SPJ900/32架桥机快速区间转场技术研究

对SPJ900/32架桥机调头作业进行分析和技术改进,介绍了桥梁、路基交互时的区间转场工艺流程和操作要点。     

On finite sample performance of confidence intervals methods for willingness to pay measures

This paper systematically compares finite sample performances of methods to build confidence intervals for willingness to pay measures in a choice modeling context. It contributes to the field by also considering methods developed in other research fields. Various scenarios are evaluated under an extensive Monte Carlo study. Results show that the commonly used Delta method, producing symmetric intervals around the point estimate, often fails to account for skewness in the estimated willingness to pay distribution. Both the Fieller method and the likelihood ratio test inversion method produce more realistic confidence intervals for small samples. Some bootstrap methods also perform reasonably well, in terms of effective coverage. Finally, empirical data are used to illustrate an application of the methods considered.     

Quantifying uncertainty in short-term traffic prediction and its application to optimal staffing plan development

In this paper, we aim to quantify uncertainty in short-term traffic volume prediction by enhancing a hybrid machine learning model based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) neural network. Different from the previous studies, the PSO-ELM models require no statistical inference nor distribution assumption of the model parameters, but rather focus on generating the prediction intervals (PIs) that can minimize a multi-objective function which considers two criteria, reliability and interval sharpness. The improved PSO-ELM models are developed for an hourly border crossing traffic dataset and compared to: (1) the original PSO-ELMs; (2) two state of the art models proposed by Zhang et al. (2014) and Guo et al. (2014) separately; and (3) the traditional ARMA and Kalman filter models. The results show that the improved PSO-ELM can always keep the mean PI length the lowest, and guarantee that the PI coverage probability is higher than the corresponding PI nominal confidence, regardless of the confidence level assumed. The study also probes the reasons that led to a few points being not covered by the PIs of PSO-ELMs. Finally, the study proposes a comprehensive optimization framework to make staffing plans for border crossing authority based on bounds of PIs and point predictions. The results show that for holidays, the staffing plans based on PI upper bounds generated much lower total system costs, and that those plans derived from PI upper bounds of the improved PSO-ELM models, are capable of producing the lowest average waiting times at the border. For a weekday or a typical Monday, the workforce plans based on point predictions from Zhang et al. (2014) and Guo et al. (2014) models generated the smallest system costs with low border crossing delays. Moreover, for both holiday and normal Monday scenarios, if the border crossing authority lacked the required staff to implement the plans based on PI upper bounds or point predictions, the staffing plans based on PI lower bounds from the improved PSO-ELMs performed the best, with an acceptable level of service and total system costs close to the point prediction plans.     

车道偏离预警算法研究

为提高车辆行驶的主动安全性,文章根据车辆偏离速度将TLC算法和FOD算法相结合,针对车道偏离预警系统提出了多模式车道偏离预警算法,并搭建Simulink模型,结合Carsim进行联合仿真实验。仿真结果表明,提出的算法能更好的进行车道偏离预警。     

Infrastructure based approach for roadway departure risk assessment

This paper presents a warning device to prevent the roadway departure of light vehicles while cornering. The proposed risk assessment methodology is based on recent works from the authors (Rey et al., 2011b,a; Rey, 2010). Given the random variability arising from the driver, the vehicle and the infrastructure at the entrance to the curve, a probabilistic strategy is adopted to assess the roadway departure risk. The infrastructure-based methodology enables the real curve characteristics to be considered and an alarm triggering decision to be made. Two safety criteria are tested and the potential safety benefits of the proposed warning device are evaluated. Contrary to existing roadway departure warning systems, the proposed approach does not require extra equipment for vehicles; it only requires that the measuring and warning devices be part of the road infrastructure, which is a great advantage in terms of economic cost.     

自由飞行环境中飞机对导弹的规避方法*

在当今空战情况下,导弹对于飞机的威胁愈发增长。为避免发生飞行冲突,需要飞机驾驶员适当改变航行诸元,但是由于导弹的速度在一般情况下远远大于飞机速度,且发现时双方距离较近,留给驾驶员的反应与操作时间较少。文章采用速度矢量三角形分析法,在二维平面上分析了飞机对于导弹的规避方法,提出了综合调整航向和航速冲突的方法。     

天津地铁6号线双线平行盾构隧道施工间隔对地表土体变形影响研究

研究双线盾构隧道在不同施工间隔下施工时地表的变形规律,对控制地表整体变形及不均匀变形十分重要。依托天津地铁6号线双线盾构隧道下穿天津西站站场实际工程实例,以铁路线设施的关键变形控制指标为评判依据,研究盾构左右线不同施工间隔下的地表变形分布特性,对比分析间隔距离与地表沉降和不均匀沉降的关系,为双线盾构隧道工程选择合适的施工间隔提供依据,以保证工程安全及地表铁路设施的正常运行。结果表明,不同施工间隔的影响主要表现为掘进过程对地表土体变形的扰动程度及扰动范围的明显差异:对于地表沉降变形而言,施工间隔越小,掌子面处地表土体沉降越快,且左线完全先行时,地表土体的纵向变形范围约为20 m,相较两洞同时施工时变形范围减小约25 m;对于地表不均匀变形而言,左线完全先行施工条件下,地表轨向变形、水平变形、轨距变形最大分别约为1、0.6、0.2 mm,相较两洞同时施工时分别减小0.8、0.2、0.15 mm。因此,对于双线盾构隧道而言,两洞同时施工时最不利于地表变形的控制,而一条隧道完全先行掘进的方案最有利于地表变形的控制。     

盾构穿越对圆形风井结构的变形内力影响分析——以南京纬三路过江通道工程盾构穿越梅子洲风井为例

盾构进出工作井是盾构安全施工的关键。以南京市纬三路过江通道工程梅子洲圆形风井盾构穿越为研究背景,建立复杂的大型三维计算模型,对盾构穿越区域采用实体单元模拟、土弹簧释放开挖荷载的特殊模拟方法,首先对盾构破除素混凝土强度的选取进行优化分析,建议采用C15混凝土,既能减小盾构穿越施工的难度,又能保证围护结构的安全稳定;然后对盾构穿越前后风井地连墙、内衬墙和冠梁等重要围护结构的变形和内力变化规律进行了研究分析,盾构穿越前后,地连墙的变形和内力变化很大,最大增幅分别为45%和228%,内衬墙的环向弯矩和竖向最大正弯矩均存在较大变化,环向弯矩最大增幅200%,竖向弯矩最大增幅54%,冠梁的最大环向弯矩变化很大,最大增幅为1 160%。因此,工程设计时应对地连墙、内衬墙和冠梁内力较大区域加强配筋,以保证盾构安全顺利地通过。     

基于附着系数曲线封闭面积的路面识别研究

以滑移率区间[0,0.16]上附着系数曲线的封闭面积作为参数指标,在Burckhardt轮胎—路面模型的基础上设计了7种典型路面的识别区间,据此在制动时完成路面识别。使用制动单轮模型进行了仿真试验,结果表明:该方法只需一次判定即可完成识别,识别快速准确,能充分利用不同路面的附着条件,提高车辆的制动效能。     

基于Kriging代理模型的高速列车悬挂参数的区间优化

针对高速列车悬挂设计参数难以选定的问题,提出一种基于Kriging代理模型的高速列车悬挂参数区间优化的方法.采用拉丁超立方试验设计方法确定仿真数据样本得到动力学仿真数据,利用偏最小二乘方法确定影响脱轨系数的主要悬挂参数,进而建立基于设计参数与仿真数据Kriging代理模型,以此模型实现悬挂参数区间优化.最后以CRH某型动车组悬挂参数为例进行了验证性优化分析,结果表明该方法正确可行.