing problems. It is also applied to a real case, in the context of the transportation of disabled children from their home to medical centers in the city of Lyon, France.     

Design and development of a hybrid ant colony-variable neighbourhood search algorithm for a multi-depot green vehicle routing problem

The traditional distribution planning problem in a supply chain has often been studied mainly with a focus on economic benefits. The growing concern about the effects of anthropogenic pollutions has forced researchers and supply chain practitioners to address the socio-environmental concerns. This research study focuses on incorporating the environmental impact on route design problem. In this work, the aim is to integrate both the objectives, namely economic cost and emission cost reduction for a capacitated multi-depot green vehicle routing problem. The proposed models are a significant contribution to the field of research in green vehicle routing problem at the operational level. The formulated integer linear programming model is solved for a set of small scale instances using LINGO solver. A computationally efficient Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) based meta-heuristic is developed for solving both small scale and large scale problem instances in reasonable amount of time. For solving large scale instances, the performance of the proposed ACO based meta-heuristic is improved by integrating it with a variable neighbourhood search.     

Optimality versus run time for isolated signalized intersections

Simulation-based optimization of traffic signal timing has become pervasive and popular, in the field of traffic engineering. When the underlying simulation model is well-trusted and/or well-calibrated, it is only natural that typical engineers would want their signal timing optimized using the judgment of that same model. As such, it becomes important that the heuristic search methods typically used by these optimizations are capable of locating global optimum solutions, for a wide range of signal systems. However off-line and real-time solutions alike offer just a subset of the available search methods. The result is that many optimizations are likely converging prematurely on mediocre solutions. In response, this paper compares several search methods from the literature, in terms of both optimality (i.e., solution quality) and computer run times. Simulated annealing and genetic algorithm methods were equally effective in achieving near-global optimum solutions. Two selection methods (roulette wheel and tournament), commonly used within genetic algorithms, exhibited similar effectiveness. Tabu searching did not provide significant benefits. Trajectories of optimality versus run time (OVERT) were similar for each method, except some methods aborted early along the same trajectory. Hill-climbing searches always aborted early, even with a large number of step-sizes. Other methods only aborted early when applied with ineffective parameter settings (e.g. mutation rate, annealing schedule). These findings imply (1) today’s products encourage a sub-optimal “one size fits all” approach, (2) heuristic search methods and parameters should be carefully selected based on the system being optimized, (3) weaker searches abort early along the OVERT curve, and (4) improper choice of methods and/or parameters can reduce optimization benefits by 22–33%.     

Network sensor health problem

Many existing studies on the sensor health problem determine an individual sensor’s health status based on the statistical characteristics of collected data by the sensor. In this research, we study the sensor health problem at the network level, which is referred to as the network sensor health problem. First, based on the conservation principle of daily flows in a network, we separate all links into base links and non-base links, such that the flows on the latter can be calculated from those on the former. In reality, the network flow conservation principle can be violated due to the existence of unhealthy sensors. Then we define the least inconsistent base set of links as those that minimize the sum of squares of the differences between observed and calculated flows on non-base links. But such least inconsistent base sets may not be unique in a general road network. Finally we define the health index of an individual sensor as the frequency that it appears in all of the least inconsistent base sets. Intuitively, a lower health index suggests that the corresponding sensor is more likely to be unhealthy. We present the brute force method to find all least inconsistent base sets and calculate the health indices. We also propose a greedy search algorithm to calculate the approximate health indices more efficiently. We solve the network sensor health problem for a real-world example with 16 nodes and 30 links, among which 18 links are monitored with loop detectors. Using daily traffic count data from the Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS) database, we use both the brute-force and greedy search methods to calculate the health indices for all the sensors. We find that all the four sensors flagged as unhealthy (high value) by PeMS have the lowest health indices. This confirms that a sensor with a lower health index is more likely to be unhealthy. Therefore, we can use such health indices to determine the relative reliability of different sensors’ data and prioritize the maintenance of sensors.     

Metaheuristics for efficient aircraft scheduling and re-routing at busy terminal control areas

Intelligent decision support systems for the real-time management of landing and take-off operations can be very effective in helping air traffic controllers to limit airport congestion at busy terminal control areas. The key optimization problem to be solved regards the assignment of airport resources to take-off and landing aircraft and the aircraft sequencing on them. The problem can be formulated as a mixed integer linear program. However, since this problem is strongly NP-hard, heuristic algorithms are typically adopted in practice to compute good quality solutions in a short computation time. This paper presents a number of algorithmic improvements implemented in the AGLIBRARY solver (a state-of-the-art optimization solver to deal with complex routing and scheduling problems) in order to improve the possibility of finding good quality solutions quickly. The proposed framework starts from a good initial solution for the aircraft scheduling problem with fixed routes (given the resources to be traversed by each aircraft), computed via a truncated branch-and-bound algorithm. A metaheuristic is then applied to improve the solution by re-routing some aircraft in the terminal control area. New metaheuristics, based on variable neighbourhood search, tabu search and hybrid schemes, are introduced. Computational experiments are performed on an Italian terminal control area under various types of disturbances, including multiple aircraft delays and a temporarily disrupted runway. The metaheuristics achieve solutions of remarkable quality, within a small computation time, compared with a commercial solver and with the previous versions of AGLIBRARY.     

Preference-based evolutionary algorithm for airport surface operations

In addition to time efficiency, minimisation of fuel consumption and related emissions has started to be considered by research on optimisation of airport surface operations as more airports face severe congestion and tightening environmental regulations. Objectives are related to economic cost which can be used as preferences to search for a region of cost efficient and Pareto optimal solutions. A multi-objective evolutionary optimisation framework with preferences is proposed in this paper to solve a complex optimisation problem integrating runway scheduling and airport ground movement problem. The evolutionary search algorithm uses modified crowding distance in the replacement procedure to take into account cost of delay and fuel price. Furthermore, uncertainty inherent in prices is reflected by expressing preferences as an interval. Preference information is used to control the extent of region of interest, which has a beneficial effect on algorithm performance. As a result, the search algorithm can achieve faster convergence and potentially better solutions. A filtering procedure is further proposed to select an evenly distributed subset of Pareto optimal solutions in order to reduce its size and help the decision maker. The computational results with data from major international hub airports show the efficiency of the proposed approach.