包海通道西安至安康高速铁路运输需求分析

研究国家高速铁路网包海通道西安至安康高速铁路的运输需求,可为本线主要技术标准、运输组织和建设方案的确定提供决策依据。首先通过旅客运输径路比较分析,确定本线主要承担我国蒙西、陕北、山西、北京、东北地区、关中地区与陕南、西南、广西、海南等地的旅客交流,兼顾陕南重镇安康等与关中城市群、陕北地区的城际客流,其次基于"四阶段法"基本原理,对区域铁路客运量进行分配预测,并按照趋势运量、转移运量、诱增运量进一步分析本线客流密度,最后研究本线客流构成、所在通道的综合交通方式结构,并综合确定本线客车开行方案。     

Total cost analysis: An alternative to benefit-cost analysis in evaluating transportation alternatives

This paper explains the theory in support of total cost analysis (TCA) to compare transportation system alternatives. The full costs of each alternative are first aggregated, including travel time costs and monetizable environmental and social costs. Many costs which are considered on the benefits side of the equation in benefit-cost analysis (BCA) as "cost savings" are brought over to the costs side. Total cost differences among alternatives are then traded off against their estimated non-monetized benefits or impacts, just as a consumer trades off product quality against cost before deciding which product he or she will buy. One advantage of TCA over traditional BCA is that the concept of "total cost" is more easily understood by the public and by political decision-makers than BCA concepts such as "net present worth", "benefit-cost ratio" and "internal rate of return". A second advantage is that there is no suggestion that all "benefits" have been considered; decision-makers are free to use their own value judgements to trade off total cost against non-monetizable social, environmental and economic impacts, just as they trade off quality and convenience against cost when purchasing goods and services in their roles as consumers. The TCA approach is demonstrated in this paper through a case study of two systemwide alternatives for the Baltimore, MD urban area.     

Uncertain demand,modal competition and optimal price-capacity adjustments in air transportation

A new microeconomic model for the operation of an airline facing modal competition with uncertain total demand is developed to analyze optimal price capacity combinations. The novelty is the treatment of the capacity restriction, which is not viewed as affecting negatively individual preferences (e.g. probability of a full flight), but does influence aggregate utility. A mode choice model is used to represent unrestricted individual preferences assuming full availability (phone call demand); air capacity is treated as a variable that acts on the actual choice set. Restricted choices and total demand stochasticity are integrated in welfare calculations (users' benefits and profits). Numerical examples are given and results are analyzed in terms of load factors fare levels, and sensitivity to the stochasticity of requests.This research was partially funded by FONDECYT, Chile, Direction Génerale de l'Aviation Civile, France, the Andes Foundation and the Fulbright Commission.     

高速公路可变收费标准模型研究

在介绍可变收费的理论基础上,分析影响高速公路可变收费标准制定的主要因素,并讨论不同时段收费费率同交通量的关系。在设定的可变收费方案下,建立了出行者选择的二元logit模型,根据调研样本,采用最小二乘法对模型参数标定并对设定的可变收费方案进行评价,结果证明可变收费能使交通流在各时段合理分布,从而提高了高速公路的服务水平。     

Spatiotemporal influence of land use and household properties on automobile travel demand

Understanding the patterns of automobile travel demand can help formulate policies to alleviate congestion and pollution. This study focuses on the influence of land use and household properties on automobile travel demand. Car license plate recognition (CLPR) data, point-of-interest (POI) data, and housing information data were utilized to obtain automobile travel demand along with the land use and household properties. A geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model was adopted to deal with both the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of travel demand. The spatial-temporal patterns of GTWR coefficients were analyzed. Also, comparative analyses were carried out between automobile and total person travel demand, and among travel demand of taxis, heavily-used private cars, and total automobiles. The results show that: (I) The GTWR model has significantly higher accuracy compared with the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model, which means the GTWR model can measure both the spatial and temporal heterogeneity with high precision; (II) The influence of built environment and household properties on automobile travel demand varies with space and time. In particular, the temporal distribution of regression coefficients shows significant peak phenomenon; and (III) Comparative analyses indicate that residents’ preference for automobiles over other travel modes varies with their travel purpose and destination. The above findings indicate that the proposed method can not only model spatial-temporal heterogeneous travel demand, but also provide a way to analyze the patterns of automobile travel demand.     

船舶企业农民工稳定措施研究

分析当前船舶企业用工短缺现象,认为企业应当改变思路,完善机制,充分了解尊重并充分考虑当前农民工的需求,采取稳定农民工的措施。     

Integrated airline planning: Robust update of scheduling and fleet balancing under demand uncertainty

The airline schedule planning problem is defined as the sequence of decisions that need to be made to obtain a fully operational flight schedule. Historically, the airline scheduling problem has been sequentially solved. However, there have already been many attempts in order to obtain airline schedules in an integrated way. But due to tractability issues it is nowadays impossible to determine a fully operative and optimal schedule with an integrated model which accounts for all the key airline related aspects such as competitive effects, stochastic demand figures and uncertain operating conditions. Airlines usually develop base schedules, which are obtained much time in advance to the day of operations and not accounting for all the related uncertainty. This paper proposes a mathematical model in order to update base schedules in terms of timetable and fleet assignments while considering stochastic demand figures and uncertain operating conditions, and where robust itineraries are introduced in order to ameliorate miss-connected passengers. The proposed model leads to a large-scale problem which is difficult to be solved. Therefore, a novel improved and accelerated Benders decomposition approach is proposed. The analytical work is supported with case studies involving the Spanish legacy airline, IBERIA. The presented approach shows that the number of miss-connected passengers may be reduced when robust planning is applied.     

Modeling real-time human mobility based on mobile phone and transportation data fusion

Even though a variety of human mobility models have been recently developed, models that can capture real-time human mobility of urban populations in a sustainable and economical manner are still lacking. Here, we propose a novel human mobility model that combines the advantages of mobile phone signaling data (i.e., comprehensive penetration in a population) and urban transportation data (i.e., continuous collection and high accuracy). Using the proposed human mobility model, travel demands during each 1-h time window were estimated for the city of Shenzhen, China. Significantly, the estimated travel demands not only preserved the distribution of travel demands, but also captured real-time bursts of mobility fluxes during large crowding events. Finally, based on the proposed human mobility model, a predictive model is deployed to predict crowd gatherings that usually cause severe traffic jams.     

上海松江区现代有轨电车规划研究

现代有轨电车因其环保、舒适、高效、低造价、高品质等特点,在国际上得到广泛应用,我国多个城市也在规划和建设之中。但是,由于其在国内尚为一种全新的交通方式,没有标准或规范予以指导,规划及设计体系不完善,有些已建项目已呈现问题。文章结合上海松江区规划背景及交通特征,阐述有轨电车示范线T1、T2线的布局规划、建设的必要性及适应性,为即将开展有轨电车规划及建设的城市提供借鉴与参考。     

基于需求弹性的城市公交票价优化方法及实证分析

城市公交票价是公交系统健康发展的重要因素，票价制定需兼顾公交企业的市场性和公益性双重属性，在保证服务质量的同时，考虑运营成本和最大限度吸引公交需求，实现经济效益和社会效益的双赢.在本文中，根据用户均衡理论，构建了城市多方式交通出行的需求分析模型，采用灵敏度分析方法给出了城市公交价格-需求弹性的计算方法.在此基础上，充分考虑了各种方式的交通特征、公交需求弹性、公交运营成本及政府限价等因素，提出了城市公交票价优化的数学规划模型，并给出了求解算法.最后，以国内某城市居民出行调查及公交运营数据为基础，分析了不同条件下公交客运需求的变化规律及城市公交票价的优化策略.