Modelling passenger demand for parkway rail stations

Interest in Parkway stations emerged in the 1980s. These act as convenient out-of-town stations for inter-urban rail journeys. There were 13 so-called Parkway stations in Great Britain in 1999 and two have subsequently been opened. This paper reports the development and application of a new Parkway forecasting model which was conducted for the Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC), undertaken as part of an extensive update to the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook, which recommends demand forecasting frameworks and associated parameters that are widely used in the railway industry in Great Britain. The objective was to develop a model that had more desirable properties and was more straightforward to apply than the previously recommended procedure. The focus is entirely upon inter-urban journeys of over 80 km.The model forecasts the demand for Parkway stations based solely on rail ticket sales data and its properties are illustrated with two case study applications. The nature of Parkway stations forces consideration of competition, and it is demonstrated that the inclusion of a station choice component leads to a somewhat improved explanatory power and a more plausible generalised cost elasticity.In addition to the methodological developments, the model has provided generally reasonable elasticities and forecasts and shown that Parkway users have different preferences to rail travellers in general. In a test based around a newly opened Parkway station, its forecasts are more accurate than the procedure it replaces.     

Space,money, life-stage,and the allocation of time

Demographic, socioeconomic, seasonal, and scheduling factors affect the allocation of time to various activities. This paper examines those variables through exploration of the 1990 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey, which has been inverted to track activity duration. Two key issues are considered. First, how much can activity duration and frequency explain travel duration? The analysis shows activity duration has positive and significant effects on travel duration, supporting recent arguments in favor of activity based models. Second, which recent trend is the main culprit in the rise in travel: suburbanization, rising personal incomes, or female labor force participation? This paper examines the share of time within a 24-hour budget allocated to several primary activities: home, work, shop, and other. The data suggest that income and location have modest effects on time allocation compared with the loss of discretionary time due to working.

     

What does a one-month free bus ticket do to habitual drivers? An experimental analysis of habit and attitude change

The aim of this study was to investigate whether a temporary structural change would induce a lasting increase in drivers' public transport use. An experiment targeting 43 drivers was carried out, in which a one-month free bus ticket was given to 23 drivers in an experimental group but not to 20 drivers in a control group. Attitudes toward, habits of, and frequency of using automobile and bus were measured immediately before, immediately after, and one month after the one-month long intervention. The results showed that attitudes toward bus were more positive and that the frequency of bus use increased, whereas the habits of using automobile decreased from before the intervention, even one month after the intervention period. Furthermore, the increase in habitual bus use had the largest effect on the increase in the frequency of bus use. The results suggest that a temporary structural change, such as offering auto drivers a temporary free bus ticket, may be an important travel demand management tool for converting automotive travel demand to public-transport travel demand.     

铁路客运需求弹性分析与营销对策

旅客的需求是保持和推动运输企业生存和发展的动力．如何提高市场占有率,增加需求量(客运量)就成了运输企业营销的首要问题．本文试图引用"需求弹性"理论,对我国铁路客运进行实绩分析,提出相应的营销对策     

一种新型微砂沉淀处理工艺在河道水处理中的应用

将微砂高效沉淀处理工艺应用于上海某河道水处理中。该套微砂沉淀处理装置采用一体化处理工艺,主要包括混凝区、絮凝熟化区、沉淀区和微砂循环与分离系统四个组成部分。工程中采用2套微砂沉淀处理装置,总处理规模2万m3/d。实现结果表明,该种新型微砂沉淀处理对河道水处理的效果是明显的。在实验观察的时间段内,COD、氨氮和TP的去除效果分别达到27.5%、58.8%和42.5%。然而,氨氮的去除很可能伴随着硝态氮的产生,对总氮的去除增益不大。     

区域快轨网需求特征及主要技术参数研究

随着北京城乡一体化及京津冀一体化的发展,北京中心城区与郊区新城、近京部分地区的联系日益加强,迫切需要服务范围更广、运行速度更快的区域轨道交通系统。通过发展需求及技术特征分析,明确区域快轨发展的必要性、不可替代性及技术独特性,并基于区域快轨的城市性特点,从满足区域快轨网客流需求、体现区域快轨网技术特征、实现区域快轨网互联互通等需求出发,提出车辆、供电、信号、限界专业的主要技术参数。     

时变需求下医药供应链多药品联合补货策略研究

医药供应链是一个极其复杂的过程.以大型医药连锁超市的多药品订购问题为背景,在变质库存理论的基础上,将供应链协调机制引入医药库存理论研究,研究了时变需求下具有提前期的同一供应商向医药超市零售商不同专柜供货的库存订购策略模型.并通过计算机仿真,得到了多种药品订购的近似最优策略.最后,时理论进行了实证分析及灵敏度分析.结果表...     

关于城市轨道交通线路合理长度的讨论

我国城市轨道交通线网的规划建设中出现了一些长度超过50km的超长线,以及分期工程初期线路长度较短的线路,这些线路在运营时可能会暴露出一些问题。从需求特征出发,分别对超长线和较短线存在的问题进行分析。如果线路超长,各线段的需求特征、功能定位和客流量级有较大区别,给线路的系统选型、运营组织均带来困难。而较短线不能满足出行需求,将使客流量和运营效益受到很大影响。最后提出一般情况下城市轨道交通线路长度在15～35km较为合理的建议。     

基于关键客流密度选择支路公交运营模式的方法

公交支线采用灵活式运营模式,可以通过接驳点将所服务区与交通网连接起来,为乘客提供更有效快捷的运行方式.但在实际的设计和运营过程中,往往很难选择运用何种模式更合适.鉴于此,提出公交运营模式选择模型以协助决策者做出更合理的选择.采用连续近似方法估算关键需求密度,通过分析单车辆和双车辆情况下的运营参数,比较模拟生成的值,验证分析建模方法的有效性.     

市域铁路与城市地铁共站换乘模式分析

依据换乘站点的规模与客流之间的相互影响关系,将市域铁路与城市地铁共站换乘方式分为单点、两点和多点三种类型.重点对各共站换乘方式的方向梯度、时间梯度、可达性梯度、费用梯度等进行抽象分析,构建共站节点需求双对数模型并进行回归分析,并引用实例对模型进行验证.