Experiment of boundedly rational route choice behavior and the model under satisficing rule

In this paper, we study the boundedly rational route choice behavior under the Simon’s satisficing rule. A laboratory experiment was carried out to verify the participants’ boundedly rational route choice behavior. By introducing the concept of aspiration level which is specific to each person, we develop a novel model of the problem in a parallel-link network and investigate the properties of the boundedly rational user equilibrium (BRUE) state. Conditions for ensuring the existence and uniqueness of the BRUE solution are derived. A solution method is proposed to find the unique BRUE state. Extensions to general networks are conducted. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the theoretical analyses.     

“龙格-库塔”算法在航天器实时落点计算中的应用

在介绍航天器实时落点估算的作用和实现原理的基础上,分析了采用“龙格库塔”算法进行航天器实时落点估算的优势,提出了四阶“龙格一库塔”法实时计算航天器落点模型。该方法在保证航天飞行试验强实时性的前提下有效提高了航天器实时落点估算的精度,对确保成功地实施航天器安全控制和回收提供了科学的依据。     

两种飞行甲板形式的舰船空气流场特性比较

搭载固定翼飞机的水面舰船受多种因素的影响,通常会采用多种飞行甲板形式,尤其是在没有配备弹射器但搭载有固定翼飞机的舰船上,是否采用滑跃式起飞甲板,采用后舰面空气流场会有哪些变化是在总布置设计必须要讨论的问题.本文通过在定常条件下,同一船型上采用的2种飞行甲板舰面布置方案进行了多个工况的空气流场模拟计算,对计算结果进行分析,观察模拟出的二维/三位流线形态,对舰船采用不同飞行甲板形式的气流场特性进行了初步的探讨.     

集装箱码头800M数字集群通信系统制式的选择

介绍了数字集群通信系统的特点,对数字集群系统两种制式作了比较。分析了集装箱码头对通信系统的要求和目前国内iDEN系统的运行状态。     

港口与运输方式及陆港联合选择的巢式Logit模型

为刻画托运人对港口、运输方式及陆港的联合选择行为,将港口费用、等待时间、班轮频率、货物价值、单次运量、运输成本、运输及通关时间、准班率、陆港服务作为效用变量,构建港口选择位于上层、运输方式及陆港选择位于下层的巢式Logit模型.基于辽宁部分城市集装箱托运人的RP/SP调查数据,对模型参数进行估计和检验.结果表明,低运量倾向选择公路运输,托运人对多式联运的运输成本、运输及通关时间比公路运输的更重视,对公路运输的准班率比多式联运的更重视,陆港服务对多式联运具有显著正向影响,巢式Logit模型比MNL模型具有更优的统计学特征.     

汕尾市新港大桥桥型方案比选

大跨度桥型方案比选。应在技术可行的前提下,对桥梁的经济性、美观性和创新性进行系统的分析、论证与比较,力争找到一个既能突出当地经济特色、人文思想及价值观念,又能表达现当代桥梁的技术水平及蕴涵未来桥梁的发展趋势的最佳方案。     

Key criteria influencing the choice of Arctic shipping: a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model

As Arctic sea ice shrinks due to global warming, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP) offer a substantial reduction in shipping distance between Asia and the European and North American continents, respectively, when compared to conventional routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. However, Arctic shipping routes have many problems associated with their use. The main objective of this paper is to identify the key criteria that influence the decisions of shipping operators with respect to using Arctic shipping routes. A multi-criteria decision-making methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank four potential categories of criteria (‘economic’, ‘technical’, ‘political’ and ‘safety’ factors) and their sub-criteria.

The results of the analysis suggest that, on aggregate, ‘economic’ is the most important category of influential factors, followed by ‘safety’, ‘technical’ and ‘political’ factors. The paper concludes, however, that the most influential specific sub-criteria relate to risks that lie mainly within the ‘safety’ and ‘political’ domains and that, especially in combination, these overwhelm the importance which is attached to ‘economic’ factors such as reduced fuel use. Finally, the implications of these findings for the future development of Arctic shipping are addressed at a strategic level.     

Development of railway station choice models to improve the representation of station catchments in rail demand models

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the development of railway station choice models suitable for defining probabilistic station catchments. These catchments can then be incorporated into the aggregate demand models typically used to forecast demand for new rail stations. Revealed preference passenger survey data obtained from the Welsh and Scottish Governments was used for model calibration. Techniques were developed to identify trip origins and destinations from incomplete address information and to automatically validate reported trips. A bespoke trip planner was used to derive mode-specific station access variables and train leg measures. The results from a number of multinomial logit and random parameter (mixed) logit models are presented and their predictive performance assessed. The models were found to have substantially superior predictive accuracy compared to the base model (which assumes the nearest station has a probability of one), indicating that their incorporation into passenger demand forecasting methods has the potential to significantly improve model predictive performance.     

Incorporating the extended theory of planned behavior in a school travel mode choice model: a case study of Shaoxing,China

Travel to and from school can have social, economic, and environmental implications for students and their parents. Therefore, understanding school travel mode choice behavior is essential to find policy-oriented approaches to optimizing school travel mode share. Recent research suggests that psychological factors of parents play a significant role in school travel mode choice behavior and the Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model has been used to test the effect of psychological constructs on mode choice behavior. However, little research has used a systematic framework of behavioral theory to organize these psychological factors and investigate their internal relationships. This paper proposes an extended theory of planned behavior (ETPB) to delve into the psychological factors caused by the effects of adults’ cognition and behavioral habits and explores the factors’ relationship paradigm. A theoretical framework of travel mode choice behavior for students in China is constructed. We established the MIMIC model that accommodates latent variables from ETPB. We found that not all the psychological latent variables have significant effects on school travel mode choice behavior, but habit can play an essential role. The results provide theoretical support for demand policies for school travel.     

The accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice setting: A re-examination and some controversial conclusions

Data is typically gathered from an individual respondent who represents the group or the household. This individual is often identified as the “primary decision maker” and is asked to provide responses as a proxy for the group given that the cost of interviewing each member individually is impractical and/or expensive. The collection of joint preferences is rarely undertaken, with the use of proxy responses not uncommon in travel behaviour research. Under such a framework, there exists an assumption that the primary decision maker has perfect knowledge of other group member preferences, and bargaining behaviour, and is able to synthesise this information when providing a response on their behalf. The validity of such an assumption however remains an open question, with recent research calling the reliability of proxy responses into account (Bateman and Munro, 2009). In this paper, using three models estimated in willingness to pay space, we examine the accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice experiment. We find that there is overlap between a proxy response and the own preferences of the individual providing the proxy choice, but while the proxy responses fail to represent the full preference heterogeneity that exists in the actual choices made by individuals, the proxy responses in aggregate provide a suitable replacement for actual data, subject to a number of caveats.