汽车保险中奖惩系统的马尔可夫分析

利用马尔可夫分析,求出了驾驶员最终处于奖惩系统各阶上的概率,同时,马尔可夫分析还可以判断出在确定代表驾驶员实际风险的调整保费时奖惩系统的功效,并举例给出了求解奖惩系统的稳态保费及Loimaranta功效具体的计算方法.     

混合钢梁桥初步研究

介绍了混合钢梁的概念及在国内外的研究状况,描述了混合钢梁各阶段的受力特征,提出了对应的弯矩表达式。研究了腹板屈服强度的影响,得到了合理的腹板、翼缘板屈服强度比。推导了混合钢梁弹塑性变形计算公式,分析了弹塑性变形和残余变形的大小,指出可以按照普通钢梁计算混合钢梁挠度,卸载后残余变形可忽略不计。分析了混合钢梁桥的经济性,表明有显著的经济效益。     

建筑垃圾在道路基层中的应用研究

为解决建筑垃圾这一可再生资源得到利用的问题,实现建筑垃圾在路面基层、底基层中应用的目的,通过一系列配合比设计和力学性能试验,成功研制出符合工程使用要求的混合材料配比方案,并经试验路段验证,降低了路面工程材料成本30 %,经济与环保效益十分显著。     

基于实时路况信息的驾驶员路线选择行为模型

从驾驶员出行路线选择的影响因素出发,将实时路况信息影响引入路线选择行为中,在分析实时路况信息及其评价指标的基础上,考虑路线选择行为中可能存在的相关性因素,构建驾驶员路线选择GNL（Generalized Nested Logit）模型,并建立基于可获得实时路况信息满意度的驾驶员路线选择行为效用函数,以求更加客观地反映驾驶员实际路线选择行为。     

票价对轻轨分担率的影响研究——以广州市萝岗轻轨为例

为研究不同的定价策略下轻轨对其影响范围内不同人群的吸引力大小,运用多项 Logit 模型效用最大化理论,并以广州市萝岗轻轨为例,在大量居民出行调查数据基础上,对模型进行参数标定,分析比较小汽车出行﹑电单车、常规公交出行﹑轻轨交通出行4者的效用比,最终确定目标年不同票价政策下各种交通方式的分担率。      

出行方式与出发时间联合选择的分层Logit模型

基于随机效用最大化理论,选取出行者特征、行程特性与出行方式服务水平作为效用变量,以出行方式与出发时间作为选择肢,构建了出发时间位于下层与出行方式位于下层的2种居民出行NL模型。分析了北京市居民出行样本数据,并模拟了在早高峰时段对小汽车出行收取费用时,小汽车出行者出行行为的变化。计算结果表明:与传统MNL模型相比,NL模型具有更好的统计学特征,调整后的拟合优度由0.338增大至0.404;在2种NL模型中,出发时间位于下层的结构对样本数据的适应性更强;当早高峰时段小汽车出行收取费用为5元时,72.6%的小汽车出行者坚持原有出行方式与出发时间,22.4%的小汽车出行者坚持小汽车方式,但会改变出发时间,4.8%的小汽车出行者改用公共交通方式,但出发时间不变,仅0.2%的小汽车出行者同时改变出行方式与出发时间;当收取费用为10元时,51.7%的小汽车出行者坚持原有出行方式与出发时间,40.4%的小汽车出行者坚持小汽车方式,但会改变出发时间,7.9%的小汽车出行者改用公共交通方式,但出发时间不变;当收取费用为20元时,27.5%的小汽车出行者坚持原有出行方式与出发时间,60.6%的小汽车出行者坚持小汽车方式,但会改变出发时间,11.9%的小汽车出行者改用公共交通方式,但出发时间不变。     

Choosing Public Transport—Incorporating Richer Behavioural Elements in Modal Choice Models

The development of behaviourally richer representations of the role of well-established and increasingly important influences on modal choice, such as trip time reliability and accounting for risk attitude and process rules, has moved forward at a fast pace in the context of automobile travel. In the public transport setting, such contributions have, with rare exception, not been considered. In this paper, we discuss and empirically illustrate the merits of advanced modelling developments aimed at improving our understanding of public transport choice, namely the inclusion of reliability in extended expected utility theoretic forms, to recognize risk attitude and perceptual conditioning, the consideration of passenger crowding and its inclusion in linear additive models, and the role of multiple heuristics in representing attribute processing as a way of conditioning modal choice. We illustrate the mechanics of introducing these behaviourally appealing extensions using a modal choice data set collected in Sydney.     

A State-of-the-Art Review: Developments in Utility Theory,Prospect Theory and Regret Theory to Investigate Travellers' Behaviour in Situations Involving Travel Time Uncertainty

Abstract

Despite the wide use of utility theory to model travellers' behaviour, the interest in non-expected utility theories has increased due to their potential to capture more realistic behaviour. A main question raised is whether travellers are better described as utility maximizers or should be qualified differently.

This paper presents a literature review on the use of expected utility theory (EUT), prospect theory (PT) and regret theory (RT) to model travellers' behaviour. Gaps in the literature are identified and a discussion about advantages and disadvantages of each theory is presented. A case study illustrates the differences between the theories.

Under certain conditions, PT and RT restrict themselves to EUT. Their added value, however, is the possibility of capturing loss aversion, risk aversion and risk-seeking (PT) and regret aversion (RT). On the practical level, the use of EUT is well established, while contributions of PT and RT are marginal. On the theoretical level, however, RT seems to be (marginally) more suitable to model travellers' behaviour, while EUT and PT are equally suitable. This suggests that the large use of EUT is highly influenced by its very tractable framework. We do not claim the superiority of any theory, but propose to compare them through a systematic review.     

Accommodating risk in the valuation of expected travel time savings

Valuation of travel time savings is a critical measure in transport infrastructure appraisal, traffic modelling and network performance. It has been recognised for some time that the travel times associated with repeated trips are subject to variation, and hence there is risk embedded in the treatment of expected travel time. In the context of the expected utility framework, we use a nonlinear probability weighting function to accommodate choice made under risk. Although the empirical findings suggest small differences between the value of expected travel time savings (VETTS) in the presence and absence of risk, the mean estimate does make a noticeable difference to time benefits when applied to real projects. By incorporating nonlinear probability weighting, our model reveals that the probabilities associated with specific travel times that are shown to respondents in the choice experiment are transformed, resulting in overweighting of outcomes with low probabilities and underweighting of outcomes with high probabilities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

混凝土矮塔斜拉桥经济特性研究

为弄清楚矮塔斜拉桥经济特性,分析了国内外若干座矮塔斜拉桥的主要材料用量情况,并采用数学拟合的方法得到了其主要材料用量与桥梁跨径的关系式;同时研究了矮塔斜拉桥的经济跨径,并得出主跨大于190 m后,矮塔斜拉桥比连续（梁）刚构和斜拉桥都便宜的结论。