Using repeated cross-sectional travel surveys to enhance forecasting robustness: Accounting for changing mode preferences

Transportation system capacity and performance, urban form and socio-demographics define the influences and constraints conditioning the preferences of urban residents for different transport modes. Changes in characteristics of urban areas are likely to lead to changes in preferences for alternative modes of transport over time; as a consequence, statistical models to forecast mode choice need to be sensitive to both purposeful changes to urban systems as well as exogenous shocks. We make use of the 1996, 2001 and 2006 household surveys conducted in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area to study mode preference evolution and model forecasting performance. These repeated cross-sectional household surveys provide an opportunity to investigate aggregate structural changes in commuting mode preferences over time, in a manner sensitive to changes in the urban area. We focus on commuting mode choices because these trips are prime determinants of peak period congestion and peak spreading. We then address how to combine the three cross-sections econometrically in a robust way that allows for use of a single mode choice model across the entire period. Using independent data from 2012, we are able to compare the individual year and combined models in terms of forecasting performance to demonstrate the combined model’s more robust forecasting performance into the future.     

风沙地区铁路选线勘测中应关注的几个问题

风沙地区铁路工程的选线和勘测是铁路修建前期工作中很重要的阶段。结合乌锡线的勘测及施工经历，通过实例总结了风沙地区铁路前期选线中，地质勘察的一般方法和应引起重视的几个问题，使勘测工作能为铁路工程的设计提供可靠资料。     

A new estimation approach for the multiple discrete–continuous probit (MDCP) choice model

This paper develops a blueprint (complete with matrix notation) to apply Bhat’s (2011) Maximum Approximate Composite Marginal Likelihood (MACML) inference approach for the estimation of cross-sectional as well as panel multiple discrete–continuous probit (MDCP) models. A simulation exercise is undertaken to evaluate the ability of the proposed approach to recover parameters from a cross-sectional MDCP model. The results show that the MACML approach does very well in recovering parameters, as well as appears to accurately capture the curvature of the Hessian of the log-likelihood function. The paper also demonstrates the application of the proposed approach through a study of individuals’ recreational (i.e., long distance leisure) choice among alternative destination locations and the number of trips to each recreational destination location, using data drawn from the 2004 to 2005 Michigan statewide household travel survey.     

重要通道公路路线及控制点规划探讨

城市重要道路选线工作应当是由浅到深、由粗到细、由面到线的过程,同时应当综合考虑城市路网规划、技术和规范指标值、自然条件、工程造价等.基于此,结合实践分析公路选线及其道路规划的相应控制点,探讨公路的合理规划设计及值得注意的关键要点,可为同行提供参考借鉴.     

田德铁路小龙煤矿采空区的地质选线

田德铁路位于桂西南右江盆地及岩溶峰林洼地区，其中线路在CIK6＋200-CIK7＋000之间横穿小龙煤矿中部，由于采空区的不断下沉和地表变形，使过境公路及周围建筑物产生了较为严重的病害，线路在小龙村地段存在横穿煤矿方案和绕行方案的比选问题。通过对小龙煤矿采空区地质状况、地表沉降及稳定性的分析与评价，推荐绕行方案（CK方案）为贯通方案。     

6502站继电器采集故障原因分析

本文通过对6502站继电器采集故障原因进行分析，提出用增加复示继电器、缩短电缆长度或采集电缆单独敷设的方法，减少采集故障发生，确保列控中心识别进路信息采集的正确性。     

九景衢铁路主要技术问题研究

研究目的:九景衢铁路是<中长期铁路网规划>中明确的铁路规划项目,对其主要技术问题进行研究,有助于深入认识和梳理项目建设必要性、主要技术标准、建设方案等重大技术问题.研究结论:(1)九景衢铁路具有较强的区域、地方开发性特征,有助于开发沿线旅游资源和矿产资源;(2)主要技术标准需要重点考虑研究年度与未来发展之间需求差异的问题,建议采用单线预留双线条件,速度目标值为160 km/h预留200 km/h条件的主要技术标准;(3)线路走向需结合地形地质条件、经济据点分布、吸引客货流能力、工程投资规模等多因素进行技术经济比选确定.建议九景衢铁路自既有铜九线湖口站接轨,基本并行九景、景婺常高速公路,引入既有景德镇站,经婺源、三清山,利用既有衢常铁路引入浙赣铁路衢州站,线路全长328.09 km.     

城市轨道交通车辆最高运行速度的选择

研究目的:通过对影响列车最高运行速度的几大要素进行分析,寻找轨道交通车辆选型时确定列车最高运行速度等级的一般规律,从而达到节约能源、减少车底数的目的.研究结论:确定城市轨道交通车辆最高运行速度等级时一般以平均车站间距作为首要依据,车站间距约为3.4 km时,推荐选择列车最高运行速度120 km/h;当车站站间距约为2.3 km时,推荐选择列车最高运行速度100 km/h;当车站站间距约为1.5 km时,推荐选择列车最高运行速度80 km/h.     

基于ECDIS的航线评估技术研究

通过对ECDIS航线设计功能的分析,结合舰船海上航行的相关要求和GIS的现有技术,研究了基于ECDIS的航线评估技术,建立了航线评估适用模型,为扩充电子海图系统的空间分析功能,挖掘海洋空间数据中的隐含信息,实现GIS在航海领域中的应用提供了技术支持。     

地铁车辆基地出入线一度停车再起动的平纵断面关系模型

从《地铁设计规范》相关条文规定出发,探讨车辆基地出入线列车一度停车再起动的平纵断面关系;分析列车在停车时、停车后和起动时等三种不同工况的受力情况。根据牵引计算原理,建立其平纵断面关系模型。以长沙市轨道交通2号线西延二期工程为例,计算出入线的最大坡度与最小曲线半径。