北京经济技术开发区太和东桥主线拓宽改造方案研究

为增加太和东桥立交节点南北向的通行能力,对太和东桥主线拓宽改造工程进行了方案分析研究.通过对现状条件的梳理、对规划方案的解读、对项目功能的分析理解,确定了拓宽改造工程的设计原则,对两侧拓宽、两侧新建、东侧新建3个改造方案进行了比选,并对推荐方案(东侧新建)从平面线位、纵断面、横断面及路面结构三方面进行了方案综述,对如何在利用现有资源、避免大拆大建的基础上改造立交节点,满足交通需求进行了归纳总结.     

基于交通因子状态网络的城市交叉口交通流预测

信息技术的快速发展,为交通研究和城市交通管理提供了大规模、多样化的数据资源,并为城市交通状态估计和交通流预测方法的研究提供了有力支持。将城市交叉口视为一个微观交通系统,采用数据驱动与领域知识结合的方式,建立微观层次的交通因子状态网络模型（Traffic Factor State Network,TFSN）,考察交通因素之间的相互关联,并考虑环境因素的影响。该模型结合交通因子和环境影响因子的影响,通过对交通流数据进行聚类分析,估算出对应于环境影响因子的交通状态,并通过实际案例验证其物理意义以及与交通流实际状态的对应关系。进一步地,基于不同交通状态下的交通流数据建立高阶多元马尔可夫链,进行交通流预测,并根据交通流时间序列的聚类性能指标提高模型的预测准确性。对数据序列马氏性强弱、马尔可夫模型阶数与模型预测准确性之间关系进行分析。研究结果表明：根据马氏性合理选择马尔可夫模型的阶数可以提升模型预测准确性;直接对原始交通流数据进行预测的平均绝对百分比误差为24.61%,而不同交通状态下交通流预测的平均绝对百分比误差为16.99%,相比直接预测误差下降了7.62%,验证了所提出的微观交通因子状态网络的有效性和可用性。     

露石水泥混凝土路面关键技术研究

研究了露石水泥混凝土路面铺筑过程中必然要遇到的材料选择、冲洗时间、成熟度、双层铺筑混凝土强度等关键技术问题,分析了冲洗时间、成熟度的主要影响因素,发现温度越高,冲洗时间越早,最早冲洗时间与最迟冲洗时间有较大的间隔,常温下可达十多个小时,温度升高,间隔减小,成熟度随温度的升高而增大,相隔一定时间分两层振捣的水泥混凝土试件强度与一次振捣的水泥混凝土试件强度基本相同。结果表明:成熟度指标、试验法是评价、检测露石工艺性质的有效手段,两层铺筑方法是降低此种路面成本的有效途径。     

Decomposition analysis of decoupling freight transport from economic growth in China

Freight transport industry plays a significant role in boosting economic growth, while also creating many negative externalities for social welfare and the environment. Using data from 1997 to 2017, this study employs the complete decomposition technique to identify the driving forces of freight transport and explores its internal relations with economic growth in China. The decomposition analysis focuses on four factors that are responsible for freight transport: economic activity, industrial structure, transport intensity, and haulage distance. Then, the decoupling index is adopted to examine the decoupling relationship between freight transport and economic growth in China. The results showed that weak decoupling between freight transport and economic growth was the main state during the study period. A strong decoupling effect was identified in 1997–1998, 2012–2013, and 2014–2015, whereas no decoupling effect was observed in 1998–1999, 2008–2009, and 2011–2012. The transport intensity was the most important contributor to the decoupling progress, the industrial structure effect played a role in promoting the decoupling progress over half of the years during the research period, and the haulage distance effect facilitated the decoupling progress in more than one-third of the years examined.     

泥水平衡盾构穿越富水砂砾层施工技术研究

文章依托沈阳地铁十号线11标长青桥站—浑南大道工程,该工程区间全长1.6 km,采用?6240 mm泥水平衡盾构施工,穿越段以富水砂砾层为主,最大粒径110 mm,在施工过程中,通过优化调整刀盘的合理选型和泥浆参数,有效地减少了刀盘的磨损,全程未更换刀具。研究表明:通过分析盾构设计阶段刀盘的选型配置和隧道贯通后刀具的磨损情况,提出了一套有针对性的泥水盾构刀盘配置;通过分析施工掘进参数可知,提高泥浆粘度虽然可以增加泥浆支护效果,但易在盾构刀盘的正面形成泥饼,导致正面砾石无法顺利进入土舱内,进而造成扭矩及推力的异常;通过分析不同粘度、比重下盾构机扭矩及推力的变化,总结了富水砂砾层中泥浆参数的合理指标,对今后类似工程的施工具有借鉴意义。     

基于Asaoka法的软基处理动态设计

在软基处理工程中，对实测沉降数据的分析通常仅局限于推算最终沉降和固结度。以Asaoka法为基础，可以利用实测沉降数据建立软基处理动态设计的完整流程。总结了采用Asaoka法推算预压荷载下的最终沉降和固结度的方法，提出进行水平向固结系数、压缩指数等土体参数反演分析和预压工期预测的实用方法，并通过工程实例介绍了其应用。该流程可以充分利用监测数据，实现软基处理的动态化设计, 对设计和施工具有较强的指导意义。     

Vehicle insurance and the risk of road traffic accidents

Given the upward trend in incidences of road traffic accidents (RTAs) over recent years, in order to mitigate the financial losses arising from such accidents, governments around the world nowadays generally encourage, or even require, drivers to purchase appropriate vehicle insurance. The primary aim of this study is to examine whether RTAs are directly related to the purchase of vehicle insurance, with our examination of data on vehicle damage insurance policyholders revealing that those drivers who purchase more insurance coverage have a higher probability of being involved in accidents, as a result of which, they will tend to submit more claims. This indicates that insurance coverage might contain information which can be used to assess the probability risk levels of RTAs. We also find that drivers with less safety awareness will tend to purchase more coverage, and that those who purchase more coverage will, in turn, tend to have more accidents and submit more claims. Our findings, which provide a number of road traffic policy implications, would appear to justify the use of the bonus–malus system.     

道路运输企业发展现代物流切入点选择方法研究

针对道路运输企业发展现代物流切入点选择的重要性和风险性,文章在分析道路运输企业发展物流切入点的基础上,建立了切入点选择的评价指标体系,提出一种以行业吸引力竞争能力矩阵为基础,并综合运用模糊评判法、层次分析法和德尔菲法的切入点选择方法,最后在某道路运输企业发展现代物流切入点选择中得到应用。     

秦沈客运专线道床状态指标的试验研究

针对秦沈客运专线新线一次性铺设跨区间无缝线路的特点 ,通过对道床状态各项指标的综合测试 ,在系统分析研究的基础上 ,就跨区间无缝线路道床状态指标的确定、施工控制等方面提出合理的建议     

Wave climate evolution in the Bay of Biscay over two decades

As a background, a review of long term evolution of wave climate in the North Atlantic is discussed. Most studies show that interannual evolutions in wave heights may be related to climatic factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation Index for example.Data of a waverider, consisting of a time series of 20 years in the Bay of Biscay (off Biscarosse, France), are analysed. Based on these data obtained from 1980, wave heights tend to decrease over the period. Also, interannual evolutions exist, particularly in the wave period. The fact that the annual wave periods at Biscarosse are found to vary more significantly than the annual wave heights led us to assume that it is an indirect effect of the evolution in the location of generating storms relative to the buoy. The relationships between wave parameters and climatic factors such as the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and the Garonne discharge have been derived: they show that the NAO index is negatively correlated with the river discharge and positively correlated with the wave period. This result is in agreement with the general climate scheme associated with NAO cycle proposed by Kushnir et al. [Kushnir, Y., Cardone, V.J., Cane, M., 1995. Link between Atlantic climate variability of surface wave height and sea level pressure. Proc. Fourth Int. Workshop on Wave Incasting and forecasting, Banff, AB, Canada, 59–64.]: NAO+ shifts storm tracks northward and dry weather are encountered in the southern part of Europe (conversely NAO− brings storm tracks and rainfall closer). Concerning wave heights, the lack of dependence on NAO index may be associated with compensation effects between wind intensity and storm tracks: wave energy is partly dissipated while reaching the Bay of Biscay in case of severe but distant storms (NAO+), which is not the case for storms generated nearer to the buoy and associated with moderate westerly winds (NOA−). However, the reason of the decrease in wave heights is not clear.