潜艇指挥决策控制模型及仿真研究

在分析模糊神经网络(FNN)结构的基础上,根据潜艇指挥决策控制的特点,提出了利用模糊神经网络建立潜艇指挥决策控制模型.潜艇指挥决策控制过程是一个典型的模糊过程,模糊神经网络能够较好地处理模糊信息,并具备模糊推理能力.文中给出了适应潜艇指挥决策控制特点的模糊神经网络结构,推导了模糊神经网络学习算法,并探讨了基于模糊神经网络的潜艇指挥决策控制模型在潜艇指挥控制系统中的应用.     

弹性分组环技术在轨道交通通信传输网中的应用前景分析

目前城市轨道交通传输网络开始由单一为列车运行服务逐渐转变为列车运行及办公自动化等大数据量传输的网络化服务。介绍了弹性分组环技术的特点和发展现状,并与其他宽带技术进行比较。对弹性分组环技术在轨道交通传输网中的应用进行了可行性分析。弹性分组环技术集成了IP的智能化、以太网的经济性以及光纤环网的高带宽效率和可靠性,将成为轨道交通传输的主要技术之一。     

城市轨道交通系统动车受流方案的比较分析

对目前国内外主要的几种动车受流形式的性能和特点作了详细的比较和分析,并从定性和定量两方面分析了它们的优点和缺点。在现阶段,若无特殊要求,城市轨道交通系统受流方案应优先采用DC1500V的三轨供电系统。     

Prediction of ambient carbon monoxide concentration using nonlinear time series analysis technique

This study evaluates the potential of nonlinear time series analysis based methods in predicting the carbon monoxide concentration in an urban area. To establish the functional relationship between current and future observations, two models based on local approximations and neural network approximations are used. To compare the performance of the models, an autoregressive integrated moving average model is also applied. The multi-step forecasting capabilities of the models are evaluated.     

Statistical characteristics of transitional queue conditions in signalized arterials

The performance of signalized arterials is related to queuing phenomena. The paper investigates the effect of transitional traffic flow conditions imposed by the formation and dissipation of queues. A cross-recurrence quantification analysis combined with Bayesian augmented networks are implemented to reveal the prevailing statistical characteristics of the short-term traffic flow patterns under the effect of transitional queue conditions. Results indicate that transitions between free-flow conditions, critical queue conditions that exceed the detector’s length, as well as the occurrence of spillovers impose a set of prevailing traffic flow patterns with different statistical characteristics with respect to determinism, nonlinearity, non-stationarity and laminarity. The complexity in critical queue conditions is further investigated by introducing two supplementary regions in the critical area before spillover occurrence. Results indicate that the supplementary information on the transitional conditions in the critical area increases the accuracy of the predictive relations between the statistical characteristics of traffic flow evolution and the occurrence of transitions.     

路面载重车辆的荷载特征

在收集了我国公路上行驶的单、双后轴整车型的载重车辆轴载资料的基础上,参考国家现行轴限规定与轮胎型号等标准,从路面结构设计的角度上对轴载、轮胎气压、接地压力、轴型参数等荷载特征参数进行了整理分析,采用统计回归方法找到了特征参数的规律和相互关系,进而提出了供路面结构设计的轴型参数:双轮间距、轮距、轴距按额定轴载进行分级的建议表,以及以后轴额定轴载和轴载实载率为自变参量的轮胎接地压力的统一回归式和回归系数,讨论了现行沥青路面结构分析中双轮中心距取3倍荷载当量圆半径宜根据额定轴载和轴载实载率确定适用范围。此研究结果为提高路面结构分析精度提供了可靠的荷载特征参数依据。     

陡坡段桥梁基桩嵌岩深度问题研究

利用数值流形元在处理桩位移及应力不连续问题方面的优越性,重点解决了桩岩接触面分析的数值实现。然后,在合理模拟边坡基桩开挖及选取材料本构模型与参数的基础上,对陡坡路段桥梁基桩的嵌岩深度问题进行了深入探讨。计算表明:边坡桥梁基桩同样存在嵌岩深度问题,当嵌岩达到一定深度后,盲目增加嵌岩深度对承载力的提高已不明显,工程设计建议取2~3倍桩径。     

Representing mental maps and cognitive learning in micro-simulation models of activity-travel choice dynamics

This paper develops a model, based on Bayesian beliefs networks, for representing mental maps and cognitive learning into micro-simulation models of activity-travel behavior. Mental maps can be used to address the problem that choice sets in models of travel demand are often ad hoc specified. The theory underlying the model is discussed, a specification is derived and numerical simulation is used to illustrate the properties of the model.     

Exploring the propensity to perform social activities: a social network approach

Conceptual and empirical models of the propensity to perform social activity–travel behavior are described, which incorporate the influence of individuals’ social context, namely their social networks. More explicitly, the conceptual model develops the concepts of egocentric social networks, social activities, and social episodes, and defines the three sets of aspects that influence the propensity to perform social activities: individuals’ personal attributes, social network composition, and information and communication technology interaction with social network members. Using the structural equation modeling (SEM) technique and data recently collected in Toronto, the empirical model tests the effect of these three aspects on the propensity to perform social activities. Results suggest that the social networks framework provides useful insights into the role of physical space, social activity types, communication and information technology use, and the importance of “with whom” the activity was performed with. Overall, explicitly incorporating social networks into the activity–travel behavior modeling framework provides a promising framework to understand social activities and key aspects of the underlying behavioral process. Juan Antonio Carrasco a PhD candidate in Civil Engineering at the University of Toronto, holds a MSc degree in Transportation Engineering from the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. His doctoral research explores the relationships between social networks, activity–travel behavior, and ICTs. His research interests also include microsimulation, land use-transportation, and econometric modeling. Eric J. Miller is Bahen-Tanenbaum Professor of Civil Engineering at the University of Toronto where he is also Director of the Joint Program in Transportation. His research interests include integrated land-use/transportation modeling, activity-based travel modeling, microsimulation and sustainable transportation planning.     

柔性基层路面结构在渝湛高速公路中的应用

最新成果表明,半刚性基层的刚度过大,直接造成了沥青混凝土面层内的剪应力急剧增加,诱发沥青混凝土层的剪切破坏,解决这一问题的途径在于沥青混凝土面层和半刚性基层应具有合理的模量匹配。在渝湛高速公路的建设中,采取了柔化半刚性基层的方法,即合理地降低基层的模量。为进一步了解柔性基层路面结构内各结构层的力学响应,采用三维有限元法,对实测轮胎接地荷载下柔性路面结构内的应力场进行了深入的分析。分析表明,柔性基层更有利于避免路面的早期破坏。