大连港吞吐量与腹地经济发展关系研究

文章采用圈层结构法将大连港腹地划分为三个圈层范围,并通过构建哈夫引力模型分析各圈层经济指标与港口吞吐量之间的关系。结果表明：各圈层的经济指标对港口吞吐量的影响存在可量化的差异,从营口港对大连港吞吐量的实际影响出发,分析原因,并在两港腹地资源竞争分析基础上,提出区域化合作将是两港未来发展的理性选择。     

基于组合模型的天津港吞吐量预测

根据天津港货物吞吐量的历史数据,分别建立有关该港吞吐量的回归预测模型、Logistic生长曲线模型以及组合模型。通过比较3种模型的平均相对误差,可以证明组合模型的平均相对误差最小。运用组合模型预测港口吞吐量可以降低误差,提高预测精度。     

潮汐河口长航道乘潮问题研究

针对潮汐河口长航道乘潮计算的潮位资料代表性问题,提出了潮汐河口乘潮水位的多站联合计算法。该方法利用多站同步潮位资料,综合考虑船舶通航方式与潮波传播速度等因素,可合理计算潮汐河口乘潮水位。长江口深水航道的有关计算表明,相同乘潮历时和累积频率对应的乘潮水位,进河口大于沿程单站的乘潮水位,且明显大于出河口。潮汐河口长航道设计,应根据当地河口的潮汐性质、强度及其与径流的对比,以及船舶航行的特点包括航速、进出港载货情况和航道沿程水深,确定合理的乘潮方式,即选择合适的航道乘潮长度。     

埃及塞德东港二期地连墙灌注桩组合码头结构数值模型研究

依托埃及塞德港东港集装箱码头二期水工项目,对地连墙灌注桩组合结构进行了多种工况下系列数值模型研究,分析研究了组合形式的码头结构受力变形规律,计算成果不但为复杂码头的结构设计计算提供了结构变形参考数据,而且作为主要输入条件之一在本工程中创新结构计算方法中得到了深入应用。地连墙灌注桩的系列数值模型研究内容与思路对其他类似工程结构设计研究具有较大的推广借鉴作用,意义深远。     

基于信息化联合作战的指控与火控一体化研究

基于信息化联合作战需求,阐述了传统的指挥控制与火力控制信息交互方式面临的挑战,分析了信息化联合作战对指挥控制与火力控制一体化的军事需求,对指挥控制与火力控制一体化的特点、功能和系统设计方法及原则进行了阐述,并以具体示例加以说明。     

Analysis of peak and non‐peak traffic forecasts using combined models

Accurate and timely traffic forecasting is crucial to effective management of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). To predict travel time index (TTI) data, we select six baseline individual predictors as basic combination components. Applying the one‐step‐ahead out‐of‐sample forecasts, the paper proposes several linear combined forecasting techniques. States of traffic situations are classified into peak and non‐peak periods. Based on detailed data analyses, some practical guidance and comments are given in what situation a combined model is better than an individual model or other types of combined models. Indicating which model is more appropriate in each state, persuasive comparisons demonstrate that the combined procedures can significantly reduce forecast error rates. It reveals that the approaches are practically promising in the field. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time to systematically investigate these approaches in peak and non‐peak traffic forecasts. The studies can provide a reference for optimal forecasting model selection in each period. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) estimation of multinomial probit-based unordered response choice models

The likelihood functions of multinomial probit (MNP)-based choice models entail the evaluation of analytically-intractable integrals. As a result, such models are usually estimated using maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) techniques. Unfortunately, for many practical situations, the computational cost to ensure good asymptotic MSL estimator properties can be prohibitive and practically infeasible as the number of dimensions of integration rises. In this paper, we introduce a maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) estimation approach for MNP models that can be applied using simple optimization software for likelihood estimation. It also represents a conceptually and pedagogically simpler procedure relative to simulation techniques, and has the advantage of substantial computational time efficiency relative to the MSL approach. The paper provides a “blueprint” for the MACML estimation for a wide variety of MNP models.     

Modelling demand in restricted parking zones

Multiple linear regression (MLR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models are used for estimating parking demand in areas with paid short stay parking systems. These models have been applied to the city of Santander (Cantabria, Spain) to check their goodness of fit and their predictive ability. The results show the main advantages and disadvantages of using GWR models. The technique proved to be useful in this case study because it offered a better fit and made better predictions in a scenario showing a certain degree of spatial heterogeneity unexplained by any of the variables introduced into the global model. However, the GWR model also presented situations of local correlation although this was considered moderate given the results provided by the variance inflation factors and the local condition indexes.     

Sight distance analysis of highways using GIS tools

Analyzing the distance visible to a driver on the highway is important for traffic safety, especially in maneuvers such as emergency stops, when passing another vehicle or when vehicles cross at intersections. This analysis is necessary not only in the design phase of highways, but also when they are in service. For its use in this last phase, a procedure supported by a Geographic Information System (GIS) has been implemented that determines the highway distances visible to the driver. The use of a GIS allows the sight distance analysis to be integrated with other analyses related to traffic safety, such as crash and design consistency analyses. In this way, more complete analyses could be made and costs shared. Additionally, with the procedure proposed it is possible to use data regarding the trajectory of a vehicle obtained on a highway with a Global Positioning System (GPS) device. This application is very useful when highway design data are not available. The procedure developed and its application in a case study are presented in this article.     

基于双层隐式马尔科夫模型的驾驶意图辨识

构建了一种双层隐式马尔科夫模型结构,用于实时辨识驾驶员复合工况下的驾驶意图,并在驾驶模拟器上对坡道起步、紧急避障和弯道制动等复合工况进行了验证。结果表明,该模型可准确、高效地辨识各个单一和复合工况下的驾驶意图,为线控汽车的集成控制奠定基础,提高线控汽车的安全性和减轻驾驶员负担。