Comparing different contour methods with response-based methods for extreme ship response analysis

Environmental contours are often applied in probabilistic structural reliability analysis to identify extreme environmental conditions that may give rise to extreme loads and responses. They facilitate approximate long term analysis of critical structural responses in situations where computationally heavy and time-consuming response calculations makes full long-term analysis infeasible. The environmental contour method identifies extreme environmental conditions that are expected to give rise to extreme structural response of marine structures. The extreme responses can then be estimated by performing response calculations for environmental conditions along the contours.Response-based analysis is an alternative, where extreme value analysis is performed on the actual response rather than on the environmental conditions. For complex structures, this is often not practical due to computationally heavy response calculations. However, by establishing statistical emulators of the response, using machine learning techniques, one may obtain long time-series of the structural response and use this to estimate extreme responses.In this paper, various contour methods will be compared to response-based estimation of extreme vertical bending moment for a tanker. A response emulator based on Gaussian processes regression with adaptive sampling has been established based on response calculations from a hydrodynamic model. Long time-series of sea-state parameters such as significant wave height and wave period are used to construct N-year environmental contours and the extreme N-year response is estimated from numerical calculations for identified sea states. At the same time, the response emulator is applied on the time series to provide long time-series of structural response, in this case vertical bending moment of a tanker. Extreme value analysis is then performed directly on the responses to estimate the N-year extreme response. The results from either method will then be compared, and it is possible to evaluate the accuracy of the environmental contour method in estimating the response. Moreover, different contour methods will be compared.     

舰艇激振和航迹响应实验研究

船舶振动研究在现代船舶上正得到了越来越广泛的应用.内河船一般吃水较小,螺旋桨与船壳的间隙很小,而转速又很高,加上伴流的不均匀,使螺旋桨的激振力加大,对船舶的性能产生很大影响,振动问题更加突出.文章以某舰艇作为主要研究对象,用实验得到的舰艇固有频率和实船振动水平,为作者编制的相近类型船艇振动预报软件提供了检验实例.结果令人满意.     

浅水中浮式栈桥单浮箱系泊系统及运动响应特性

基于三维势流理论,利用水动力分析软件AQWA对浅水中浮式栈桥单浮箱系泊系统及运动响应进行研究。对初步设计的多种系泊系统进行优选,并计算浮箱在最优系泊系统下的运动响应幅值算子RAO。结果表明:聚酯缆材料极易疲劳破坏,浅水中交叉型半张紧式锚链系泊表现出良好的系泊性能。浮箱的振幅响应算子RAO与波浪周期变化及波浪作用方向有不可分割的关系,当波浪入射角为120°~150°时,浮箱的纵荡及纵摇RAO较大。为保证较小的垂荡值,浮箱布置可沿入射波方向。为保证较小的首摇角,浮箱布置应避免与来浪呈120°的入射角。     

The Downs–Thomson Paradox with responsive transit service

Downs (1962) and Thomson (1977) suggested that highway capacity expansion may produce counterproductive effects on the two-mode (auto and transit) transport system (Downs–Thomson Paradox). This paper investigates the occurrence of this paradox when transit authority can have different economic objectives (profit-maximizing or breakeven) and operating schemes (frequency, fare, or both frequency and fare). For various combinations of economic objectives and operating schemes, the interaction between highway expansion and transit service is explored, as well as its impact on travelers’ mode choices and travel utilities. Further, for each combination, the conditions for occurrence of the Downs–Thomson Paradox are established. We show that the paradox never occurs when transit authority is profit-maximizing, but it is inevitable when the transit authority is running to maximize travelers’ utility while maintaining breakeven. This is because the former transit authority tends to enhance transit service (e.g., raise frequency or reduce fare) when facing an expanded highway; and on the contrary, the latter tends to compromise transit service (e.g., reduce frequency or raise fare). Both analytical and numerical examples are provided to verify the theoretical results.     

沉管隧道地震响应分析

文章采用田村重四郎和冈本舜三提出的沉埋隧道地震响应分析的数学模型,对南京长江越江隧道(沉管段)方案进行了地震响应的纵向受力分析。分析中采用了隧址处100年超越概率为2%的人工合成地震加速度,考虑了不同管段的联结方式和不同的计算参数,对初步设计中沉管段结构的安全性进行了论证,所提供的数据曾为设计单位所采纳[1]。     

Geometric design safety estimation based on tire–road side friction

A closed-loop drive–vehicle–road–environment system (DVRES) model was established using Adams/Car and Matlab/Simulink. Dynamic responses of lateral tire forces based on tire–road side friction and road geometric characteristics are used to investigate vehicle side slip for geometric design safety estimation. The root mean square, the maximum values of lateral tire forces, comfort limit on curves and vehicle trajectories are used to quantify the safety margin of side friction. The simulation results show that the safety margins of lateral tire forces for radius, operating speed and superelevation rate were 18.2%, 19.3% and 17.6%, respectively, to guarantee good vehicle lateral reliability and ride comfort, while lower speeds are optimal in wet and slippery roads. Finally, a case study was conducted to illustrate the analysis of road design safety, and on-site experiment testing further validated the accuracy and reliability of the closed-loop DVRES model.     

管道主要风险的失效频率数据分析

对其他国家地区管道运输发展中管道所发生的事故进行研究,尝试对一些事故报告数据进行分析,研究它们的特性.借鉴其他管道系统的事故原因,列出了管道类型初步分类应考虑的条件和面临的主要风险.认为对管道类别应该有区别地划分.     

The accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice setting: A re-examination and some controversial conclusions

Data is typically gathered from an individual respondent who represents the group or the household. This individual is often identified as the “primary decision maker” and is asked to provide responses as a proxy for the group given that the cost of interviewing each member individually is impractical and/or expensive. The collection of joint preferences is rarely undertaken, with the use of proxy responses not uncommon in travel behaviour research. Under such a framework, there exists an assumption that the primary decision maker has perfect knowledge of other group member preferences, and bargaining behaviour, and is able to synthesise this information when providing a response on their behalf. The validity of such an assumption however remains an open question, with recent research calling the reliability of proxy responses into account (Bateman and Munro, 2009). In this paper, using three models estimated in willingness to pay space, we examine the accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice experiment. We find that there is overlap between a proxy response and the own preferences of the individual providing the proxy choice, but while the proxy responses fail to represent the full preference heterogeneity that exists in the actual choices made by individuals, the proxy responses in aggregate provide a suitable replacement for actual data, subject to a number of caveats.     

云南省高速公路气象灾害风险特征分析与应对

利用2013年～2015年云南省15条主要高速公路气象灾害风险普查和2016年高速公路气象敏感度调查数据,研究了云南省高速公路主要气象灾害风险特征、灾害成因,并提出了应对措施。研究结果表明:(1)云南省高速公路气象灾害隐患点主要集中在昆明、曲靖、楚雄、玉溪、普洱、文山和昭通北部等地区,从区域分布看,曲靖的隐患点数量最多为16个,从路段看,G56杭瑞高速隐患点数量最多为30个;(2)路面结冰、大雾、强降雨和团雾是影响云南省高速公路的主要气象灾害,占总数的94.4%,道路结冰是造成交通部门封路的主要气象灾害,占云南3年总封路次数的58.1%;(3)云南高速公路交通气象灾害主要是由于独特的地形、干湿分明的季节变化和相应的天气系统造成的;(4)制定了云南省高速公路气象灾害预警指标,并提出行车建议。