基于VAR模型的南京市交通量与经济发展关系研究

在对南京市交通量与经济发展指标统计分析的基础上,运用向量自回归模型——VAR模型进行分析,通过采用协整检验模型、Granger因果关系检验模型和脉冲响应函数等分析,得到交通运输与经济发展之间的关系,并给出相应的建议.     

隧道与互通出口小净距路段换道可靠性研究

为分析高速公路隧道与互通出口小净距路段在不同交通流状况下的车辆驶出概率,提出了基于交通仿真的安全换道概率模型。首先,采用VISSIM标定仿真模型并进行正交试验,获取小净距路段在不同净距长度、交通量、驶出比例、大型车比例下的交通数据,在此基础上确定瞬时交通流密度及相应车流平均速度的计算方法,构建相应的分布模型,通过K均值聚类算法研究不同速度下的瞬时交通流密度大小和出现概率;同时引入可靠度方法并利用微分法来构建车辆安全换道概率模型,综合考虑车速、车流密度、目标车道临界可插入间隙等因素的不确定性,应用蒙特卡罗仿真法搭建求解概率模型的算法,并通过MATLAB对模型进行求解;针对分流车初始位置的不同,分别得到了不同交通量、大型车比例、净距长度下的换道驶出成功率,进而研究不同交通流状况组合下的净距长度。结果表明：交通量、大型车比例、净距长度对净距路段内侧车道车辆换道驶出成功率有显著性影响,研究结果可为规范的进一步完善提供参考。     

Vertical random vibration analysis of vehicle–track coupled system using Green's function method

A vertical vehicle–track coupled dynamic model, consisting of a high-speed train on a continuously supported rail, is established in the frequency-domain. The solution is obtained efficiently by use of the Green's function method, which can determine the vibration response over a wide range of frequency without any limitations due to modal truncation. Moreover, real track irregularity spectra can be used conveniently as input. The effect of the flexibility of both track and car body on the entire vehicle–track coupled dynamic response is investigated. A multi-body model of a vehicle with either rigid or flexible car body is defined running on three kinds of track: a rigid rail, a track stiffness model and a Timoshenko beam model. The results show that neglecting the track flexibility leads to an overestimation of both the contact force and the whole vehicle vibration response. The car body flexibility affects the ride quality of the vehicle and the coupling through the track and can be significant in certain frequency ranges. Finally, the effect of railpad and ballast stiffness on the vehicle–track coupled vibration is analysed, indicating that the stiffness of the railpad has an influence on the system in a higher frequency range than the ballast.     

发货人满意度条件下Hotelling模型的港口竞争分析

将发货人满意度和港口兼容性引入发货人效用函数，放宽传统Hotelling竞争模型中港口定位必须局限于发货人分布空间的假设，通过拓展线性Hotelling模型来研究发货人满意度和港口兼容性与港口选址、收费的关系。研究表明：发货人满意度在港口市场竞争中具有关键作用；同时，发货人满意度相对较强的港口并不一定具有市场竞争优势，市场竞争形成市场份额的最终格局取决于发货人满意度的相对强弱程度。     

Improving the estimation of total and direction-based heavy-duty vehicle annual average daily traffic

Abstract

The estimation of annual average daily traffic (AADT) is an important parameter collected and maintained by all US departments of transportation. There have been many past research studies that have focused on ways to improve the estimation of AADT. This paper builds upon previous research and compares eight methods, both traditional and cluster-based methodologies, for aggregating monthly adjustment factors for heavy-duty vehicles (US Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) vehicle classes 4–13). In addition to the direct comparison between the methodologies, the results from the analysis of variance show at the 95% confidence level that the four cluster-based methods produce statistically lower variance and coefficient of variation over the more traditional approaches. In addition to these findings – which are consistent with previous total volume studies – further analysis is performed to compare total heavy-duty monthly adjustment factors, both directions of traffic, with direction-based monthly adjustment factors. The final results show that the variance as well as the coefficient of variation improve on average by 25% when directional aggregate monthly adjustment factors are used instead of total direction.     

广义罚函数法及其在电机优化设计中的应用

提出了一种新的适用于电机优化设计的广义罚函数法，该方法可以避免增目标函数的“病态”特性，具有收敛速度快、自动边界搜索等优点。在电机优化设计中的应用表明，该方法优于ＳＵＭＴ法。     

城市道路交叉口借道右转车道设置方法

为了弥补交叉口空间布局中对借道右转车道研究的不足,分析了借道右转车辆在两相邻交叉口间的运行过程,将两交叉口间距分为四部分。采用波动理论、考虑驾驶员的操作顺适性以及采用概率论方法,建立了借道右转的右转车道适宜开口位置模型、借道右转的绿化带开口长度模型和路段右转车辆的合流段长度模型,在此基础上得到了实施借道右转的两交叉口最小间距模型。实例分析表明,所得模型符合两相邻交叉口间的交通流运行实际,对于判断两相邻交叉口是否适合于设置借道右转,以及设置借道右转时如何对各构成部分进行分析具有指导意义。     

一种三维时域格林函数计算方法

如何高效地计算出三维时域格林函数是线性时域方法能否有效地求解船舶水动力问题的关键.本文在前人工作的基础上,采用了一种半解析的数值求积方法,对三维时域格林函数及其导数作了计算,这种方法十分有效,计算结果令人满意.     

Dynamics of the railway track and the underlying soil: the boundary-element solution, theoretical results and their experimental verification

A combined finite-element boundary-element method is presented in detail to calculate the dynamic interaction of the railway track and the underlying soil. A number of results are shown for ballasted and slab track, demonstrating the influence of the stiffness of the soil and the rail pads on the vertical compliance of the track. The compliance of the track is combined with a simple model of the vehicle giving the transfer function of vehicle-track interaction. An experimental verification of the theoretical results is achieved by harmonic and impulse excitation with and without static (train-) load and by combined measurements of train-track-soil interaction. A clear vehicle-track resonance is found for the slab track with elastic rail pads and for higher frequencies at highspeed traffic, the dynamic axle loads due to sleeper passage are reduced.     

试验监理在国际招标工程中的作用

在国际招标工程中,工程试验是一项十分重要的工作,通过工程试验对国际招标项目的经济效益进行控制分析,能指导工程实际,改进施工方法,确保工程质量。