A model to identify airport hubs and their importance to tourism in Brazil

Air transportation in Brazil has been recently liberalized and one of the consequences of this process is the concentration of flights in a few hubs. During the years 2006-2007 two fatal accidents created unprecedented chaos in both land and air sides of the system with harmful consequences to tourism in Brazil. The consequences were more airport congestion and many episodes of flight delays and cancellations that lasted for several months. We argue that, among other factors, this state of blackout was a result of the increase in the degree of concentration in few airports, particularly Congonhas (in São Paulo) and Brasília. Using data obtained from a survey with Brazilian experts, a comparison was made with two existing methods (the one used by the US Federal Aviation Administration and the usual Herfindahl-Hirschman method) in order to calculate the number of hubs in Brazil. Due to the huge discrepancy obtained between data from the survey and the other two methods considered, a new mathematical method based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index was proposed to identify the number of hubs in a given network. Drawing from the examples of what happened to tourist destinations during and after the air transport crisis in Brazil, the article concludes discussing the need for a more accurate tool to identify and to monitor the concentration of flights at the Brazilian air transportation network and its importance to tourism.     

中海工业面对后危机时代的修船转型升级

文章根据竞争学和战略管理理论,结合中海工业的实际,分析了金融危机对修船业的宏观影响,解剖了企业微观存在的一些结构性问题,阐明了修船企业应对危机必须在转型升级中解题和破题的观点。     

金融危机下国内船舶配套企业营销对策研究

全球性金融危机对国内船舶配套行业产生巨大冲击,国内船舶配套如何走出困境成为普遍关注的问题.在分析金融危机对船舶配套企业影响的基础上,指出了船舶配套企业面临交货难、产能过剩和低价竞争等营销困境,并从市场监控、客户管理、产品组合优化、价格竞争和服务与渠道开拓等五个方面给出了相应的营销对策.     

Cash flow sensitivities during normal and crisis times: Evidence from shipping

Using a system of equations model, we analyze how cash flow shocks influence the investment and financing decisions of shipping firms in different economic environments. Even financially healthy shipping firms felt strong negative effects on their financing activities during the recent crisis. These firms were nevertheless able to increase long-term debt. Banks internalized the impact of foreclosure decisions on vessel prices and avoided an industry-wide collateral channel effect. Even during benign economic conditions, financially weak shipping firms underinvest because of their inability to raise sufficient external capital. The substitution between long- and short-term debt during the pre-2008 crisis periods shows that the composition of financing sources is more indicative of whether firms face financial constraints than the pure size of the financing-cash flow sensitivities. An analysis of firms’ excess cash holdings confirms the importance of financial flexibility.     

How much disruption to activities could fuel shortages cause? – The British fuel crisis of September 2000

In September of 2000 the UK experienced a blockade of oil refineries in response to rising fuel prices. These protests resulted in severe fuel supply disruptions that intensified over the course of about one week. During the peak of the crisis, travel activity by car was curtailed. This paper analyzes survey data collected about two months after the crisis utilizing the recent memory of respondents as to how they would expect this sort of disruption to affect their participation in daily activities. Specifically, we focused on a variety of non-discretionary and discretionary activities and examined what factors are associated with respondents expecting disruption to those activities. Statistical models were developed to analyze how demographic factors, commute mode selection, vehicle characteristics, and various other factors can explain how individuals expect disruption to their activities. Results suggest that the majority of individuals do not expect major disruptions, although for more car-dependent individuals, disruption was expected to be substantial, especially for work-related trips. These results have implications for the potential success and benefits of an integrated transport policy.     

2003年SARS对我国铁路客运量的后影响评价

2003年SARS是高传染性的公众健康危机,我国铁路旅客运输出现严重“滑坡”并蒙受巨大损失。本文依据本底趋势线理论,对此次危机造成铁路客运量损失、危机生命周期及全国28个省市区差异进行了定量分析与估算。结果显示:①2003年SARS共造成铁路客运量损失1.043亿人,占全国客运量总损失的10.22%,相对损失率为9.69%;②2003年3~4月危机开始生成显现,5~6月全面爆发并达到鼎盛,7~10月为衰减恢复期,SARS危机对铁路客运的影响持续8个月;③SARS危机对全国各省份铁路客运量所造成的损失差异较大,其中,北京、辽宁、广东、四川、黑龙江、河北的客运量损失在686万~867万人,江苏、河南、浙江、陕西、吉林、上海、山西的客运量损失在417万~607万人;④剔除青海和广东两省,26个省份铁路客运量损失与客运量基数、SARS确诊人数具有显著的相关性,其中,SARS确诊人数的边际系数为11.4%。     

高校校园危机事件中的心理干预模式研究——以一名精神分裂大学生引发的校园危机事件为例

精神分裂症作为一种重度精神疾病，最近几年逐渐成为高校校园危机事件的重要因素之一。文章通过对一名患有精神分裂症学生的个案研究，讨论了校园危机事件的处理策略，以及如何对受到影响的同学进行及时有效的心理干预，从而为校园危机事件的处理和校园危机管理机制的建立提供参考。     

大学生心理危机引发的思考

做好大学生心理危机的干预工作,是高校辅导员的一项重要任务。本文介绍了心理危机的表现形式、产生的原因以及辅导员在心理危机干预中的角色认知,为我院进行学生心理危机干预提出了一些建议。     

金融危机背景下的返乡农民工情况调查与分析——以南通市为例

文章对南通市的如皋县、海安县的89住返乡农民工进行了走访调查，系统地分析了返乡农民工返乡的理性因素、现实因素及自身因素等方面的原因。针对返乡农民工面临的土地流转、新生代农民工不适应农村生活、再就业和创业难度较大等方面的问题，提出了几点建议。     

“弃船潮”下船厂如何应对弃船风险及防范措施——乳山弃船案和西霞口弃船案的启示

金融危机下,航运市场陷入低迷时期,高峰时期的订单在船东手中成了烫手山芋,弃船事件频发。我国造船业规模虽然位居世界前列,但在国外船东的弃船事件中处于弱势被动地位。＂弃船潮＂给我国造船企业带来严重的经济损失。如何防范弃船事件的发生并采取相应防范措施,本文将进行深入的探讨分析。