Forecasting Travel Demand with Alternatively Structured Models of Trip Frequency

Abstract

This paper develops alternatively structured trip frequency/generation models, and investigates their forecast performance. The first model presented is the simple linear model with a discussion of its theoretical shortcomings. Models that address, in a progressive fashion, the underlying shortcomings of the linear model are then presented. These models are namely the truncated normal model, the Poisson model, the negative binomial model, and an ordered logit model. The modeling unit employed in the study is the individual. The models are assessed by how closely they are able to replicate trips produced by each individual in the dataset, and by each traffic zone. This assessment of performance in prediction is conducted on an estimation dataset collected in the Toronto Region in 1986, and on an independent dataset collected in the same geographic region, 10 years later, in 1996. The results show that, notwithstanding the simplicity of the simple linear model and its lack of an explicit underlying travel behavioral theory, it predicts travel in the base and forecast years with less error compared to any of the more complex models.     

球柱组合壳耐压船体结构静水压力试验研究

球柱组合壳结构在船舶与海洋工程领域应用广泛,为考察球柱组合壳结构的力学性能,设计制作了球柱组合壳模型进行静水压力试验,测量其应力。通过对球柱组合壳结构的应力分布规律的研究,得到了球柱组合壳结构的应力与外压力的关系,并验证了球柱组合壳结构的连接处存在应力集中现象,利用试验数据得到了应力集中系数为1.4。     

航测虚拟现实中三维模型的设计

研究目的:研究在航测虚拟现实中三维模型的设计思路,以及具体的三维房屋模型、道路模型的设计方法,从而达到三维模型在视觉上的逼真重建、显示的效果。研究方法:将需要建模的诸如房屋、道路等复杂的对象分解成多个单独的"面对象",按照实际坐标进行建模,并对每一个面进行贴面,以达到真三维的效果。研究结果:对每一个真实的对象进行三维建模技术上是可行的,但是会对计算机硬件的要求非常高,实际建模时可以综合考虑。研究结论:航测虚拟现实技术,提供三维建模与可视化、数据集成管理和分析应用等功能,能逼真呈现线路所经区域的地形环境。借助这一技术,可以给决策者、设计师以直观的三维立体印象,为道路设计方案评审及优化设计提供决策的依据。可应用在铁(公)路选线、道路空间几何线形评价、行车安全评估、环境影响评估和桥、隧、站位选择等方面。     

A sequential approach to exploiting the combined strengths of SP and RP data: Application to freight shipper choice

The possibility of and procedure for pooling RP and SP data have been discussed in recent research work. In that literature, the RP data has been viewed as the yardstick against which the SP data must be compared. In this paper we take a fresh look at the two data types. Based on the peculiar strengths and weaknesses of each we propose a new, sequential approach to exploiting the strengths and avoiding the weaknesses of each data source. This approach is based on the premise that SP data, characterized by a well-conditioned design matrix and a less constrained decision environment than the real world, is able to capture respondents' tradeoffs more robustly than is possible in RP data. (This, in turn, results in more robust estimates of share changes due to changes in independent variables.) The RP data, however, represent the current market situation better than the SP data, hence should be used to establish the aggregate equilibrium level represented by the final model. The approachfixes the RP parameters for independent variables at the estimated SP parameters but uses the RP data to establish alternative-specific constants. Simultaneously, the RP data are rescaled to correct for error-in-variables problems in the RP design matrixvis-à- vis the SP design matrix. All specifications tested are Multinomial Logit (MNL) models.The approach is tested with freight shippers' choice of carrier in three major North American cities. It is shown that the proposed sequential approach to using SP and RP data has the same or better predictive power as the model calibrated solely on the RP data (which is the best possible model for that data, in terms of goodness-of-fit figures of merit), when measured in terms of Pearson's Chi-squared ratio and the percent correctly predicted statistic. The sequential approach is also shown to produce predictions with lower error than produced by the more usual method of pooling the RP and SP data.     

国内外环境影响评价模型软件发展现状研究

调查了近几十年来国内外大量的常用环境影响评价模型软件及实践案例的发展及应用状况,通过分析各种环评模型软件的功能、特点和应用领域,尝试对现有的环境影响评价模型软件进行系统分类,并总结了最新环评模型软件的技术特点和发展方向。     

Bayesian statistical data assimilation for ecosystem models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

This study considers advanced statistical approaches for sequential data assimilation. These are explored in the context of nowcasting and forecasting using nonlinear differential equation based marine ecosystem models assimilating sparse and noisy non-Gaussian multivariate observations. The statistical framework uses a state space model with the goal of estimating the time evolving probability distribution of the ecosystem state. Assimilation of observations relies on stochastic dynamic prediction and Bayesian principles. In this study, a new sequential data assimilation approach is introduced based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The ecosystem state is represented by an ensemble, or sample, from which distributional properties, or summary statistical measures, can be derived. The Metropolis-Hastings based MCMC approach is compared and contrasted with two other sequential data assimilation approaches: sequential importance resampling, and the (approximate) ensemble Kalman filter (including computational comparisons). A simple illustrative application is provided based on a 0-D nonlinear plankton ecosystem model with multivariate non-Gaussian observations of the ecosystem state from a coastal ocean observatory. The MCMC approach is shown to be straightforward to implement and to effectively characterize the non-Gaussian ecosystem state in both nowcast and forecast experiments. Results are reported which illustrate how non-Gaussian information originates, and how it can be used to characterize ecosystem properties.     

船舶主柴油机并车运行新方法

研究了船舶主柴油机并车运行的技术难点,分析总结了几种常用的船舶主柴油机并车运行方法的优缺点,并提出一种全新的船舶主柴油机并车运行方法——单调速器法。经试验室验证与实船应用,证明该方法易于实现、效果理想。     

色散方程两层绝对稳定的实心隐格式

利用组合差商法对色散方程ur=auxxx的初边值问题构造了一组带参数的2层4点实心隐式差分格式，其截断误差为0（τ^2＋h^4），绝对稳定．这是一组高精度、高稳定的差分格式．     

平板在组合载荷作用下的极限强度预报的一种简化解析法

船体平板强度在船舶结构极限强度分析中起到十分重要的作用。最近几年，一些作者提出了计算平板极限强度的一种简化解析方法。但绝大部分的研究只考虑了平板纵向受压这一种简单载荷的情况。在我们成功地解决了三向组合载荷(纵、横压缩和垂向均布压力)的基础上，在本文中，我们又进一步将此方法推广到包含面内剪力在内的所有组合载荷分量均存在的一般情况。通过与一些规范公式的比较表明，本文所推导的公式是可以比较精确地预报平板在一般组合载荷作用下的极限强度。这一工作一方面可以为规范中的一些经验公式提供理论依据，另一方面也许可以提供比经验公式更好的外插能力。为了简化使用本文的方法，本文也在大量参数系列计算的基础上给出了一个回归的经验公式。     

交通分布-交通分配组合模型研究

在交通规划实践中，交通分布和交通分配问题作为“四阶段预测模型”各自独立，尽管两个问题紧密相关．因此，有必要建立交通分布-交通分配组合模型，来反映这种反馈．文中介绍了Evans模型，并说明了逐次平均法求解模型的步骤，最后用算例说明了具体算法．这种方法完全可以用Microsoft Excel计算，计算方法简单，可以为组合模型的求解提供新的思路．