A copula-based approach for estimating the travel time reliability of urban arterial

Estimating the travel time reliability (TTR) of urban arterial is critical for real-time and reliable route guidance and provides theoretical bases and technical support for sophisticated traffic management and control. The state-of-art procedures for arterial TTR estimation usually assume that path travel time follows a certain distribution, with less consideration about segment correlations. However, the conventional approach is usually unrealistic because an important feature of urban arterial is the dependent structure of travel times on continuous segments. In this study, a copula-based approach that incorporates the stochastic characteristics of segments travel time is proposed to model arterial travel time distribution (TTD), which serves as a basis for TTR quantification. First, segments correlation is empirically analyzed and different types of copula models are examined. Then, fitting marginal distributions for segment TTD is conducted by parametric and non-parametric regression analysis, respectively. Based on the estimated parameters of the models, the best-fitting copula is determined in terms of the goodness-of-fit tests. Last, the model is examined at two study sites with AVI data and NGSIM trajectory data, respectively. The results of path TTD estimation demonstrate the advantage of the proposed copula-based approach, compared with the convolution model without capturing segments correlation and the empirical distribution fitting methods. Furthermore, when considering the segments correlation effect, it was found that the estimated path TTR is more accurate than that by the convolution model.     

Hydroelastic analysis of oblique irregular waves with a pontoon-type VLFS edged with dual inclined perforated plates

The fluid-structure interaction of oblique irregular waves with a pontoon-type very large floating structure (VLFS) edged with dual horizontal/inclined perforated plates has been investigated in the context of the direct time domain modal expansion theory. For the hydroelastic analysis, the boundary element method (BEM) based on time domain Kelvin sources is implemented to establish water wave model including the viscous effect of the perforated plates through the Darcy’s law, and the finite element method (FEM) is adopted for solving the deflections of the VLFS modeled as an equivalent Mindlin thick plate. In order to enhance the computing efficiency, the interpolation-tabulation scheme is applied to assess rapidly and accurately the free-surface Green function and its partial derivatives in finite water depth, and the boundary integral equation of a half or quarter VLFS model is further established taking advantage of symmetry of flow field and structure. Also, the numerical solutions are validated against a series of experimental tests. In the comparison, the empirical relationship between the actual porosity and porous parameter is successfully applied. Numerical solutions and model tests are executed to determine the hydroelastic response characteristics of VLFS with an attached anti-motion device. This study examines the effects of porosity, submerged depth, inclined angle and gap distance of such dual perforated anti-motion plates on the hydroelastic response to provide information regarding the optimal design. The effects of oblique wave angle on the performance of anti-motion and hydroelastic behavior of VLFS are also emphatically examined.     

基于灰色关联度的船舶风险控制方案多指标评价模型

分析了仅依靠成本效益评估而选择的船舶风险控制方案的片面性,综合考虑安全、环保、经济收益、成本等多因素对方案所表现的影响,建立了基于灰色关联度的船舶风险控制方案多指标评价模型。论文所建立的该模型可以充分利用各方案的指标取值所包含的信息,并考虑专家主观因素对指标重要度的影响,通过主客观综合赋权的方法突出某个指标在方案排序中的作用。以国际海事组织对液化天然气船的综合安全评估报告所提供的风险控制措施为例,使用该模型进行方案优选,并与仅用成本效益评估所得结果比较;分析比较表明:论文所建立的多指标评价模型可以更全面评估风险控制方案,方法合理,使用简便可靠。     

空管系统飞行计划与航迹相关研究

飞行安全和流量管理空管领域一个很重要的课题,通过飞行计划与航迹相关,可以直观地了解各航空器的详细飞行状态和空域中飞行流量,及时为飞行器制订合理飞行计划,保证飞行安全和空域飞行流量。因而需要对航空器飞行计划与航迹相关的一些方法和问题进行研究,以提高空管可靠性和合理选用空域资源。     

基于频域搜索的梳状谱信号检测方法

由于梳状谱信号多普勒容限较小,利用常规的匹配/相关检测方法进行检测时,需要较大数量的拷贝信号与计算量。针对这一问题,本文提出一种基于频域搜索的梳状谱信号检测算法。通过利用梳状谱信号频域多峰结构的特点,根据信号的先验信息计算出不同径向速度下回波信号的频点分布,对接收的信号在频域进行搜索累计的方法同时实现信号的检测与速度估计。仿真分析证明了本文算法的有效性。     

基于模糊聚类与灰色关联的舰船装备技术状态评估方法

针对舰船装备维修管理中的技术状态评估需求,给出等效装备概念,构建基于模糊聚类分析的等效装备模型,并结合灰色关联评估理论,提出一种基于模糊聚类与灰色关联的舰船装备技术状态评估新方法,细化了相应的算法流程及实施步骤,从而解决舰船装备维修前后技术状态的分类与辨识问题。大量实例应用分析表明:该方法具备较好的实用性,在实际舰船装备维修工程及其信息管理系统中具有很好的推广应用前景。     

碰摩转子—油膜轴承系统的全局动力学研究

考虑滑动轴承的非线性油膜力和转定子的碰摩力,建立了含碰摩故障的单盘转子-滑动轴承耦合系统动力学模型.运用四阶变步长的龙格-库塔-基尔法获得系统的非线性响应,利用Poincaré型的简单胞映射法对转子系统进行了全局动力学分析.研究结果表明:随着转子转速的增加,系统存在多个周期解共存以及周期解与混沌解共存现象.最后列举了转...     

基于相关性精简关联规则生成算法

针对传统基于支持度-置信度桩架关联规则挖掘算法生成规则只考虑支持度和置信度的因素、没有考虑规则两者本身内在的关系并因此产生大量无效的规则的情况,提出了一种采用相关性精简关联规则产生的算法,此算法增加了一个度量——相关性来精简关联规则的产生。实验表明该算法在继承传统算法的优点的同时在一定的程度上提高了规则的有效性,降低规则冗余。     

高黏改性剂与基质沥青配伍性研究

为了在有限样本条件下得到高黏改性剂优选基质沥青的控制指标,对境内外2种高黏改性剂与4种常用基质沥青进行配伍性试验,并以针入度、软化点、低温延度、60℃动力黏度及170℃布氏黏度为控制指标,从而得出配伍性最佳的基质沥青,然后分别对每种基质沥青进行针入度、软化点、延度等全套常规性能试验和不同老化程度的温度扫描、频率扫描等流...     

驾驶行为与驾驶风险国际研究进展

驾驶人在驾驶车辆的过程中总会面临由自身或外界条件所带来的或高或低的风险,即驾驶风险,通过对驾驶风险进行识别、分析及评估是对风险进行管理的有效对策,明确由人为因素（即驾驶人个体特征及驾驶行为）所带来的驾驶风险并对驾驶人进行安全管理尤为重要。为了全面了解各类危险驾驶行为和各种驾驶人群体的驾驶风险行为研究进展,对驾驶风险领域重点问题进行了总体概述。从驾驶人个体特征及驾驶行为的角度出发,探究了驾驶风险领域目前的研究现状,并利用科学知识图谱展示驾驶风险领域研究的发展进程与结构关系。通过Web of Science核心合集数据库获取了3 406篇在1986~2020年（截至2020年2月29日）间出版的驾驶风险研究相关英文文献,共涵盖8 684位作者及6 018个关键词,基于科学知识图谱对该领域文献进行梳理与分析。结果表明：驾驶风险领域的国外研究在驾驶人选择方面主要从年轻驾驶人、老年驾驶人、新手驾驶人及职业驾驶人的角度进行切入,重点围绕酒驾、药驾、分心驾驶及疲劳驾驶等主题开展研究。与国外研究相比,中国在分心驾驶、疲劳驾驶领域的研究相对丰富,而针对酒驾、药驾的研究试验手段较为单一,研究不够全面;在研究对象的选取上,有必要进一步增加老年驾驶人及新手驾驶人的深入研究,包括老年驾驶人适驾性评估与教育培训,以及新手驾驶人驾照分级制度的可行性探索。在研究方法方面,国外常见研究方法包括问卷调查、驾驶模拟器试验、实车试验以及自然驾驶研究等,而中国在自然驾驶研究领域尚未充分开发利用;未来应考虑多种方法相结合并从不同角度促进对驾驶行为及驾驶风险的全面理解。