支持向量机在货运量预测中的应用研究

在分析现有货运量预测方法所存在问题的基础上,建立了货运量预测的支持向量机模型,并以我国1981～2001年的货运量和相关经济指标的历史统计数据作为学习样本,分别选用3种不同的核函数,通过拟合训练和外推预测分析,验证了支持向量机用于货运量预测的有效性,并对模型中的有关参数进行了探讨分析。     

青藏铁路大风天气运输组织方法

青藏高原大风天气多,空气密度小,大风对铁路运输安全的影响与低海拔地区差异较大。利用车辆动力学原理建立列车临界翻车风速模型,分别计算青藏铁路海拔3 000 m和4 000 m冻土和非冻土地区的临界翻车风速和危险翻车风速,以及给定风速条件下车辆限制速度。计算结果表明,青藏铁路临界翻车风速随海拔升高而增大,随冻土路基病害出现而降低。参考英、日等国大风标准,结合青藏铁路的特点,根据危险翻车风速和临界翻车风速,初步提出青藏铁路海拔4 000 m地区安全行车标准及特定运行条件、冻土地区线路出现病害情况下的安全行车标准及特定运行条件。提出列车限速运行、增加车辆载重、提高列车编组水平、提高司机操作水平、改善棚车顶部外形、加强货运检查、注意车辆防溜和风沙地区线路检查等大风天气运输组织措施。     

Exchange rate and transport cost sensitivities of bilateral freight flows between the US and China

This paper explores the long-run impacts of gross domestic product, exchange rate, and transport costs on bilateral air and ocean freight flows between the US and China. The study employs a cointegration framework by using export and import data over the period of 2003:Q1-2014:Q2. Results show that gross domestic product is the key determinant of bilateral freight flows, indicating that real income of a trading partner is a driving force of the bilateral freight flows between the US and China. In examining the sensitivities of the bilateral trade flows, air freight flows are found to be more responsive to a real income change than ocean freight flows. The bilateral exchange rate is a significant factor affecting the freight flows from China to the US, suggesting that a US dollar appreciation against the Chinese yuan increases the inflows of Chinese commodities to the US. The impacts of the bilateral exchange rate and transport cost are found to vary at industry and commodity levels. These findings support the importance of employing disaggregate data in the bilateral freight flow analysis.     

Design and evaluation of an integrated inventory and transportation system

This paper proposes the adoption of an integrated inventory and transportation system (IITS) to minimize the total costs of inventory and transportation. A non-linear programing is developed by analyzing transportation and inventory costs with one supplier and many retailers in the distribution environment. The paper compares the proposed model with the traditional approach in computing total costs with numerical data. The results indicate that the total costs can be optimized by adopting integrated programing rather than the traditional approach, along with achieving improved customer service levels. In particular, sensitivity analysis is applied to determine the performance of the IITS under various transportation costs, holding costs and shortage costs. It shows that the transportation cost per unit is most sensitive in the proposed model. In this situation, the IITS is more effective for cost saving when set-up cost, holding and shortage costs are high, but is less effective for situations involving high per-unit transportation costs.     

基于疲劳强度的焊接结构设计细节

阐述了国内铁路货车焊接结构疲劳强度设计的现状,结合货车产品的设计和现场应用实例,从结构静强度设计、焊缝设计和焊缝工艺设计3方面提出了提高疲劳强度的设计细节,并分析了焊接结构疲劳强度设计的重要意义。     

SS3B固定重联机车的研制

系统介绍了由2节SS3B机车经过技术改造成12轴重载货运SS3B固定重联机车；重点介绍了机车的主要结构、性能参数和总体布置，同时简述了机车的主要系统和特点。试验表明，机车的改造是成功的。     

铁路传统转向架和具有轴间连接转向架的蛇行稳定性比较

将传统2轴转向架与具有轴间连接轮对导向系统的转向架进行比较,表明自重轻的轴间连接轮对导向系统,能使转向架具有较好的蛇行稳定性和曲线通过性能,从而降低了轮轨间的横向力,并减小轮轨磨耗。     

城市轨道交通各发展阶段的运行特征及在公交系统中的作用

城市轨道交通网络的形成分为三个发展阶段:成网前阶段,轨道骨架网阶段和稳定的轨道网络阶段.分析了不同发展阶段轨道交通运行特征指标的取值范围,采用客运量和客运周转量指标研究了轨道交通不同发展阶段在公共交通系统中所起的作用.     

货车制动梁运用故障分析及对策

重点对槽钢弓型杆制动梁目前存在的运用故障进行了分析,并针对故障原因提出了改进措施及建议。     

关于铁路货车L-B型制动梁制造工艺的探讨

重点从魏氏组织、原材料化学成分和焊接性能等3个方面论述了影响制动梁梁架机械性能的主要因素,对梁架加工过程中产生不合格的原因进行了分析,并提出了改进建议。