Hydrological changes in the Mediterranean Sea in relation to changes in the freshwater budget: A numerical modelling study

The response of the Mediterranean Sea and the various sub-basins to changes in the freshwater budget are investigated in a process-oriented study, using the POM model. The model is first integrated using values of the Nile and Ebro rivers runoff, as well as of the Dardanelles freshwater input, typical of the fifties. The model reaches a steady state representative of that existing in the Mediterranean prior to the major damming period after 90 years of integration. Then the model is integrated using the reduced river runoff values typical of the after-damming period. The additional impact of decadal scale trends in the precipitation rate as well as of intense surface cooling periods/events on the thermohaline circulation during the last 40 years were also examined. The model results show that the dramatic reduction of the Nile freshwater input and to a lesser extent the reduction of the freshwater input from the Dardanelles Straits induced a large increase in the sea surface salinity in the Aegean and Levantine basins in the late sixties/early seventies, in agreement with observations. Furthermore, the Ebro runoff reduction during the same period further enhanced the salinity increase in the Levantine basin as higher salinity surface waters of the western basin reached the eastern basin via the Atlantic Water circulation. This saltier surface layer in the vicinity of the Rhodes Gyre favoured the preconditioning for the formation of the Levantine Intermediate Water, resulting in about 40% increase of its formation rate. This in turn resulted in the production of saltier and larger amounts of deep waters in the various deep-water formation sites. According to the model, the river damming and decreased precipitation since the eighties explain about 95% of the observed salinity increase in the Western Mediterranean Deep Water over the last 40 years. The major contributor to this increase was proved to be the Nile damming. The salt increase in the surface layer is proved to be insufficient to produce alone the two climatic transient events in the deep waters of the Eastern Mediterranean in the late sixties and early nineties, respectively. Surface cooling was found to be important, resulting in large deep water formation and thus allowing the propagation of the increased surface salinity signal to the deep layers. However, model results demonstrate that the river damming played an important role in the long-term salt preconditioning of the surface/intermediate layers, thus contributing in triggering the two events.     

技术站单组列车编组方案模型与计算方法的研究

技术站列车编组计划编制问题属于超大规模的组合优化问题,求解难度较大.以往的研究在考虑技术站改编能力限制时基本上是采用取上限的计算方法,由此得到的最优方案有可能使得列车途经各技术站的改编能力利用不均衡,影响编制方案的实用性.本文在现有技术直达列车编组计划研究成果的基础上,综合考虑车站编组能力、解体能力、调车线容车数等影响因素,以技术站车辆集结消耗、改编消耗整体最小以及技术站改编能力均衡利用为目标函数,构建协同优化的多目标0-1规划模型,提出了基于分块编码的改进型遗传算法的优化方法.算例表明,该算法能有效地求解技术站单组列车编组计划方案,并能取得快速准确的良好效果,为车流组织人员提供可行的优选方案.     

城轨交通整体道床病害及整治

研究目的:整体道床在城轨交通中得到广泛应用,在运营过程中应对其进行日常维修养护工作.同时整体道床不可避免出现病害,影响美观和使用寿命,必须及时加以整治.本文从分析病害产生的原因入手,依据病害整治原则,制定病害整治方案,并认真落实,使其延长使用寿命,确保运营安全.研究结论:城轨交通工程整体道床日常维修及病害整治的传统方法有表面涂膜法、压力注桨法、开槽修补法等.借鉴铁路、建筑行业的混凝土结构病害整治先进技术,积极采用如低压注桨补缝技术、炭纤维加固、高强无收缩注桨料、高强无收缩注桨料等新技术、新材料、新工艺,与传统方法相结合,使整治施工简便、性能可靠,并且降低费用,提高经济效益.     

车辆改编隐性成本对编组计划优化的影响

铁路车辆无改编通过技术站的节省时间是铁路车流组织的重要参考依据，其准确与否直接关系到列车编组计划质量的优劣．提出了车辆在改编过程中除了产生改编时间、改编费用的显性成本以外，还产生车轮、车钩、车体及货物损伤等隐性成本，并探讨了该隐性成本的量化途径．分析了铁路车辆改编参数计算的要素，在考虑车辆改编隐性成本的基础上对传统改编参数进行了修正，并设计了一个单组列车编组方案优化的算例．分析表明车辆改编隐性成本应当纳入改编参数的计算之中，其对列车编组计划优化的影响不容忽视．     

铁路集装箱中心站班列编组方案数学模型

针对已开通运营的铁路集装箱中心站相继开行诸多集装箱班列的实际,构建了集装箱班列编组方案选优的数学模型.该模型是在借鉴已有列车编组计划优化模型的基础上,根据其运输组织的特点,建立了在路网情形下,考虑了包括车站班列中转改编能力储备约束和区段牵引定数限制因素在内的单组班列编组方案选优的数学模型.该模型将一支集装箱箱流可能需要二次及其以上中转改编问题转变为多次一站中转改编问题来描述.因而,该模型复杂度大为降低,且为线性0-1规划模型,决策变量规模为2n3 - 5n2+3n.因而,该模型可以应用现有较为成熟的线性规划算法进行求解.另外,该文还运用模型实例来说明该模型对实际问题的有效描述.     

航母编队受到的敌空袭威胁扇面大小预测模型

研究航母编队在防空作战中受到的敌空袭威胁扇面对航母编队兵力编成和防空兵力阵位配置具有重要意义.从航母编队受到的威胁扇面影响参数的定义人手,首先分析了影响敌空袭威胁扇面大小的主要因素,然后在假定敌空袭武器射程小于航母编队预警距离的情况下,提供了航母编队受到的敌空袭威胁扇面大小的预测方法,建立了计算威胁扇面大小的数学模型,...     

The effects of social networks on choice set dynamics: Results of numerical simulations using an agent-based approach

Activity-based analysis has slowly shifted gear from the analysis of daily activity patterns to the analysis and modeling of dynamic activity-travel patterns. In this paper, we address one type of dynamics: the formation and adaptation of location choice sets under influence of dyad relationships within social networks. It extends the dynamic model developed in earlier work, which simulates habitual behavior versus exploitation and exploration as a function of discrepancies between dynamic, context-dependent aspiration levels and expected outcomes. Principles of social comparison and knowledge transfer are used in modeling the impact of social networks through information exchange, adaptations of spatial choice sets and formation of common aspiration levels. We demonstrate model properties using numerical simulation with a case study of shopping activities.     

大桥深水基础方案设计与施工及经济性研究

大桥深水基础方案设计在技术上如能很好地与环境相适应,可以达到经济上更合理,现以2座大桥基础工程实例进行分析。肇庆西江公铁两用大桥水中4号墩基础外形与高承台管柱基础基本相似,采用全钢外壳,由于在施工中无需承受震动打桩机的强力冲击,所以结构截面比较轻型,用钢量并不高,且有相当一部分系使用后可以回收的常备式杆件,故在经济上更具优势而且工期也短。泰州长江公路大桥中塔沉井基础高76 m,分为12节,沉井平面布置12个大井孔,与当时在长江中习惯采用的大直径深钻孔集群桩基础方案相比,该沉井基础在材料上更节省,工艺上更简单,且在受力性能和经济性方面明显占优,具有明显的技术优势。     

特高压电缆洞道统包工程设计实例

工程为新竹地区161 kV特高压电缆线路之一,采潜盾洞道规划设计,隧道全长约8 368 m,共设有9座直井及机房,直井深度平均约24 m。直径6 m洞道主要容纳161 kV电缆10回线复导体,直径5.6 m容纳6回线复导体。业主采统包最有利标方式招商,并委由统包商办理直井用地之取得,开台湾工程之先例。通过之地质主要为湖口台地卵砾石层沉积地层,采潜盾施作,亦是台湾目前采机械钻掘穿过卵砾石层最长的隧道及内径最大之电缆用隧道。圆形洞道首创防火中隔墙设计,善用空间减少开挖断面,达到节能减碳及降低维护成本之目的,并采地下机房设计减少景观及环境之冲击。     

基于运行图的快速公交系统运营组织研究

借鉴列车运行图的理念,对快速公交系统基于运行图的运营组织进行了研究。首先分析了快速公交系统基于运行图运营组织的系统构成和系统条件。然后设计了快速公交运行图的图解表示和编制流程,确定了运行图的主--素。最后,以济南BRT1号线为例,根据客流特征进行了高峰小时运行图的编制。结果表明,如果快速公交能够按图运营,能提高旅行速度、节约运用车辆,这为BRT的运营组织管理提出了新的思路,具有一定的指导意义。