火灾高温下盾构隧道衬砌结构热力耦合模型试验

为研究火灾高温下盾构隧道衬砌结构的热力耦合行为,利用自主研制的温度加载设备和衬砌管环外压加载设备,分别设计并开展整环衬砌结构的无外压受热模型试验和热力耦合模型试验。试验使用不考虑接头效应的钢纤维混凝土匀质管片。首先,介绍2种试验设备的原理、主要构造和各类参数;在此基础上,针对模型试验过程进行细致的说明。然后,通过对衬砌管片结构形式的分析确定试验的火灾加载工况;详尽描述不同试验的相关结果,重点分析衬砌结构内表面各处温度场的变化过程、分布情况、管片的变形结果及破坏模式。研究结果表明：温度加载设备和衬砌管环外压加载设备能够较好的满足整环衬砌热力耦合研究的模型试验要求;试验初期底部管片的升温速率相对顶部管片有所滞后,但各部分间的温差数值随加热的持续进行会逐渐减小,衬砌结构内部能够形成稳定的温度场;无外力作用下匀质管片的破坏形式表现为沿幅宽方向的贯穿裂缝,各管片结构的裂缝发展路径存在差异;衬砌管片由于外压作用产生的压应变随温度的升高而减小;外压荷载对衬砌结构在高温下产生的膨胀变形存在抑制效果。研究结果可为盾构隧道整环衬砌结构热力耦合研究的进一步发展提供参考。     

Vehicle mass as a determinant of fuel consumption and secondary safety performance

One interaction between environmental and safety goals in transport is found within the vehicle fleet where fuel economy and secondary safety performance of individual vehicles impose conflicting requirements on vehicle mass from an individual’s perspective. Fleet characteristics influence the relationship between the environmental and safety outcomes of the fleet; the topic of this paper. Cross-sectional analysis of mass within the British fleet is used to estimate the partial effects of mass on the fuel consumption and secondary safety performance of vehicles. The results confirmed that fuel consumption increases as mass increases and is different for different combinations of fuel and transmission types. Additionally, increasing vehicle mass generally decreases the risk of injury to the driver of a given vehicle in the event of a crash. However, this relationship depends on the characteristics of the vehicle fleet, and in particular, is affected by changes in mass distribution within the fleet. We confirm that there is generally a trade-off in vehicle design between fuel economy and secondary safety performance imposed by mass. Cross-comparison of makes and models by model-specific effects reveal cases where this trade-off exists in other aspects of design. Although it is shown that mass imposes a trade-off in vehicle design between safety and fuel use, this does not necessarily mean that it imposes a trade-off between safety and environmental goals in the vehicle fleet as a whole because the secondary safety performance of a vehicle depends on both its own mass and the mass of the other vehicles with which it collides.     

工程总承包模式下项目业主风险防范探讨

文章结合工程总承包的特点,分析了工程总承包模式下项目业主在项目实施过程中所面临的风险,提出了相应的防范风险的措施。     

高埋深软硬岩互层地质条件下敞开式TBM岩爆段施工方法研究

基于喜马拉雅山区域某软硬岩性互层地质条件下的深埋隧洞工程,为解决该区域TBM施工过程中的岩爆问题,统计分析了TBM施工过程中的岩爆特征;在施工过程中开展了多种岩爆规避试验,形成了一套较完整的有针对性的施工方法： 1）岩爆风险巡查常态化; 2）超前地质预报和超前处理措施相结合; 3）支护材料和支护方式合理化; 4）掘进参数动态调整。在后续的施工中加以应用,取得了较好的效果,可以为类似地质条件下的安全施工提供参考。     

6 km长公路隧道全射流纵向排烟现场实体火灾试验研究

为研究6 km长公路隧道全射流纵向排烟的可行性与有效性,依托羊鹿山隧道开展全射流纵向排烟现场实体火灾试验。试验在不利于排烟的下坡隧道（左洞）内进行,考虑5、10 、20 MW3个不同等级的火灾规模,并对不同工况下隧道内沿程风速、排烟时间等进行研究。通过对不同火灾工况下油盘火现场试验,得出如下结论： 1）现场火灾试验期间,羊鹿山隧道左洞内自然风速为1.0~1.6 m/s,与排烟方向相反,为排烟阻力; 2）隧道内开启6组以上风机时,下坡隧道内沿程风速大于3.0 m/s; 3）根据5、10、20 MW油盘火排烟试验结果,采用全射流纵向排烟方式能将隧道内烟气全部排出洞外,且从点火开始到烟气全部排出洞外的时间约为30 min。     

Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

安全水平法在SOLAS 救生艇结构强度衡准制定中的应用

本文将安全水平法应用于SOLAS第III章救生艇结构强度衡准的制定。主要采用综合安全评估对救生艇结构强度相关的功能性要求进行衡准的初步制定,从而得出需要的安全水平。基于强度衡准理论分析、实艇试验和事故数据分析相结合的方式评估了现有救生艇结构强度的安全水平,对衡准的合理性提出修改的建议。研究结果为安全水平法在船舶技术标准制定和安全水平评估方面的应用提供了实际案例和使用建议。     

Predicting queue variability to enable analysis of overload risk

ABSTRACT

Predicting the risk of traffic demands and delays exceeding critical limits at road junctions, airports, hospitals, etc., requires knowing how both mean and variance of queue size vary over time. Microscopic simulation can explore variability but is computationally demanding and gives only sample results. A computationally efficient approximation to the mean is used in many modelling tools, but only empirical extensions for variance in particular situations have been available. The paper derives theoretical formulae for time-dependent and equilibrium variance, believed to be novel and to apply generally to queues covered by the Pollaczek–Khinchin mean formula, and offering possible structural insights. These are applied in an extended approximation giving mutually consistent mean and variance estimates with improved accuracy. Tests on oversaturated peak demand cases are compared with Markov probabilistic simulation, demonstrating accuracy (R^2?>?0.99) for typical random, priority-like (M/M/1) and traffic-signal-like (M/D/1) queues. Implications for risk analysis, planning and policy are considered.     

Aggregating mobile object trajectories: cumulative time geographic density estimation for GPS data

We present new approaches that expand upon the time geographic density estimation (TGDE) framework previously employed to estimate potential path trees. In the past, TGDE metrics have identified possible locations an individual moving object may have passed between, given known origin and destination points. This paper utilizes a new form of TGDE to investigate taxicab GPS traces over a specified time horizon with position ‘gaps’. To this end, we propose a new extension to the TGDE framework, TGDE-C, which is used to determine the cumulative TGDE values for a group of GPS traces, at a given location. These metrics are applied to multiple taxis and allow for time of day analysis. Additionally, we combine these new extensions with existing TGDE metrics that allow us to determine how accessible individual or groups of vehicles are to urban opportunities.