舰艇对空作战仿真训练系统中舰炮毁伤效果判定与仿真磁

舰炮毁伤效果判定与仿真是舰艇对空作战系统仿真训练的重要组成部分,它实现了目标对舰炮毁伤效果的反馈,可为作战指挥人员进行作战指挥决策提供目标毁伤信息,为仿真训练职手提供更为真实的仿真训练环境。在简要分析舰艇对空作战仿真训练系统的基础上,重点讨论了基于毁伤概率表及基于碰撞检测的舰炮毁伤判定方法,并简述了对目标毁伤效果的仿真过程。     

基于集合覆盖模型的装备故障诊断方法研究

随着武器装备的不断发展,其结构与组成越来越复杂,机内测试虽然能给出报警,但大多依靠人工经验判断是否为故障,缺乏故障推理机制,一般不能隔离故障。论文以故障测试相关性矩阵为基础,将故障诊断过程归纳为经典的集合覆盖问题,通过快速求解该数学问题,给出故障诊断结果,单故障和双故障实例证明该方法合理有效。     

基于专家系统的反导决策模糊知识库设计*

基于专家系统,分析了模糊知识库的基本原理,提出了舰艇反导辅助决策模糊规则的制定依据,给出了模糊决策规则的建立步骤和方法,构建了模糊决策模型,通过算例验证了基于专家系统的模糊知识库在水面舰艇反导辅助决策方面的可行性和科学性。     

基于多属性群决策层次分析的预防性养护措施决策研究

基于高速公路路面预防性养护决策问题的内涵,将多属性多目标的预防性养护决策整体结构划分为目标层、准则层、指标层和措施层4层。综合考虑预防性养护措施的费用、行车特征、技术因素、施工因素等作为目标层的评价值,并用群决策模型决策来减少主观性因素,得出最佳预防性养护决策措施。最后,结合案例来说明如何制定合理的养护措施。     

基质金属蛋白酶-9和白介素-18在冠心病及糖尿病大血管并发症中的作用

目的探讨基质金属蛋白酶-9(MMP-9)和白介素-18(IL-18)在冠心病及糖尿病大血管并发症中所起的作用。方法选择住院患者181例,分为冠心病组(n=50)、冠心病+糖尿病组(n=50)、糖尿病组(n=50),并设对照组(n=31)。冠心病组、冠心病+糖尿病组随访急性冠脉综合征(ACS)的发生情况,并检测IL-18、MMP-9含量;糖尿病组随访颈部血管内-中膜厚度(IMT),分别于6个月、12个月采血检测IL-18、MMP-9含量。结果 ACS发生后血清IL-18、MMP-9水平显著升高;MMP-9是ACS的独立危险因素(OR=5.19,P=0.014,95%CI 1.396¹9.298),IL-18与ACS的发生关系不明显;MMP-9浓度变化与IMT增量呈正相关(r=0.472,P=0.011,95%CI 0.00819.298),IL-18与ACS的发生关系不明显;MMP-9浓度变化与IMT增量呈正相关(r=0.472,P=0.011,95%CI 0.008⁰.095)。结论 MMP-9参与ACS及糖尿病大血管并发症的发病过程,其含量变化对ACS、糖尿病大血管并发症有一定的预测价值。     

A fault tolerance approach for railway scheduling and train control

This paper makes two contributions. It firstly proposes the use of a fault tolerance approach for railway operations and secondly it develops a minimum time gap matrix model for capacity computation and the study of perturbation effects through the generation of a compressed timetable. A fault tolerance approach is proposed to improve the operational efficiency of the railway network in terms of the network capacity and the robustness of train timetables. The term fault tolerance is used in a broad sense, to represent any abnormalities or unexpected events in operations or equipment. Enhanced fault tolerance capability provides safety assurance so that, in normal operating conditions, trains can adopt much faster speed profiles when approaching a ‘to-be-cleared’ signal block at stations and junctions than those currently permitted, effectively turning the status of ‘be ready to stop’ to that of ‘proceed with caution’. In the rare event of a ‘fault’ in the system, e.g. if a conflicting train fails to move out of a signalling block as expected or a switch fails to operate as required, the train would be re-routed to take an alternative path. In this study, the new approach is developed on three scenarios i.e., a standard classic right turn junction, a terminus station, and a small network combining both of these elements to demonstrate the performance gains, but the concept can be readily extended for other types of junctions/stations. Results so far show great potential in the proposed fault tolerance approach to increase the capacity and enhance operational robustness to perturbations at such locations. A novel method for capacity computation called minimum time gap matrix model is also introduced that has capability to produce compressed timetables directly from a given train sequence.     

基于不确定需求的电动汽车共享系统规划方法

电动汽车共享有助于解决交通拥堵和环境污染问题。为提高电动汽车共享系统效率，保 障系统的可持续性，本文考虑共享需求的不确定性，提出单向电动汽车共享系统最优配置方法。 首先，以多情景处理共享需求的不确定性，以车站和状态集计车辆和调度员，考虑需求价格弹性， 构建共享电动汽车系统配置模型。然后，针对3类共享出行需求价格弹性函数，根据需求为整数 的特点，设计基于割线的外逼策略，提出用于模型求解的外点法。最后，算例证实了考虑共享需 求不确定性的必要性，分析了共享需求方差、弹性以及需求量对共享电动汽车系统利润的影响。 研究结果表明，共享电动汽车系统利润随需求量和需求方差的增加而增加，随需求弹性绝对值的 增加而减少。     

旬邑至汉中铁路建设方案研究

为构建"陕煤入川渝"通道,以旬邑至汉中铁路为研究对象,对其建设方案进行系统研究。首先,基于功能定位、运量预测、主要技术标准等要素,综合考虑主要经济据点及重点控制工程分布情况,分段对线路走向方案进行论证研究。其次,从工程地质、技术条件、环境保护、规划协调等方面系统考虑,采用RT-TOPSIS模型对各分段线路方案进行综合决策,生成各分段最优线路方案。最后,以综合决策结果为基础,对整体线路具体走向进行阐述说明。     

基于分类决策树的城市内部迁居人群通勤时间预测模型

针对迁居个体长距离、长时间的通勤现象，以南京迁居人群通勤出行多源数据为基础，综合考虑迁居人群个人家庭属性、迁居属性、建成环境属性及通勤属性，建立迁居人群通勤时间多元线性回归模型，分析各属性对通勤时间的影响. 结合多元线性回归和Logistic 回归确定决策树模型入选变量和通勤时间离散值，利用C4.5 算法建立迁居人群通勤时间决策树，以决策树结构揭示不同背景下迁居个体通勤时间模式特征. 结果显示，相较于个人家庭属性，职住同区、通勤出发时刻、住房类型、通勤距离、通勤方式及社区至主干道的便捷程度对迁居个体通勤时长的影响更为显著，侧面反映社区微观建成环境优化政策更利于提升迁居个体通勤效率.     

Inferring origin–destination trip matrices from aggregate volumes on groups of links: a case study using volumes inferred from mobile phone data

The origin–destination matrix is an important source of information describing transport demand in a region. Most commonly used methods for matrix estimation use link volumes collected on a subset of links in order to update an existing matrix. Traditional volume data collection methods have significant shortcomings because of the high costs involved and the fact that detectors only provide status information at specified locations in the network. Better matrix estimates can be obtained when information is available about the overall distribution of traffic through time and space. Other existing technologies are not used in matrix estimation methods because they collect volume data aggregated on groups of links, rather than on single links. That is the case of mobile systems. Mobile phones sometimes cannot provide location accuracy for estimating flows on single links but do so on groups of links; in contrast, data can be acquired over a wider coverage without additional costs. This paper presents a methodology adapted to the concept of volume aggregated on groups of links in order to use any available volume data source in traditional matrix estimation methodologies. To calculate volume data, we have used a model that has had promising results in transforming phone call data into traffic movement data. The proposed methodology using vehicle volumes obtained by such a model is applied over a large real network as a case study. The experimental results reveal the efficiency and consistency of the solution proposed, making the alternative attractive for practical applications. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.