面向传染病疫情防控的公共交通运行管理决策支持研究

近年来全球新发重大传染病疫情不断出现，已成为人类社会必须防范应对的重大风险。公共交通在传染病疫情防控过程中承担着阻断病毒传播和保障复工复产的功能，疫情期间公共交通运行管理的决策需求和技术支撑体系与日常情况有显著差异。现有研究多针对公交日常运行决策需求展开，虽有少量针对突发公共事件的应急管理决策支持的研究，但多针对自然灾害和事故灾难场景，无法迁移应用于传染病疫情防控。基于此，以新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情为例，综合考虑突发公共卫生事件应急管理流程和疫情防控实际情况，系统梳理疫情不同阶段的防控目标和决策需求，提出一种面向传染病疫情防控的公共交通运行管理决策支持系统框架，建立基于公共卫生事件案例库、多源数据融合库、公交数据分析技术库和公交防疫策略库的功能架构，并设计不同功能模块的算法模型。研究以厦门为例，对提出的决策支持系统的功能架构和算法模型进行验证。研究结果表明，构建公交乘客出行链的成功率为89.7%，并可应用于疫情不同阶段的关联客流分析、感染者同乘人员的追溯分析、医护人员等防疫人员的通勤出行识别、公交运行满载率监控等方面。研究成果不仅对传染病疫情防控有实用价值，而且对突发公共事件应急管理决策支持方法亦有理论贡献。     

软土层地铁车站基坑常见事故及预防

软土地层地铁车站基坑施工时的典型事故有墙体渗漏、土体纵向滑坡、坑底隆起失稳及支撑失稳等。该文总结了这些事故的典型特征,分析了造成事故的原因,并且对事故的预防及控制给出了建议。     

新冠肺炎疫情下城市公共交通非常规防疫策略——以宁波市为例

在国家重大突发疫情面前，城市公共交通具有保障出行与阻断疫情的双重责任。面对新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎（简称新冠肺炎，COVID-19）疫情，城市公共交通既要保证有效运输，又要降低疫情扩散的风险。地铁和常规公交是城市公共交通系统不可缺少的一部分，在城市公共交通中占据重要地位。针对宁波市城市公共交通系统中存在的防疫问题，提出了基于问题驱动的城市公共交通非常规防疫策略。研究结果表明：新冠肺炎疫情形势下，城市公共交通系统防疫需要启动应急响应机制，遵循分区分类防控的基本原则，在保障人们刚性出行需求的同时，必须阻断疫情传播，减少通过公共交通运输造成的交叉感染，实现疫情可防可控。除体温检测、佩戴口罩与洗手消毒等防疫措施之外，还应结合地方实际和风险评估等级采取非常规的组合防疫策略，即：①面向城市常规公交，建议采取网格化运营策略、需求响应式运营策略以及应急公交接驳策略；②面向城市轨道交通，建议采取3级组合防疫策略，即暂停运营策略、车厢隔离防疫策略以及需求响应式防疫策略。以上常规公交与轨道交通的多种组合防疫策略需根据疫情的发展情况动态调整，及时启动相应级别的公共交通应急预案，被动防御与主动防控相结合，积极发挥城市公共交通在疫情时期的交通骨干作用和应急保障作用。     

辽东山区预防土壤砂砾化的技术措施

简要介绍了辽东山区17万hm 2砂砾化山丘的现状,概述砂砾化山丘的类型、特点,并提出了植物措施、工程措施、封育措施等几种预防砂砾化山丘的技术措施。     

汽车机械故障原因及防范措施

自中国改革开放以来我国的经济得到了飞速的提升,人们的生活质量和生活水平也在日新月异的变化,在现今时代汽车已经普及到了千家万户,成为了人们日常生活的必需品,也正因为如此汽车机械故障的原因及防范措施也逐渐受到了人们的关注,本文也就汽车故障产生的原因进行了分析,并寻找出相对应的解决策略。     

预应力混凝土梁式桥支座病害与防治

支座作为桥梁结构的重要构件,发挥着承重、抗震、抗击水平荷载、辅助梁体正常工作等的重要作用,其质量和性能直接影响桥梁的使用寿命.普通橡胶支座良好的耐久性、安装简易性、与稳定性能,以及"低廉"的价格,使之成为桥梁支座的首选构件.普通板式支座在预应力混凝土梁式桥(简支、连续、刚构)用得较多,支座病害也较多.由于人们对此病害的认识的深度不足,导致了很多梁式桥支座在投入运营前就处于带病状态,桥梁过早进入维修周期.现通过多年对梁式桥出现的支座病害情况的调研,总结分析了支座病害的成因、病害对桥梁整体寿命的影响;对工程常用的、数量较多的普通板式支座五种病害类型的危害特点进行论述;提出了有针对性防治措施;同时针对现浇梁式桥危害最大的支座剪裂病害提出两种解决方法,通过在兴延高速公路六环路立交的成功应用,为解决支座剪裂病害提供了借鉴.     

驾驶辅助技术在事故预防中的应用效果

越来越多的车型都搭载了驾驶辅助系统,部分驾驶人对这类系统的实际效果持怀疑态度。本文通过调研国内外相关研究,对几类主流驾驶辅助系统的事故预防效果进行综述。与相同条件下未安装驾驶辅助系统的车辆对比,研究人员发现多数驾驶辅助系统在事故预防方面发挥了明显的作用,降低了相关的事故率、保险索赔率,其中前向和后向的自动紧急制动系统效果最为显著。此外,驾驶人对驾驶辅助系统的接受度以及响应度均会影响事故预防效果。     

基于进化博弈的城市中心区交通拥堵收费分析

交通拥堵收费是解决道路拥堵问题的有效措施。假设使用小汽车到达拥挤收费区域边界的出行者可通过2种方式到达拥挤收费中心区：小汽车直达及停车换乘公共交通（P＆R）。对于出行者甲（对小汽车出行需求偏刚性）、乙（对小汽车出行需求偏弹性）,采用进化博弈的方法,建立效益矩阵,分析在不同政府定价条件下两者出行方式选择行为的演化模型。结果表明,政府交通拥堵收费对出行者出行方式选择行为的演化起着重要作用,不同的定价区间会使得出行方式向不同的稳定状态演变。分析各种定价区间下出行者出行方式选择行为。     

Evaluation of the effectiveness of accident information on freeway changeable message signs: A comparison of empirical methodologies

In this paper, we study the effectiveness of accident messages that are displayed on freeway changeable message signs (CMS). Motivated by the lack of empirical studies and the mixed results reported in the limited empirical studies, this paper focuses on the comparison of different aggregate analysis methodologies and their corresponding results, using the same empirical data set. We have two major findings. First, we find that the CMS accident messages do not seem to have any significant immediate effect on driver diversion based on our empirical data. Visible congestion, on the other hand, seems to be an important factor for driver diversion. Second, we show how the conclusion could have been if wrong methodologies were to be adopted. Methods that rely on correlation alone but not the timing of events (what we call correlation method) yield high correlation between CMS accident messages and driver diversion, which is typically and incorrectly interpreted as CMS accident messages being effective.     

Marginal costs of freeway traffic congestion with on-road pollution exposure externality

The health cost of on-road air pollution exposure is a component of traffic marginal costs that has not previously been assessed. The main objective of this paper is to introduce on-road pollution exposure as an externality of traffic, particularly important during traffic congestion when on-road pollution exposure is highest. Marginal private and external cost equations are developed that include on-road pollution exposure in addition to time, fuel, and pollution emissions components. The marginal external cost of on-road exposure includes terms for the marginal vehicle’s emissions, the increased emissions from all vehicles caused by additional congestion from the marginal vehicle, and the additional exposure duration for all travelers caused by additional congestion from the marginal vehicle. A sensitivity analysis shows that on-road pollution exposure can be a large portion (18%) of marginal social costs of traffic flow near freeway capacity, ranging from 4% to 38% with different exposure parameters. In an optimal pricing scenario, excluding the on-road exposure externality can lead to 6% residual welfare loss because of sub-optimal tolls. While regional pollution generates greater costs in uncongested conditions, on-road exposure comes to dominate health costs on congested freeways because of increased duration and intensity of exposure. The estimated marginal cost and benefit curves indicate a theoretical preference for price controls to address the externality problem. The inclusion of on-road exposure costs reduces the magnitudes of projects required to cover implementation costs for intelligent transportation system (ITS) improvements; the net benefits of road-pricing ITS systems are increased more than the net benefits of ITS traffic flow improvements. When considering distinct vehicle classes, inclusion of on-road exposure costs greatly increases heavy-duty vehicle marginal costs because of their higher emissions rates and greater roadway capacity utilization. Lastly, there are large uncertainties associated with the parameters utilized in the estimation of health outcomes that are a function of travel pollution intensity and duration. More research is needed to develop on-road exposure modeling tools that link repeated short-duration exposure and health outcomes.