A mixed logit model for predicting exit choice during building evacuations

Knowledge on human behaviour in emergency is crucial to increase the safety of buildings and transportation systems. Decision making during evacuations implies different choices, of which one of the most important concerns is the escape route. The choice of a route may involve local decisions on alternative exits from an enclosed environment. This study investigates the effect of environmental (presence of smoke, emergency lighting and distance of exit) and social factors (interaction with evacuees close to the exits and with those near the decision-maker) on local exit choice. This goal is pursued using an online stated preference survey carried out making use of non-immersive virtual reality. A sample of 1503 participants is obtained and a mixed logit model is calibrated using these data. The model shows that the presence of smoke, emergency lighting, distance of exit, number of evacuees near the exits and the decision-maker and flow of evacuees through the exits significantly affect local exit choice. Moreover, the model indicates that decision making is affected by a high degree of behavioural uncertainty. Our findings support the improvement of evacuation models and the accuracy of their results, which can assist in designing and managing building and transportation systems. The main aim of this study is to enrich the understanding of how local exit choices are made and how behavioural uncertainty affects these choices.     

交-直-交传动内燃机车的技术经济效果

文章阐明了交—直—交传动内燃机车优越的技术性能和经济效果。并对东风_4内燃机车改为交—直—交传动后的经济性进行了估算,结果表明,交—直—交传动内燃机车经济效果显著,仅节油一项,就可在5年内将比交—直传动内燃机车增加的成本全部回收。     

加强供应链管理 构建节约型社会

以我国能源短缺为切入点,认为实施供应链管理可以使企业降低成本、创造竞争的整体优势,实现供求间的良好合作,为建设循环经济奠定基础。以实例说明了供应链管理给企业带来的显著经济效益。最后指出开展供应链管理对构建节约型社会、实现经济的可持续发展有重大意义。     

存储场地有限制的经济订购模型的一种优化方法

对于采购资金和存储场地等有一定限制条件的经济订购模型,目前一般采用拉格朗日乘子法求解.本文用可行方向法运用计算机求解存储场地有限制的订购模型.该方法具有结果精确、运算速度快、适应多种限制条件的存储问题等特点,比拉格朗日乘子法适应面广.     

基于遗传支持向量机的综合管廊土建工程造价估算方法研究

综合管廊工程造价估算具有影响因素多、小样本及非线性的特点,传统的造价估算方法对于这类问题无法得到准确结果。针对这一问题,提出一种基于遗传支持向量机的综合管廊造价估算模型。分析综合管廊工程的具体特征,运用支持向量机建立工程造价与影响因子之间的非线性映射关系,利用遗传算法对支持向量机进行参数优化并对综合管廊的工程造价进行估算。以16条已建综合管廊工程作为数据库样本,对该模型进行分析验证。样本测试结果显示,利用该模型可将估算误差控制在10%以内,验证了模型估算的可行性。     

运行中市政管廊隧道的维修加固

我国早期浅埋暗挖市政管廊隧道标准较低,目前病害多发。为了治理断面狭小、内部净空限界要求不高的市政管廊隧道的病害,结合大连某电缆隧道维修加固工程,采用病害检测及分析、方案综合比选和施工实践的方法,介绍暗挖市政管廊隧道的维修加固过程。得出主要结论如下： 隧道病害检测应从结构变形、衬砌强度、衬砌背后、裂缝及渗漏水等方面详细调查,分析病害成因,评定劣化等级; 通过检测分析结构,选择合理的结构加固措施,劣化严重的市政管廊隧道应优先选择增设内衬的维修改造方案; 施工阶段应重点处理好无水施工、对既有结构和内部管线的保护和在狭小空间施工的问题。     

基于Shapley值法的港口冷链物流投资分析方法

从客户的角度出发,旨在建立一套与投资额度、客户满意程度相关联的港口冷链物流投资分析方法,为决策者在财务分析之外提供另一个分析视角。将港口冷链物流划分为冷藏存储、冷藏加工、冷藏运输、客户服务4个环节。首先利用层次分析法确定各个环节在整条供应链的权重,然后引入效用理论确定各个环节投资产生的效用,通过Shapley值法实现了各个环节在整条供应链权重和各个环节投资效用的有机结合,使得发展瓶颈随投资的变动而改变,从而更加符合实际情况。通过实例分析,此方法能够充分考虑投资效用的影响,也能够减少专家打分等定性方法产生的主观偏差。     

普通公路隧道LED节约型照明设计

从分析普通公路隧道的特点和实际照明需求入手,提出LED节约型照明系统的概念。通过对照明光源的分析比较,选定LED灯并提出该系统的设计要点,并通过具体工程案例,分析验证该系统应用的有效性和推广价值。     

Identifying preferences for public transport investments under a constrained budget

As urban areas face increasing demands for new transport infrastructure to promote a sustainable future with an increasing reality of constrained government budgets, the debate on whether we should focus on rail or bus-based investments continues unabated in many jurisdictions. Associated with the debate is an emotional (or ideological) bias by communities in favour of one mode, especially rail, which carries much sway at the political level as if there is no budget constraint. This paper presents a stated choice experiment to investigate this context as two unlabelled options described by 20 potential drivers of community preferences for improved public transport, where each choice scenario is conditioned on an estimated construction cost and a total annual transport infrastructure budget for the relevant geographical jurisdiction. This is followed by a labelling of each alternative to reveal whether the option is bus rapid transit (BRT) or light rail (LRT) and to establish whether this additional information influences preference revision. Data is collected in all eight capital cities of Australia in mid 2014. Mixed logit models with heteroscedastic conditioning in terms of the cost of the project infrastructure and whether the alternative is labelled BRT or LRT, provide new evidence on the nature and extent of community modal bias in a budget-constrained choice setting. The conclusions are twofold. On the one hand, if a fully compensatory choice rule is assumed (as is common in all previous modal comparison studies), LRT is predominantly preferred over BRT despite budgetary constraints, similarities in quality of service attributes and the opportunity to choose a greater network coverage for a given construction cost. However, when we allow for attribute non-attendance (a semi-compensatory choice rule), the modal bias is no longer a significant driver of preferences.