缓波型非粘接柔性立管的干涉敏感性

针对非粘接柔性立管在波浪和海流作用下易发生立管干涉的问题,以我国南海某油田输油立管和相邻锚链为例,分别对拖曳力系数、管道单位长度质量、外径、内部介质密度、立管抗拉弯扭刚度和悬挂角度等参数进行敏感性分析,得出不同参数的敏感性情况,并在此基础上提出一些建议供实际工程设计参考.     

基于信令数据的出行强度影响因素分析模型

为探究城市交通出行强度影响因素及不同因素的影响程度，本文从土地利用与交通基础设施建设两方面出发，分析包括土地利用混合指数，职住混合率熵指数，公共交通站点 500 m覆盖率，路网可达性等17个指标与出行强度的相关关系；基于相关系数和拟合优度分析，提取7个与出行强度强相关指标，基于所识别指标构建北京市中心城区出行强度多元回归模型.模型结果表明，职住混合率熵指数对出行强度的影响最为显著，公共交通站点覆盖率对出行强度的影响比道路网密度和可达性更为明显.此外，给出单一土地利用/交通基础设施指标对出行强度拟合结果的离群特征分析方法，用于评估不同区域基础设施供给与交通出行需求之间的平衡关系.     

Environmental and transport effects of warehouse relocationing: evidence from Norway

Reducing traffic volumes and CO2-emissions from freight transport has proven difficult in many countries. Although the increasing suburbanization of warehouses is seen as a relevant land use trend, comprehensive analyses of their impact remain scarce. This study uses real data in modeling transport, costs, environmental and modal effects from warehouse relocations around Oslo and Trondheim (Norway). Results indicate that for Oslo, traffic performance (ton-km), CO2-emissions, and transport costs increase following warehouse suburbanization. For Trondheim, transport performance and CO2-emissions increase less, while transport costs decrease marginally. We conclude that specific case characteristics (geography and trade patterns) are important in determining the strength and direction of effects, and expect that common concomitant developments (warehouse centralization and consolidation) would lead to more pronounced results. Our findings confirm some, but challenge other, findings from the relatively scarcely literature available. Finally, the study's more general insights and observations can help advance similar analyses beyond Norway.     

Modeling time-of-day car use behavior: A Bayesian network approach

In this research, a Bayesian network (BN) approach is proposed to model the car use behavior of drivers by time of day and to analyze its relationship with driver and car characteristics. The proposed BN model can be categorized as a tree-augmented naive (TAN) Bayesian network. A latent class variable is included in this model to describe the unobserved heterogeneity of drivers. Both the structure and the parameters are learned from the dataset, which is extracted from GPS data collected in Toyota City, Japan. Based on inferences and evidence sensitivity analysis using the estimated TAN model, the effects of each single observed characteristic on car use measures are tested and found to be significant. The features of each category of the latent class are also analyzed. By testing the effect of each car use measure on every other measure, it is found that the correlations between car use measures are significant and should be considered in modeling car use behavior.     

Time use in travel surveys and time use surveys – Two sides of the same coin?

An in-depth understanding of travel behaviour determinants, including the relationship to non-travel activities, is the foundation for modelling and policy making. National Travel Surveys (NTS) and time use surveys (TUS) are two major data sources for travel behaviour and activity participation. The aim of this paper is to systematically compare both survey types regarding travel activities and non-travel activities. The analyses are based on the German National Travel Survey and the German National Time Use Survey from 2002.The number of trips and daily travel time for mobile respondents were computed as the main travel estimates. The number of trips per person is higher in the German TUS when changes in location without a trip are included. Location changes without a trip are consecutive non-trip activities with different locations but without a trip in-between. The daily travel time is consistently higher in the German TUS. The main reason for this difference is the 10-min interval used. Differences in travel estimates between the German TUS and NTS result from several interaction effects. Activity time in NTS is comparable with TUS for subsistence activities.Our analyses confirm that both survey types have advantages and disadvantages. TUS provide reliable travel estimates. The number of trips even seems preferable to NTS if missed trips are properly identified and considered. Daily travel times are somewhat exaggerated due to the 10-min interval. The fixed time interval is the most important limitation of TUS data. The result is that trip times in TUS do not represent actual trip times very well and should be treated with caution.We can use NTS activity data for subsistence activities between the first trip and the last trip. This can potentially benefit activity-based approaches since most activities before the first trip and after the last trip are typical home-based activities which are rarely substituted by out-of-home activities.     

Understanding time use: Daily or weekly data?

The appropriate duration of time diaries as a source of time use data is analyzed in a structured way. Nine detailed European surveys based on seven-days diaries are used in order to study different dimensions of data quality, duration and variability of activities, and modeling capabilities. Pseudo diaries of 1, 2 (one week, one weekend) and 3 (one week, both weekend) days are constructed to further analyze these issues, selecting the seven-days diaries data as a benchmark. Comparative results show that two and three-days weighted surveys seem to be an adequate surrogate for the information obtained in weekly surveys that capture a basic work–leisure cycle.     

Climate change behaviors related to purchase and use of personal cars: Development and validation of eco-socially conscious consumer behavior scale

A constantly changing environment and global warming are issues that are recognized at all global forums. One of the major reasons for global warming is the emission of greenhouse gasses which is primarily caused by use of personal cars as means of transport. This study reports on the development of an eco-socially conscious consumer behavior (ESCCB) scale specific to purchase and use of personal cars, based on samples of actual automobile customers in Pakistan. Using mixed method approaches, the results of 3 studies yield a 9-item three-dimensional scale (eco-social conservation, eco-social use, and eco-social purchase) with satisfactory reliability, construct validity and nomological validity. Second-order factor analysis revealed that eco-social purchase was the most important dimension, followed by eco-conservation and eco-social use. A test of nomological behavior shows that the scale is positively associated with a related construct: environmental concern. This study advances the literature on pro-environmental behaviors by introducing a conceptual definition of ESCCB related to personal car purchase and use, developing a measure for the ESCCB concept and validating the scale in the context of an emerging economy, Pakistan. The scale provides important insights for marketers in the automobile industry for remodelling marketing plans, as well as for environmentalists focusing on strategies to bring change in consumer behavior.     

The impact of land-use mix on residents' travel energy consumption: New evidence from Beijing

Policies that encourage mixed land use are widely believed to make transport more energy efficient. However, few studies have directly examined the impacts of land-use heterogeneity on travel energy consumption at the individual level. Moreover, the definition and measures of land-use heterogeneity are debated. This paper aims to fill these gaps using the large city of Beijing, China, as a case study. Three types of land use are examined in terms of their effects on individual residents’ travel energy consumption. The results suggest that high land-use diversity and a good jobs-housing balance significantly reduces commuting travel. Interestingly, highly heterogeneous retail and housing areas may have high travel energy use, as residents are more likely to go shopping. There are obvious spatial variations in these effects. Residents of suburban ‘newtowns’, where the jobs-housing balance is particularly good, consume less travel energy. The results suggest that decreased use of conventional planning patterns, such as the socialist danwei system, and increasing urban sprawl, bring new challenges to achieving transport efficiency. Mixed land-use policies can be an effective solution to these challenges.     

《深圳市综合交通体系规划((2013—2030)》编制探索——以更具竞争力、可持续的综合交通体系促进城市转型发展

通过回顾评价深圳市历次综合交通体系规划的得失,分析城市转型对于综合交通体系的挑战以及新形势下综合交通体系规划的定位。以《深圳市综合交通体系规划(2013—2030)》为例,对规划编制的内容和方法开展研究,具体包括:转型导向的交通发展目标与指标体系、一体化的综合交通体系组织、立足区域协作的整体交通战略、与组团结构相匹配的交通分区组织、与城市功能布局的协调互动、注重协同的交通管控政策,以及应对大数据的智能交通策略等。最后介绍规划编制组织特点并提出城市转型期综合交通体系规划的进一步思考。     

超大城市公交都市建设路径探索与反思——以广州市为例

当前中国一系列城市正处于向超大城市转变的关键时期,建设公交都市已经成为摆脱超大城市交通拥堵的必经之路。采用实证分析方法剖析广州市百年来公共交通的发展历程,回顾梳理不同发展阶段的特征,同时解构公交都市的内涵,总结广州市公交都市建设的成功经验。通过对比国内外先进案例,指出广州市公交都市建设在公交运力、公交路权、车站覆盖和车站衔接上存在不足。以广州市公交都市建设经验为基础,从公交都市的规划、设计、运营、管理四个方面出发,建议将多元化、协调化、人性化、灵活化作为超大城市公交都市建设的未来发展方向。