Fueling for contingencies: The hidden cost of unpredictability in the air transportation system

The aviation community is increasing its attention on the concept of predictability when conducting aviation service quality assessments. Reduced fuel consumption and the related cost is one of the various benefits that could be achieved through improved flight predictability. A lack of predictability may cause airline dispatchers to load more fuel onto aircraft before they depart; the flights would then in turn consume extra fuel just to carry excess fuel loaded. In this study, we employ a large dataset with flight-level fuel loading and consumption information from a major US airline. With these data, we estimate the relationship between the amount of loaded fuel and flight predictability performance using a statistical model. The impact of loaded fuel is translated into fuel consumption and, ultimately, fuel cost and environmental impact for US domestic operations. We find that a one-minute increase in the standard deviation of airborne time leads to a 0.88 min increase in loaded contingency fuel and 1.66 min in loaded contingency and alternate fuel. If there were no unpredictability in the aviation system, captured in our model by eliminating standard deviation in flight time, the reduction in the loaded fuel would between 6.12 and 11.28 min per flight. Given a range of fuel prices, this ultimately would translate into cost savings for US domestic airlines on the order of $120–$452 million per year.     

Accelerated vehicle retirement program: Estimating the optimal incentive payment in Israel

The paper analyzes two main aspects of the accelerated vehicle retirement program in Israel: the optimal incentive payment of private cars, and the feasibility of expanding the program to include light commercial vehicles. The benefits are the reduction of pollutant emissions and safety benefits, which were compared to the costs of the incentive payment. A differential payment scheme for private vehicles according to the vehicle’s age, is shown to have a higher net benefit than a uniform payment scheme. It is also found that the optimal payment is higher than the existing incentive payment. Additionally, it is found economically feasible to include light commercial vehicles in the program.     

大数据时代我国快递业的发展现状与趋势

把握快递行业未来发展方向,梳理了大数据技术在快递行业的应用场景并分析了大数据技术对快递行业的影响。分析结果表明,大数据技术能帮助快递企业进行最优配送方案推荐、实时监控车辆设备、解构行业数据、分析市场格局等,从而帮助行业提升配送效率、降低配送成本。未来,快递行业将充分利用大数据技术加强对物流数据的收集、分析与业务应用。在大数据技术影响下,快递企业将呈现四大发展趋势：（1）时效进一步提升,成本继续降低;（2）从快递向物流上下游串联;（3）从国内向国际网络不断外扩;（4）先进的数据分析技术向其他行业外溢。     

港口与运输方式及陆港联合选择的巢式Logit模型

为刻画托运人对港口、运输方式及陆港的联合选择行为,将港口费用、等待时间、班轮频率、货物价值、单次运量、运输成本、运输及通关时间、准班率、陆港服务作为效用变量,构建港口选择位于上层、运输方式及陆港选择位于下层的巢式Logit模型.基于辽宁部分城市集装箱托运人的RP/SP调查数据,对模型参数进行估计和检验.结果表明,低运量倾向选择公路运输,托运人对多式联运的运输成本、运输及通关时间比公路运输的更重视,对公路运输的准班率比多式联运的更重视,陆港服务对多式联运具有显著正向影响,巢式Logit模型比MNL模型具有更优的统计学特征.     

自锚式悬索桥简化计算方法研究

基于能量原理,提出计算自锚式悬索桥受力性能的简化计算方法,对双塔三跨自锚式悬索桥导出求解加劲梁内力、挠度和主缆水平分力的基本公式.该法将自锚式悬索桥的主缆和吊杆截开,用未知力来代替,分别取主缆和连续加劲梁为隔离体进行分析,通过迭代逐步逼近,使两者满足受力协调条件,对主缆同时考虑恒载和活载作用下的挠度,对加劲梁同时考虑轴力和弯矩的作用以及梁柱效应.算例结果表明,该简化计算方法的计算结果收敛速度快,与几何非线性有限元法的计算结果吻合良好.     

大型船舶企业组织管理的柔性控制

介绍了上海船厂船舶有限公司实施企业组织管理柔性控制的背景、主要内容、具体方法,以及取得的初步效果。     

舰艇仿真训练系统开发中三维旋转效果的二维实现

在开发舰艇仿真训练系统中,为提高操作界面的逼真程度,经常要求实现元件的三维旋转效果。文章介绍了传统的二维坐标换算和旋转三维模型方法的局限和缺点,提出了通过替换页面关系和循环引擎,在二维开发环境中实现三维旋转的效果。此方法简化了程序流程,缩短了开发周期,在舰艇模拟仿真训练系统开发过程中有着良好的表现和广泛的应用趋势。     

洋山港建设时期海域通道冲淤变化特征分析

洋山深水港区是由大、小洋山南、北两支岛链组成,形成东窄西宽面向杭州湾开口的喇叭状水域,文章结合洋山港建设以来现场实测水文、地形资料,分析了1998～2007年洋山海域通道内地形冲淤演变情况,将洋山港通道内地形变化特征概括为:随着边界的变化,地形冲淤调整迅速;南北格局呈现出"南淤北冲"的规律;长时间尺度来看,近期地形总体趋于相对平衡,略有冲刷;短时间上看,年内冲淤变化大。为洋山港港区进一步的规划方案论证提供基本依据。     

基于历史保护的老城区公共交通改善研究

受历史保护等诸多因素制约,我国许多城市的老城路网条件较差,交通拥堵严重,公共交通发展水平滞后。如何改善老城交通环境,构建宜居、活力、创新的老城,是社会各界共同关注的焦点。文中以佛山老城为例,提出基于历史保护的老城公共交通改善策略。对公交线网、公交场站、公交资源整合、配套管理等方面进行了研究。     

单舰舰空导弹对空防御问题研究

舰空导弹武器系统是防御反舰导弹的有效兵器之一,舰空导弹的战术技术性能决定了舰空导弹拦截反舰导弹的能力。舰空导弹的反导能力主要取决于舰空导弹的单发命中概率、目标的性质及对不同来袭方向反舰导弹的抗击次数,舰空导弹武器系统性能的优劣直接关系和影响舰艇的生存能力。