埃及塞德东港二期地连墙灌注桩组合码头结构数值模型研究

依托埃及塞德港东港集装箱码头二期水工项目,对地连墙灌注桩组合结构进行了多种工况下系列数值模型研究,分析研究了组合形式的码头结构受力变形规律,计算成果不但为复杂码头的结构设计计算提供了结构变形参考数据,而且作为主要输入条件之一在本工程中创新结构计算方法中得到了深入应用。地连墙灌注桩的系列数值模型研究内容与思路对其他类似工程结构设计研究具有较大的推广借鉴作用,意义深远。     

基于信息化联合作战的指控与火控一体化研究

基于信息化联合作战需求,阐述了传统的指挥控制与火力控制信息交互方式面临的挑战,分析了信息化联合作战对指挥控制与火力控制一体化的军事需求,对指挥控制与火力控制一体化的特点、功能和系统设计方法及原则进行了阐述,并以具体示例加以说明。     

Analysis of peak and non‐peak traffic forecasts using combined models

Accurate and timely traffic forecasting is crucial to effective management of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). To predict travel time index (TTI) data, we select six baseline individual predictors as basic combination components. Applying the one‐step‐ahead out‐of‐sample forecasts, the paper proposes several linear combined forecasting techniques. States of traffic situations are classified into peak and non‐peak periods. Based on detailed data analyses, some practical guidance and comments are given in what situation a combined model is better than an individual model or other types of combined models. Indicating which model is more appropriate in each state, persuasive comparisons demonstrate that the combined procedures can significantly reduce forecast error rates. It reveals that the approaches are practically promising in the field. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time to systematically investigate these approaches in peak and non‐peak traffic forecasts. The studies can provide a reference for optimal forecasting model selection in each period. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) estimation of multinomial probit-based unordered response choice models

The likelihood functions of multinomial probit (MNP)-based choice models entail the evaluation of analytically-intractable integrals. As a result, such models are usually estimated using maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) techniques. Unfortunately, for many practical situations, the computational cost to ensure good asymptotic MSL estimator properties can be prohibitive and practically infeasible as the number of dimensions of integration rises. In this paper, we introduce a maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) estimation approach for MNP models that can be applied using simple optimization software for likelihood estimation. It also represents a conceptually and pedagogically simpler procedure relative to simulation techniques, and has the advantage of substantial computational time efficiency relative to the MSL approach. The paper provides a “blueprint” for the MACML estimation for a wide variety of MNP models.     

Modelling demand in restricted parking zones

Multiple linear regression (MLR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models are used for estimating parking demand in areas with paid short stay parking systems. These models have been applied to the city of Santander (Cantabria, Spain) to check their goodness of fit and their predictive ability. The results show the main advantages and disadvantages of using GWR models. The technique proved to be useful in this case study because it offered a better fit and made better predictions in a scenario showing a certain degree of spatial heterogeneity unexplained by any of the variables introduced into the global model. However, the GWR model also presented situations of local correlation although this was considered moderate given the results provided by the variance inflation factors and the local condition indexes.     

Sight distance analysis of highways using GIS tools

Analyzing the distance visible to a driver on the highway is important for traffic safety, especially in maneuvers such as emergency stops, when passing another vehicle or when vehicles cross at intersections. This analysis is necessary not only in the design phase of highways, but also when they are in service. For its use in this last phase, a procedure supported by a Geographic Information System (GIS) has been implemented that determines the highway distances visible to the driver. The use of a GIS allows the sight distance analysis to be integrated with other analyses related to traffic safety, such as crash and design consistency analyses. In this way, more complete analyses could be made and costs shared. Additionally, with the procedure proposed it is possible to use data regarding the trajectory of a vehicle obtained on a highway with a Global Positioning System (GPS) device. This application is very useful when highway design data are not available. The procedure developed and its application in a case study are presented in this article.     

基于双层隐式马尔科夫模型的驾驶意图辨识

构建了一种双层隐式马尔科夫模型结构,用于实时辨识驾驶员复合工况下的驾驶意图,并在驾驶模拟器上对坡道起步、紧急避障和弯道制动等复合工况进行了验证。结果表明,该模型可准确、高效地辨识各个单一和复合工况下的驾驶意图,为线控汽车的集成控制奠定基础,提高线控汽车的安全性和减轻驾驶员负担。     

公路建设管理模式的几个经济学问题

根据市场经济中的基本理论,如市场效率、供给和需求及科斯定理,分析目前公路建设模式存在的问题,结合目前公路建设中资金紧张和筹资压力较大的情况,提出几种更加有效利用建设资金的公路建设模式.     

阔大货物运输安全分析

阔大货物运输在铁路货物运输过程中占有重要地位。本文首先论述了阔大货物所受惯性力具有随机性的特点,在此基础上采用概率统计理论,建立了单位惯性力分布规律,给出了相应的计算方法。通过惯性力分布规律,建立了阔大货物运输安全模型,给出了阔大货物运输失稳的分析方法．在此基础上,通过建立阔大货物加固力平衡方程,给出了加固力分布函数,...     

真空联合堆载预压法在人工岛地基处理中的应用

港珠澳大桥珠澳口岸人工岛西、北护岸及岛内区部分采用真空联合堆载预压法进行地基处理。真空预压法和堆载预压法整合使用,真空预压法产生的侧向收缩变形能有效消除堆载预压法产生的侧向挤压变形,起到保证地基处理过程中地基稳定作用;具有加快软土地基固结速度、有效提高施工效率、缩短施工期、保证地基处理效果、施工设备简单等优点。