Estimation of the determinants of bicycle mode share for the journey to work using census data

A model is presented that relates the proportion of bicycle journeys to work for English and Welsh electoral wards to relevant socio-economic, transport and physical variables. A number of previous studies have exploited existing disaggregate data sets. This study uses UK 2001 census data, is based on a logistic regression model and provides complementary evidence based on aggregate data for the determinants of cycle choice. It suggests a saturation level for bicycle use of 43%. Smaller proportions cycle in wards with more females and higher car ownership. The physical condition of the highway, rainfall and temperature each have an effect on the proportion that cycles to work, but the most significant physical variable is hilliness. The proportion of bicycle route that is off-road is shown to be significant, although it displays a low elasticity (+0.049) and this contrasts with more significant changes usually forecast by models constructed from stated preference based data. Forecasting shows the trend in car ownership has a significant effect on cycle use and offsets the positive effect of the provision of off-road routes for cycle traffic but only in districts that are moderately hilly or hilly. The provision of infrastructure alone appears insufficient to engender higher levels of cycling.

The potential demand for a urban freight consolidation centre

This paper reports the results of a stated-preference study aimed at investigating how transport decisions are made by receivers or by transport operators about the potential use of an urban freight consolidation centre in the city of Fano, Italy. Because there are no revealed preference data, a stated-choice methodology is used. The stated-choice experiments present two alternatives—one using a private vehicle subject to various traffic regulations and one using the urban freight consolidation centre with varying cost and efficiency levels. Conventional discrete choice data modelling shows that the potential demand is influenced mainly by the distance of the parking bay from the shop, by access permit cost, by the service cost of the urban freight consolidation centre, and by the delay in delivery time. Simulations are then performed to assess how the potential demand is affected by various incentives and regulations affecting urban goods distribution.

轨道交通动态票价对城市交通的影响

提出了以交通需求管理中经济杠杆的策略的概念和动态价格经济杠杆策略,实施轨道交通动态票价调节对城市交通影响的研究思路和技术路线.动态票价实施后,利用随机分配理论考察城市路网交通流的重分布变化.在此基础上通过敏感性和博弈分析方法,提出了轨道交通票价均街轨道网、公交网和道路网交通流的思路.轨道交通动态票价体系丰富了城市交通需求管理措施的手段和方法,对制定轨道交通票价有一定的辅助参考作用.     

基于市场信息的销售收入和利润最大化分析探讨——以高速公路经营企业为例

以沪宁高速公路为例,由一般经济学理论延伸到高速公路经营企业,根据相关资料来测定高速公路运输需求的价格弹性系数,并利用数学模型决定最佳的价格调整范围和最佳的价格调整点,可以使高速公路经营企业收费收入增量最大化,以及利润增量和利润最大化。     

双模式的交通拥挤收费模型研究

针对公交车和私家车辆两种交通模式,建立了交通拥挤收费的双层规划模型.在模型的阻抗函数计算中,考虑了两种模式之间相互影响及其车载能力的差异.以总体出行成本最小为目标建立上层模型、以用户最优的交通配流模型作为下层模型,出行模式的选择满足Logit模型.通过"对角化"算法直接搜索满足路径选择/模式选择的下层交通配流模型均衡解.通过步长加速和惩罚函数法对这个双层规划模型进行求解,最后给出了算例.     

黑龙江省农村金融有效供给机制现状及对策

长期以来,我国农村金融改革和发展相对缓慢,成为制约农村经济发展和农民生活水平提高的重要因素。目前,城市流动性过剩愈演愈烈,资金供应非常充裕,而农村地区资金需求缺口巨大,缺乏引导资金流向农村的有效渠道。分析农村金融供给体系存在的问题,探讨建立与农村金融需求相适应的长效供给机制具有十分重要意义。     

综合运输体系技术经济特征分析

为了加快综合运输体系的建设,实现各种运输方式的协调发展。在现有理论基础上,分析了各种运输方式的静态技术经济特征,并提出了在特定需求规律下,结合特定的运用条件,分析运输方式可实现的动态技术经济特征,体现物量均衡和经济均衡的有机统一。     

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为了准确地反映城市交通网络布局、人口分布和职业分布等因素与交通行为之间的相互影响机制,同时考虑到发展中城市交通调查数据的完整性和准确性相对较差,首先建立了一种新的交通需求反馈模型,并对其进行改进,进而形成了一种新型集成模型。通过基于同一套发展中城市交通调查数据对不同模型进行参数标定以及对标定结果进行比较分析,本文得出结论：与被广泛应用的传统四阶段模型相比较,新的反馈和集成模型的标定结果的准确性有了明显提高。随后,根据新型集成模型的标定结果,本文又以富有代表性的发展中城市区域,即印度尼西亚的雅加达首都城市圈作为研究对象,对该区域将来的城市和交通可持续发展政策进行了探究。研究结果表明：随着对城市人口增长的控制、城市道路的建设、公共交通设施的不断完善,多副都心发展模式将成为该地区未来可持续发展的城市形态。     

城市路网容量约束下的机动车发展规模研究

研究与一个城市道路网络发展规模相适应的机动车辆拥有规模对解决日益严重的城市交通问题具有重要意义.给出了城市路网容量和路网服务水平的概念,建立了路网容量计算模型,得到城市路网容量约束下的城市机动车发展规模的确定方法,为城市机动车需求管理提供了理论支撑.研究方法在确定2010年、2020年重庆市主城区机动车的合理发展规模中得到应用。     

Deciding whether and how to improve statewide travel demand models based on transportation planning application needs

Many states in the USA have developed statewide travel demand models for transportation planning at the state level and along intercity corridors. Travel demand models at mega-region and provincial levels are also widely used in Europe and Asia. With modern transportation planning applications requiring enhanced model capabilities, many states are considering improving their four-step statewide demand models. This paper synthesizes representative statewide models developed with traditional four-step, advanced four-step, and integrated micro-simulation methods. The focus of this synthesis study is as much on model applications and data requirements as on modeling methods. An incremental model improvement approach toward advanced statewide models is recommended. Review findings also suggest model improvement activities should be justified by planning application needs. For statewide model improvement plans to be successful and financially sustainable, the return on model improvement investment needs to be demonstrated by timely applications that rely on improved model capabilities.