Testing the limits of TSM: the 1984 Los Angeles Summer Olympics

This paper analyzes the impact of the transportation system management (TSM) program employed during the 1984 Los Angeles Summer Olympics. Two issues are examined. First, the impact of the various elements of the TSM program on transportation system performance is measured by conducting a series of traffic simulation studies. The results show that TSM was an important contributing factor in the favorable traffic conditions experienced during the Olympics. Second, the potential of employing TSM as a long-term transportation policy strategy is assessed. It is concluded that the travel behavior changes that occurred in response to the TSM program were unique and short-term. Under ordinary circumstances, incentives do not exist to induce changes of the magnitude observed during the Olympics.     

Integrating parking behaviour in activity-based travel demand modelling: Investigation of the relationship between parking type choice and activity scheduling process

Traditionally, the parking choice/option is considered to be an important factor in only in the mode choice component of a four-stage travel demand modelling system. However, travel demand modelling has been undergoing a paradigm shift from the traditional trip-based approach to an activity-based approach. The activity-based approach is intended to capture the influences of different policy variables at various stages of activity-travel decision making processes. Parking is a key policy variable that captures land use and transportation interactions in urban areas. It is important that the influences of parking choice on activity scheduling behaviour be identified fully. This paper investigates this issue using a sample data set collected in Montreal, Canada. Parking type choice and activity scheduling decision (start time choice) are modelled jointly in order to identify the effects of parking type choice on activity scheduling behaviour. Empirical investigation gives strong evidence that parking type choice influences activity scheduling process. The empirical findings of this investigation challenge the validity of the traditional conception which considers parking choice as exogenous variable only in the mode choice component of travel demand models.     

Car ownership and public transport use: Revisiting the interaction

At the beginning of the 1980s, it seemed that a consensus was emerging among researchers that public transport service levels, fares or quality had a small but possibly important effect on car ownership, and that this should be taken into account for those purposes where car ownership forecasts are used for developing policy on public transport or roads. Somehow, the findings faded away, and had little effect on policy thinking or on analytical techniques. The results of six surveys carried out in South Yorkshire over the period 1972 to 1991, during which there were extreme changes in public transport policy, tend to support a prima facie case for reopening the question. At the household level, car ownership rates are shown to be more volatile than is often assumed, especially in multiple car households. This volatility provides a context within which the quality of public transport provision appears to influence both the level of car ownership and the relationship between changes in the level of car ownership and changes in public transport use.     

运输需求与运输系统服务水平的平衡趋势分析

本文分析了运输需求与运输供给，构造了运输需求与运输系统服务水平的平衡模型，通过分析平衡条件以及平衡趋势的实现、不平衡状态的干预等，获得了平衡条件的实际意义、不平衡状态干预的手段，据此针对现行运输系统规划及运输组织提出了两点看法：一是认清未来运输量的构成，二是采取可行措施保持运输系统的正常运转。     

Dealing with congestion from a regional perspective The case of Massachusetts

Traffic congestion has received considerable public and media attention over the past several years. However, many of the transportation and land use actions offered to deal with the congestion phenomenon focus only on a specific site or at most a subregion of the metropolitan area. This paper argues that congestion in many cases is an areawide phenomenon requiring consideration from a regional and programmatic viewpoint. A ten-point congestion-relief program developed for eastern Massachusetts is described. Actions in this program included those aimed to mitigate current congestion and avoid future congestion through land use management. Four policy areas are emphasized - providing transportation system improvements, managing transportation demand, managing land use, and managing the institutional and funding framework. The paper concludes that because of the political nature of the congestion problem, the congestion-relief program's importance lies more in the message it sends to the public that programmatic action is being taken. The paper also concludes that a regional approach is necessary thus requiring close examination of existing institutions, that demand management is an important component of the strategy, that the private sector has an important role to play, and that the long-term effectiveness of the program relates to the success of attempts to institutionalize efforts into zoning and permit procedures.     

Formulating a methodology for modelling revealed preference discrete choice data-the selectively replicated logit estimation

There are a number of studies on modelling with Revealed Preference (RP) data. It is a traditional technique and it is based on actual market data. The method has been extensively used in transportation as a tool for predicting travel demand. Although the method constitutes a relevant analysis on the process of modelling, it suffers from limitations, mainly associated with the lack of control over the experiment, that sometimes overwhelm the model results. This work proposes and tests a methodology for estimating a more efficient binary RP sample set. The objective is to develop and test a methodology that identifies and eliminates potentially irrational choices made. Responses are evaluated according to the set of trade-offs in values of time. Having identified these individuals they are eliminated from the original sample and a new sample is created, the selectively replicated (SR) sample. Original and SR samples are then re-estimated in a tree nested logit structure.     

城轨线网规划中对铁路公交化功能定位的思考

利用铁路为城市提供公交化客运服务一直是很多城市的想法,2017年6月20日国家发展改革委发布《关于促进市域(郊)铁路发展的指导意见》,提出大力发展市域(郊)铁路,更从国家部委层面对此提出新的要求。从城市轨道交通规划角度出发,提出铁路公交化选择中应从分析交通需求特征和供给服务水平入手,明确铁路公交化项目在城市轨道交通全网中的功能定位,从时间、空间、发展预期3个维度,统筹分析铁路公交化能不能利用、怎么利用、能利用多久,从而在规划层面保证铁路公交化的可持续发展。     

从供需角度分析城市轨道交通相关规划的编制

作为轨道交通工程项目获批建设的前提,编制好城市轨道交通线网规划和建设规划显得愈发重要。在总结工作经验的基础上,提出一种从供需分析角度来理解城市轨道交通相关规划的编制方法。提出规划编制的需求分析和供给策略两大模块,对两大模块应该包含的二级模块进行说明,指出各模块应该包含的主要内容,对核心内容进行重点说明,期望用化繁为简的方式对城市轨道交通相关规划编制的方法进行论述,为行业谋求一个更舒适的编制环境,并指出目前影响城市轨道交通相关规划编制的其他因素,以供同行业者参考。     

考虑旅客需求的停站方案与列车运行图一体化模型与算法

考虑高速铁路旅客出行的时空敏感性较高的特点,将旅客运输状态引入运输时空网络,构建三维的时间-空间-状态网络,提出基于旅客需求的停站方案与列车运行图综合优化0-1整数规划模型,实现旅客分配、停站方案与列车运行图编制的一体化。设计拉格朗日松弛求解算法,将复杂的列车间强耦合问题分解为单列车的最短路径子问题集合,从而降低模型求解难度。以京沪高铁北京南-曲阜东区段为背景进行验证和分析,结果表明模型不仅实现了较低的运营成本,还能够有效满足旅客需求,实现客流分配、停站方案与列车运行图编制的有机联动。     

兰新铁路通道运输格局优化研究

研究兰新铁路通道运输格局,可为高效配置兰新铁路通道运力资源、优化其运输组织与运营管理、确定兰新线扩能改造方案等提供决策参考,可为"打赢蓝天保卫战"和"铁路北煤南运体系建设"背景下的新疆煤炭铁路外运提供运力保障。首先利用产运销平衡法、四阶段法等预测兰新铁路通道运输需求,即2020年兰新线嘉峪关至安北段货运密度6 004万t/年、客车32对/d;其次考虑运输需求、运输效率等因素,比选确定最优兰新铁路通道运输格局,即兰新线以货运功能为主、承担少部分长途普速客运,兰新高铁以高铁客流为主、承担大部分普速客运功能;最后提出兰新铁路通道运输格局优化策略,包括将兰新线的部分普速客车转移至兰新高铁、优化嘉峪关地区车站布局以协调兰新线点线能力、为兰新高铁开发动卧等新型运输服务产品等。