Investigating micro-simulation error in activity-based travel demand forecasting: a case study of the FEATHERS framework

Activity-based models of travel demand have received considerable attention in transportation planning and forecasting in recent years. However, in most cases they use a micro-simulation approach, thereby inevitably including a stochastic error that is caused by the statistical distributions of random components. As a consequence, running a transport micro-simulation model several times with the same input will generate different outputs, which baffles practitioners in applying such a model and in interpreting the results. A common approach is therefore to run the model multiple times and to use the average value of the results. The question then becomes: what is the minimum number of model runs required to reach a stable result? In this paper, systematic experiments are carried out using Forecasting Evolutionary Activity-Travel of Households and their Environmental RepercussionS (FEATHERS), an activity-based micro-simulation modelling framework currently implemented for the Flanders region of Belgium. Six levels of geographic detail are taken into account. Three travel indices – average daily activities per person, average daily trips per person and average daily distance travelled per person, as well as their corresponding segmentations – are calculated by running the model 100 times. The results show that the more disaggregated the level, the larger the number of model runs is needed to ensure confidence. Furthermore, based on the time-dependent origin-destination table derived from the model output, traffic assignment is performed by loading it onto the Flemish road network, and the total vehicle kilometres travelled in the whole Flanders are subsequently computed. The stable results at the Flanders level provides model users with confidence that application of FEATHERS at an aggregated level requires only limited model runs.     

基于模拟退火-自适应布谷鸟算法的城市公交调度优化研究

为改善城市常规公交运营效率,提出基于模拟退火-自适应布谷鸟算法的公交调度优化模型.通过结合线路实际客流数据反映的客流特征,建立考虑公交公司和乘客双方利益的公交调度优化模型;改进布谷鸟算法固定步长并加入模拟退火算法退火操作,设计模拟退火-自适应布谷鸟算法,改善寻优过程中跳出局部最优解而全局寻优的能力;以福州125路公交线...     

铁路钢筋混凝土桥梁裂缝原因分析

裂纹、裂缝是混凝土结构常见的缺陷之一,本文根据铁路桥梁的特点,从荷载、收缩、温度应力及施工控制方面对钢筋混凝土桥梁裂缝产生原因进行了简单分析.     

大型汽车滚装船固定坡道结构分析及优化

针对某大型汽车滚装船在运营过程中一坡道发生较严重裂纹的问题,利用MSC.Patran软件对坡道结构进行细化有限元分析,计算歪斜工况下的屈服强度,分析应力分布情况并对应力不满足的结构进行改进,裂纹发生的位置与细化有限元分析结果一致,表明对汽车滚装船所有坡道结构做细化有限元分析十分必要.     

关于城市轨道交通列车编组形式的探讨

城市轨道交通列车编组形式是确定轨道交通工程规模的重要原则之一。以预测客流量为依据,从行车运营的几个重要指标来分析、比较初期、近期、远期的3个列车编组方案,最后对列车编组方案进行论述,给相关工程提供借鉴。     

关于城轨列车折返能力计算与加强的研究

论证折返出发间隔时间是决定列车折返能力的基本参数,提出折返出发间隔时间计算方法,分析采用特殊列车交路对折返出发间隔时间的影响,并针对影响折返出发间隔时间的因素提出加强列车折返能力的措施。     

水泥混凝土路面裂缝断板成因分析及对策

该文通过对水泥混凝土路面裂缝断板的成因进行分析,提出了对水泥混凝土路面裂缝及断板的预防措施,以期在混凝土路面的施工和养护方面有一定的参考意义。     

水泥混凝土路面断裂原因分析及预防措施

根据我国已建成通车的高等级公路使用情况,从路堤的填筑质量和水泥混凝土路面的设计、施工方面分析水泥混凝土路面开裂破坏的成因,有针对性地提出了相应的预防措施。     

钢筋混凝土桥面铺装裂缝的预防措施

文中主要分析了钢筋混凝土桥面铺装中出现早期裂缝的各种因素,阐述了裂缝的产生及施工过程中的预防措施。     

浅谈水泥稳定碎石基层的开裂原因及预防处理措施

水泥稳定碎石基层因其温缩系数和干缩系数较大,极易产生裂缝,这是水泥碎石基层施工急待解决的问题。分析了水泥稳定碎石基层施工中裂缝产生的原因,提出了预防裂缝产生的措施,并给出上基层出现贯通裂缝的处理方法。最后,以广州白云新机场跑道基层施工为例,介绍了采取裂缝防治措施后的效果。