The multinomial logit model revisited: A semi-parametric approach in discrete choice analysis

The multinomial logit model in discrete choice analysis is widely used in transport research. It has long been known that the Gumbel distribution forms the basis of the multinomial logit model. Although the Gumbel distribution is a good approximation in some applications such as route choice problems, it is chosen mainly for mathematical convenience. This can be restrictive in many other scenarios in practice. In this paper we show that the assumption of the Gumbel distribution can be substantially relaxed to include a large class of distributions that is stable with respect to the minimum operation. The distributions in the class allow heteroscedastic variances. We then seek a transformation that stabilizes the heteroscedastic variances. We show that this leads to a semi-parametric choice model which links the linear combination of travel-related attributes to the choice probabilities via an unknown sensitivity function. This sensitivity function reflects the degree of travelers’ sensitivity to the changes in the combined travel cost. The estimation of the semi-parametric choice model is also investigated and empirical studies are used to illustrate the developed method.     

Experimental design influences on stated choice outputs: An empirical study in air travel choice

Discrete choice experiments are conducted in the transport field to obtain data for investigating travel behaviour and derived measures such as the value of travel time savings. The multinomial logit (MNL) and other more advanced discrete choice models (e.g., the mixed MNL model) have often been estimated on data from stated choice experiments and applied for planning and policy purposes. Determining efficient underlying experimental designs for these studies has become an increasingly important stream of research, in which the objective is to generate stated choice tasks that maximize the collected information, yielding more reliable parameter estimates. These theoretical advances have not been rigorously tested in practice, such that claims on whether the theoretical efficiency gains translate into practice cannot be made. Using an extensive empirical study of air travel choice behaviour, this paper presents for the first time results of different stated choice experimental design approaches, in which respective estimation results are compared. We show that D-efficient designs keep their promise in lowering standard errors in estimating, thereby requiring smaller sample sizes, ceteris paribus, compared to a more traditional orthogonal design. The parameter estimates found using an orthogonal design or an efficient design turn out to be statistically different in several cases, mainly attributed to more or less dominant alternatives existing in the orthogonal design. Furthermore, we found that small designs with a limited number of choice tasks performs just as good (or even better) than a large design. Finally, we show that theoretically predicted sample sizes using the so-called S-estimates provide a good lower bound. This paper will enable practitioners in better understanding the potential benefits of efficient designs, and enables policy makers to make decisions based on more reliable parameter estimates.     

数字高斯白噪声的频域和时域特性分析

分析了数字高斯白噪声在频域的频谱特性和在时间域的统计特性,提出在数字处理速度一定时,随着输出噪声频域带宽的增加,输出噪声的时间统计特性不再符合高斯分布.通过增加滤波器阶数可以提高噪声的时间统计特性,但是将增加输出噪声的带内波动.通过计算机仿真验证了上述的理论分析,并给出了频域和时域特性都满足相应要求的带宽范围实验值.     

城市公路客运站选址与班线分配方法研究

以旅客出行的时间消耗降最低为目标,兼顾客运站的建设成本和经营效益,建立公路客运站的选址与班线分配模型。通过遗传算法求解,并请专家对最好的几组计算结果予以评估和修正,得到客运站的最优选址和班线分配方案。     

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在城市轨道交通的线路网络形成、实行一票换乘并伴随投资主体多元化时,需要建立公平公正的票务清分机制,本文提出一个基于乘客旅行实际时间分布计算各路径上乘客比例的新方法.根据交通卡中的进出站的时间记录,计算出在一段时间内在一对出入站之间完成旅行的所有乘客的时间分布,以这个分布为依据计算在这段时间里各路径上的乘客比例.采用数值模拟的方法在一对有两条有效路径的出入站间产生乘客旅行时间的数据,然后根据这些数据进行客流比例计算.结果表明,即使两条路径的运营时间差异很小也能实现较准确的比例划分,这种动态计算客流分布的方法能更准确地反映实际客流分布.     

平面二次包络环面蜗杆传动强度计算

为了简化平面二次包络环面蜗杆传动承载能力的计算方法,基于Hertz理论,应用线性回归法和插值法,推导了平面二次包络环面蜗杆传动接触强度计算公式;考虑齿间载荷分配系数的影响,修正了普通圆柱蜗杆传动弯曲强度计算公式;根据蜗杆副有限元网格模型,分析了轮齿应力分布.结果表明:解析式计算的平面二次包络环面蜗杆传动接触强度(弯曲强度)比有限元分析结果大6%~16%,满足工程使用的要求;蜗轮齿面接触应力沿接触线呈倾斜L型分布;蜗杆载荷从1 N.m增大至额定值时,5对齿啮合的最大齿间载荷分配从32.4%降至27.5%.     

重载交通沥青路面山区小半径曲线段病害特征分析

为了更好的分析小半径曲线段沥青路面病害特征,对重载交通条件下直线段和不同半径（35m/50m/65m）弯道段汽车横向轮迹荷载分布进行了调研和分析,得出了直线段和不同半径弯道段轮迹荷载横向分布特征,以此为依据分析认为小半径弯道沥青路面病害主要为疲劳网裂、水损害,研究了病害的产生机理,并结合沥青路面设计、施工给出了相应的建...     

居住区空间模式与道路规划设计

针对目前中国大量采用大规模封闭式居住区空间模式,以及有些城市由于交通拥堵而进行的道路"私"改"公"现象,分析了居住区空间模式的发展过程及当前存在的问题.借鉴国外的发展趋势与经验,给出了适合中国情况的居住区空间模式及相应的道路规划设计原则,提出了基于道路交通的居住区多层次空间模式规划设计方法,并从空间规模、行车速度与交通...     

小学生上下学出行特征分析与管理策略

小学生上下学交通是城市居民出行的重要组成部分,由于家长接送学生时私人小汽车的停放以及机非混合,严重影响了学校门口的交通运行。以小学生上下学出行为研究对象,结合某小学的分层抽样OD调查数据,研究小学生上下学出行方式,并与美国小学生的出行方式进行对比;采集学校所在路段的交通量,绘制12 h交通量时变曲线,与无学校影响的、类似路段的交通量时变曲线进行对比,揭示学校所在路段交通量波动特征和上下学出行结构特征。在出行结构分析和交通量分析基础上,从出行结构和供需关系两方面提出改善小学生上下学交通的管理策略。