巴黎公共自行车租赁点规划设计

总结了巴黎公共自行车租赁点规划中采用的出行需求预测方法,规划在分区基础上,根据居住人口、就业岗位、商业和设施4种类型,测算各区日均出行次数,进而确定公共自行车租赁点数量及自行车规模。阐述了租赁点定位的影响因素、定位方法及布设原则。详细分析了租赁点的布设方式,明确路边租赁点、人行道上的租赁点和行道树附近租赁点的布设要点,对自行车、停车桩、服务终端等设施也提出了相关要求。最后,在巴黎经验基础上指出,我国部分城市提出的“解决公交出行最后一公里”的公共自行车系统单一功能定位,不利于租赁点的合理布局;租赁点主要布设在人行道的做法也会引发新的交通问题。     

血液酒精浓度对驾驶行为的影响研究

为了探讨饮酒对驾驶员驾驶行为的影响,以驾驶模拟器为平台,测试了13名驾驶人员在不同血液酒精浓度（0mg/dl,20mg/dl,50 mg/dl,80 mg/dl）、不同场景下加速、刹车情况并调查了其主观感受。进行数据分析后初步得到一些结论：饮酒（特别是在较高血液酒精浓度的情况下）确实会对驾驶行为产生影响并可能会导致某些危险驾驶行为;性别和驾驶经验也会对不同酒精浓度下的驾驶行为产生影响。     

舰船电子元器件自主可控现状与发展需求研究

近年来,我国信息化关键软硬件技术得到了长足发展,特别是基础电子元器件性能有了大幅度提升.然而,在信息化相关的电子元器件技术和产品上与国外还存在较大差距,制约了装备的国产化率和自主可控能力水平的进一步提升.本文分析舰船装备领域基础电子元器件的发展现状,并提出下一步的发展需求建议以及确保基础电子元器件自主可控的具体措施.     

Asymmetry in transport fuel demand: Evidence from household level data

Models for gasoline demand for transportation activities generally assume that demand is perfectly reversible with respect to gasoline price (and income). The small literature which relaxes the reversibility assumption in gasoline demand argues technological fixation leads to this asymmetry and utilizes aggregate time-series model to find evidence in favour of asymmetry. In this research it is suggested that there could also be behavioural factors behind this asymmetric response, possibly due to the loss aversion nature of human beings as described in the prospect theory. For the first time, household level data was used to understand asymmetry in gasoline demand in response to changes in gasoline price and income. There was statistical evidence that gasoline price and income both can induce asymmetric changes in gasoline demand among households. Specifically, elasticity with respect to rising prices and falling income is larger than the elasticity with respect to falling prices and rising income respectively, which is consistent with loss aversion in gasoline purchase behaviour. There was also some evidence of heterogeneity in the asymmetric responses between urban and rural households. The results have implications for transport-related energy tax policies or subsidies, while the method can be applied directly for non-energy goods as well.     

Tradable credits for managing car travel: a review of empirical research and relevant behavioural approaches

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in Tradable Credits (TC) as an alternative measure to manage the growth of personal car use. This paper summarises the results and methodologies of studies that have sought to anticipate the behavioural responses to several proposed TC schemes that target personal travel. In a critical reflection on this work and in an attempt to inspire future research, we argue that future empirical studies on TC behaviours can greatly benefit from insights from the fields of behavioural economics and cognitive psychology. Therefore, in the second part of the paper, we bring together behavioural concepts from these fields that are relevant in a TC decision-making context. Based on observations from current TC studies and the behavioural mechanisms identified in the second part of the paper, we propose promising directions for future research on understanding the impact of TC on personal car travel.     

Long-term impact of the Shinkansen on rail and air demand: analysis with data from Northeast Japan

This paper analyses how the high-speed rail construction in Northeast Japan (Tohoku) has affected total demand and interregional travel patterns. We use annual interregional passenger data from 1989 to 2012 and apply regression analysis with the demand between Tokyo and the Tohoku prefectures as the dependent variable. We distinguish particularly between the ‘Full-’ and the ‘Mini-’ Shinkansen, where the latter are branch services running with reduced speed. We find that the ‘Full-Shinkansen’ quickly increases rail and total public transport trips and generates additional rail demand year on year. The ‘Mini-Shinkansen’ impacts are less pronounced. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the Shinkansen has shifted some demand from air to rail once it started operation and increased rail share gradually. We therefore suggest that predictions of demand impacts should carefully distinguish immediate from gradual impacts. We also discuss differences in regional demand in that not all prefectures have gained equally from Shinkansen construction.     

机车自动驾驶系统模式切换策略研究

受铁路基础装备技术和国内复杂运用环境限制,机车自动驾驶系统仍需在有人值守的情况下工作,所以应有完善的自动驾驶系统模式切换策略来界定值守人员和自动驾驶的权限边界。以机车运行安全为原则,基于列车纵向动力学分析动态切换时列车的平稳性,阐述了机车自动驾驶系统的模式切换策略,该策略已经运用于机车自动驾驶实际应用中。大量实践案例证明,提出的机车自动驾驶模式切换策略能够有效保证机车控制权模式切换过程中列车的安全、平稳运行,取得了良好的运行效果。     

基于神经网络的道路通行能力与交通需求匹配度判别研究

交通的供需是否匹配关系到城市和枢纽的发展前景。文中在探讨道路通行能力与需求匹配特性的基础上,用BP神经网络理论建立一种交通匹配预测模型。该模型发挥神经网络的优势,对数据并行处理和分布存储,通过训练、学习产生一个非线性映射,自适应地对数据进行预测。通过相关数据实验证明,该神经网络模型有较高的精度,并有较好的适用性。     

基于寿命分布的备件需求计算模型分析

根据指数分布、正态分布和威布尔分布的寿命分布类型,对航海装备的一些维修备件进行分类,并提出了在满足备件保障度下这三种寿命分布类型备件的需求计算模型,对一些备件需求预测实例进行了预测计算。     

确定性联合补充库存问题的EXCEL规划求解法

提出求解确定性联合补充库存问题的新方法——EXCEL规划求解法：通过数学运算将非线性混合整数规划模型转化为整数线性规划模型,然后在EXCEL中通过“规划求解”工具求最优解．通过算例验证,结果表明该方法不但能有效解决此类问题,而且更简单、更直观、更实用．